Capstone Partners Reports: Consumer M&A Market Rebound Realized in 2024, Poised to Accelerate in 2025

Rhea-AI Summary

Capstone Partners has released its Annual Consumer M&A Report, revealing a significant rebound in Consumer M&A activity during 2024 with promising outlook for 2025. The report highlights that approximately 70% of consumer M&A was conducted by corporations, while private equity accounted for ~30%, indicating strong corporate confidence in M&A as an ROI strategy.

In the public markets, sectors like Tactical, Home Goods, E-Commerce, and Sports Technology outperformed the S&P 500's 24% return in 2024. The ISM Manufacturing Index reached 50.9 in January 2025, marking the first expansion in 26 months, with new orders hitting their highest levels since 2022.

The report notes a rotation from Consumer Staples to Consumer Discretionary, with discretionary companies outperforming staples in recent months. Nearly two-thirds of middle market CEOs express optimism for 2025, up from 60% the previous year. The market is expected to strengthen further in 2025, driven by over $1 trillion in private equity dry powder and public companies actively pursuing strategic acquisitions.

Positive

• Consumer M&A volume rebounded YOY in 2024
• 70% of consumer M&A driven by corporate strategic acquisitions
• ISM Manufacturing Index showed first expansion in 26 months
• Multiple sectors outperformed S&P 500's 24% return
• CEO confidence increased to nearly two-thirds positive outlook

Negative

• Most consumer sectors underperformed the S&P 500 in 2024
• Inflation concerns remain for Consumer Discretionary rotation
• Private equity participation in M&A remained low at 30%

BOSTON, March 25, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Capstone Partners, a leading middle market investment banking firm, released its Annual Consumer M&A Report, which shares insights into public market valuations, the macroeconomic climate, merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, and an outlook for 2025 industry activity. With extensive knowledge and transaction experience, Capstone Partners' Consumer Investment Banking Team provides unique commentary on 14 key sectors: Apparel, Footwear, & Accessories; Automotive Aftermarket; Beauty; Beverage; Convenience Store & Fuel Distribution; E-Commerce; Food; Home Goods; Outdoor Recreation & Enthusiasts; Pest Control; Pet; Sports Technology; Tactical Products; and Vitamins & Supplements.

Capstone believes several improvements in the Consumer industry M&A markets in 2024 indicate the market is primed for a significant increase in activity and valuations in 2025. In 2024, Consumer M&A volume rebounded year-over-year (YOY) and saw a slight increase in overall M&A valuations. Getting behind the numbers, we see the majority of consumer M&A transactions were driven by corporations making strategic acquisitions. In 2024, approximately 70% of all consumer M&A was conducted by corporations compared to ~30% from private equity funds. This is a positive sign as it shows corporate America, at least in the Consumer world, views M&A as a good return on investment (ROI) strategy.

Interestingly, public consumer stocks have performed inconsistently. Only a few sectors including Tactical, Home Goods, E-Commerce, and Sports Technology have beaten the S&P 500 return of 24% in 2024. These sectors are not typical harbingers of a great market in Consumer. Key indicators are certainly doing well, with moderating inflation and healthy GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth throughout 2024. Of note, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index rose to 50.9 in January 2025, beating market estimates and recording the first U.S. Manufacturing sector expansion in 26 months, according to an ISM report.¹ New orders reached the highest level since 2022 and increased by 3% compared to December, signaling accelerating customer demand. Sentiment among middle market business owners in the Consumer space appears to reflect these positive market signals. Nearly two-thirds of middle market CEOs have a positive outlook for the Consumer industry in 2025, compared to 60% in the prior year, according Capstone's 2024 Middle Market Business Owners Survey.

We are keeping a close eye on the start of a rotation from Consumer Staples to the Consumer Discretionary space in the public markets. The historically slower growing, more defensive S&P 500 Consumer Staples index outperformed its counterpart, the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary index, 81.8% of the days in the three years since the M&A market entered its downturn in 2022. More recently, discretionary companies outperformed staples in the past 70 days, ending February 6. The historical precedent suggests discretionary players realize outsized value appreciation in strong markets, characterized by resurgent discretionary spending and rising consumer confidence. When looking at the relationship between the two Consumer industry constituents and consumer confidence over the past 26 years, the average discretionary index value growth has been roughly three points higher than the average staples index value growth when consumer confidence increases. A stronger underlying growth profile and rebounding consumer confidence may provide some long-awaited tailwinds in the discretionary side of the industry and add proverbial fuel to the fire for Consumer industry M&A in 2025. A key question remains: how will inflation impact this swing?

"We believe the spark that will ignite a rally in 2025 is the combination of 1) private equity deploying more than $1 trillion of dry powder that has been sitting on the sidelines and 2) public consumer companies actively pursuing prized brands in their sectors ahead of a booming economy," said Capstone's Head of Consumer Investment Banking Ken Wasik, the lead contributor in the report.

Also included in this report:

• How M&A volumes and public market valuations in the Consumer industry fared in 2024.
• A detailed analysis of M&A valuation drivers for consumer companies.
• What trends are driving M&A activity across the Consumer industry and a breakdown of each of the 14 highlighted sectors.
• Expectations for Consumer industry performance and M&A in North America in 2025.
• Which sectors outperformed the broader Consumer industry and are poised to garner buyer interest in 2025.

To access to full report, click here.

ABOUT CAPSTONE PARTNERS

For over 20 years, the firm has been a trusted advisor to leading middle market companies, offering a fully integrated range of investment banking and financial advisory services uniquely tailored to help owners, investors, and creditors through each stage of the company's lifecycle.  Capstone's services include M&A advisory, debt and equity placement, corporate restructuring, special situations, valuation and fairness opinions and financial advisory services.  Headquartered in Boston, the firm has 175+ professionals in multiple offices across the U.S. With 12 dedicated industry groups, Capstone delivers sector-specific expertise through large, cross-functional teams.  Capstone is a subsidiary of Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (NASDAQ:HBAN).  For more information, visit www.capstonepartners.com.

Endnotes:

1. Institute for Supply Management, "Report on Business," https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/pmi/3yet202501pmi.pdf, accessed February 18, 2025.

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SOURCE Capstone Partners

FAQ

What was the Consumer M&A market performance in 2024?

Consumer M&A volume rebounded year-over-year in 2024, with corporations driving 70% of transactions and slight increases in overall valuations.

Which consumer sectors outperformed the S&P 500 in 2024?

Tactical, Home Goods, E-Commerce, and Sports Technology sectors exceeded the S&P 500's 24% return in 2024.

What is the Consumer industry outlook for 2025?

The outlook is positive with expected acceleration in M&A activity, supported by $1 trillion in private equity dry powder and increased corporate acquisition activity.

How has the ISM Manufacturing Index performed in early 2025?

The ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 50.9 in January 2025, marking the first U.S. Manufacturing sector expansion in 26 months.

What is the sentiment among middle market CEOs for 2025?

Nearly two-thirds of middle market CEOs have a positive outlook for the Consumer industry in 2025, up from 60% in the previous year.