HONEYWELL FORECAST SHOWS DEMAND FOR NEW BUSINESS JETS AT RECORD LEVELS, CONTINUED GROWTH EXPECTED FOR NEXT DECADE

Rhea-AI Summary

Honeywell (NASDAQ: HON) published its 34th Global Business Aviation Outlook forecasting 8,500 new business jet deliveries worth $283 billion over the next decade, a record in the report's history and a 3% average annual growth rate. The firm expects 2026 deliveries to be 5% higher than 2025. Survey highlights show 91% of operators plan to fly the same or more in 2026, 20% of operators globally have a firm order (up from 17%), and fractional fleets have grown 65% since 2019 to ~1,300 aircraft. Regional forecasts allocate roughly 70% of near-term deliveries to North America, 14% to Europe, 7% to Latin America, and smaller shares to Asia-Pacific and MEA. Sustainability actions emphasize fuel-efficient aircraft and SAF adoption, with cost and availability cited as barriers.

Positive

• Forecast: 8,500 new jets valued at $283B over 10 years
• Near-term: 2026 deliveries +5% versus 2025
• Fractional fleets +65% since 2019 (~1,300 aircraft)
• Operator intent: 91% expect same or more flying in 2026

Negative

• Regional concentration: 70% of near-term deliveries to North America
• SAF adoption constrained by cost and availability
• Purchasing focus shift may pressure pre-owned market as buyers favor new aircraft

Insights

Aerospace Industry Strategist

Honeywell's outlook points to record business‑jet demand driven by fractional growth and a tax incentive, lifting near‑term delivery expectations.

Honeywell projects 8,500 new business‑jet deliveries valued at $283 billion over the next decade, with an average annual growth of 3% and a forecasted 5% rise in 2026 deliveries versus 2025. The survey data show strong utilization trends—91% of operators expect to fly the same or more in 2026—and rising purchase intent, with 20% of operators holding firm orders and fractional fleets up roughly 65% since 2019.

These facts imply sustained equipment demand that supports OEM production plans and aftermarket services. Key dependencies include continued operator willingness to place orders and the tax treatment that restored 100% bonus depreciation, which the report links to increased purchase activity. Watch near‑term order flow and quarterly OEM production announcements over the next 12–36 months to see if survey intent converts into delivered orders and sustained utilization gains.

• 34th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook projects 8,500 new business jet deliveries valued at $283 billion over the next decade
• Purchase plan growth fueled by fractional operators and new tax law
• Aircraft utilization continues to grow as vast majority of operators plan on flying more or the same as they did this year

LAS VEGAS, Oct. 13, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Honeywell (NASDAQ: HON) today published its 34th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook, which forecasts a record-setting number of new business jet deliveries over the next decade. The report provides unique insights into current industry trends and longer-cycle developments based on forecasting models and surveys of hundreds of business aviation operators across the globe.

Within the report, Honeywell predicts 8,500 new business jets with a projected value of $283 billion – the highest in the report's 34-year history – will be delivered over the next 10 years with an average annual growth rate of 3%. The strong demand for new jets continues to persist against a backdrop of increasingly complex macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. However, those factors have not slowed down the demand for new aircraft.

"The combination of recent economic growth, increasing demand for fractional ownership and a steady cadence of new aircraft development and technology upgrades have produced record levels of demand in business aviation," said Heath Patrick, president, Americas Aftermarket, Honeywell Aerospace Technologies. "Operators are increasing their usage rates and in turn manufacturers are continuing to ramp up production to keep pace with growing demand. Over the next decade, we expect these record-setting levels of deliveries and usage to continue."

Key findings in the 2025 Honeywell Global Business Aviation Outlook include:

• New business jet deliveries in 2026 are expected to be 5% higher than in 2025.
• New business jet deliveries are expected to grow by 3% annually on average over the next 10 years.
• 91% of those surveyed expect to fly more or about the same in 2026 compared to 2025.
• 20% of operators globally have at least one aircraft on firm order – up from 17% a year ago. The figure was higher in 2025 for the subset of Part 135 and equivalent operators (private jet charters, for example), where 28% of respondents mentioned they have an aircraft on firm order.
• 89% of respondents consider "Performance" among their top three most important criteria when purchasing an aircraft, which compares with 82% from last year's survey. "Cost" remains a distant second at 56%, which is down slightly from 60% last year.
• Demand for fractional ownership continues to lead industry growth with Midsize and Super Midsize being the jets of choice for these customers. Among those surveyed, 12% of operators of wholly owned business aircraft say they also own fractional shares.
• Fractional fleets have grown more than 65% since 2019 to roughly 1,300 aircraft now in service.

Growth from fractional operators, new economic policy contributing to higher demand

• Operators surveyed indicated that the return of 100% bonus depreciation following the signing of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) earlier this year is expected to spur additional business aircraft purchase activity. This federal tax incentive allows businesses to deduct a large portion of the cost of certain assets – including business jets – in the year they are put into use.
  
  
• According to the survey findings, strong demand for fractional ownership is fueling large orders and contributing significantly to industry growth. The fractional ownership market has continued to outpace the industry in terms of growth, both in fleet sizes and flight activity. In fact, fractional fleets have grown more than 65% since 2019. Light, midsize and super midsize jets comprise 80% of these fractional fleets.
  
  
• While 12% of current operators of wholly owned aircraft said they also own fractional shares, 15% more said they are considering purchasing them in the future. When asked for reasons why they are considering purchasing these shares, nearly 50% of respondents said they would increase the overall flying capacity of their operation and 30% said they would use their fractional program to optimize their current flight operations.

Flight Activity: Strong year-over-year growth in 2025

• Operators are flying their aircraft noticeably more in 2025 when compared to 2024, with business jet flight hours up about 3% year over year after flight hours were virtually flat from 2023 to 2024. This growth is derived primarily from private operators and fractional ownership companies, where demand for charter flights has stabilized well above 2019 levels after fluctuating throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and the return of regularly scheduled airline routes.
  
  
• Corporate flight departments continue to lag in flight activity as they seek to optimize various cost elements of their flight operations. This is often achieved through selective use of wholly owned aircraft, charter flights, and fractional ownership.
  
  
• When asked, operators expressed optimism about their outlook for future flight activity, with 28% saying they plan to fly more next year compared to this year and 64% saying they plan to fly about the same over the same time.

Regional Breakdown: Recent delivery trends continue

• North America: North America is expected to receive roughly 70% of new jet deliveries over the next three years as 17% of operators have aircraft on firm order and the region comprises a massive 62% of the global fleet. There is optimistic sentiment from operators in North America driven by regulation changes in the U.S. headlined by bonus depreciation. Operators in the region follow the global trend of flight activity optimism, with just over 90% saying they plan to fly either the same or more hours over the next year.
  
  
• Europe: Europe is expected to receive about 14% of new jet deliveries over the next three years, and the portion of operators with aircraft on order is higher than the global average. Europe maintains 11% of the global business aviation fleet, but 29% of these operators state that they have at least one aircraft on firm order. The flight activity sentiment mirrors the global trends with nearly 30% of operators expecting to fly more in the coming year and about 60% expecting to fly the same.
  
  
• Latin America: Latin America will accept 7% of global new jet deliveries over the next three years. 15% of the global fleet is based in the region and 19% of current operators there said they have aircraft on firm order. These operators tend to be more optimistic about their flight activity growth in the coming year, with 33% of them anticipating an increase.
  
  
• Remainder of the world: Asia-Pacific and the Middle East & Africa regions are forecasted to receive 5% and 3% of global deliveries, respectively. Both regions have hovered around these levels for the past few years, and the trend is expected to continue. Operators in these regions are less bullish on flight activity growth than the other regions, but still nearly 20% of the region's current operators expect to fly more, with most of the remainder still expecting to fly about the same amount in the coming year. The Middle East is poised for growth as positive regulatory changes and improvements to airport infrastructure will make it easier for business aviation entities to establish operations in and fly throughout the region.

Aircraft Purchase Priorities: Performance and cost remain king

• Aircraft performance and cost continue to be the two primary purchase drivers for buyers of business aircraft, with aircraft range being the single most important specification. Other aircraft performance-related specifications such as payload, field performance and speed rank near the top of the list of purchase drivers.
  
  
• Buyers surveyed who are purchasing new aircraft prioritize customer support and technology more than buyers of pre-owned aircraft. Specifically, buyers of new aircraft place higher value on good response time and technical support when compared with buyers of pre-owned aircraft.
  
  
• When asked about aircraft technology, buyers of new aircraft said they consider advancements in fly-by-wire controls, connectivity and advanced safety features in their purchase decisions more than buyers of pre-owned aircraft.

Sustainability in Business Aviation: More fuel-efficient aircraft key to environmental improvements

For the fifth consecutive year, Honeywell also conducted an analysis of sustainability in business aviation and examined how operators are trying to lower their carbon footprint. Key findings in the report include:

• 81% of operators believe that developing new, more fuel-efficient aircraft and engines is at least moderately effective in helping to achieve sustainability goals.
• 61% think sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is at least moderately effective in reaching those same goals.
• Among those who are taking proactive steps to improve the sustainability of their operations, 60% are acquiring more fuel-efficient aircraft, 56% are using SAF and 31% are flying at more efficient cruise speeds.
• Regarding the adoption of SAF, cost and availability of the fuel continue to be the largest challenges.

Click here to request a copy  of Honeywell's 2025 Global Business Aviation Outlook.

Methodology

Honeywell's forecast methodology is based on multiple sources, including macroeconomic analyses, original equipment manufacturers' production and development plans shared with the company, expert deliberations with aerospace industry leaders and detailed analysis of Cirium and WINGX industry data. Honeywell, in partnership with Seefeld Group and Ad Hoc Research, also conducted surveys of business aviation operators comprising 312 nonfractional operators representing a fleet of 1,199 business aircraft worldwide. The survey sample is representative of the entire industry in terms of geography, operation and fleet composition. This comprehensive approach provides Honeywell with unique insights into operator sentiments, preferences and concerns and provides considerable intelligence on product development needs and opportunities.

Making an impact on business decisions

Honeywell's Global Business Aviation Outlook reflects current operator concerns and identifies longer-cycle trends that Honeywell uses in its own product decision process. The survey has helped to identify opportunities for investments in sustainability solutions, enhance aircraft connectivity offerings, and expand propulsion offerings, innovative safety products, services and upgrades. The survey informs Honeywell's business pursuit strategy and helps consistently position the company on high-value platforms in growth sectors.

About Honeywell

Products and services from Honeywell Aerospace Technologies are found on virtually every commercial, defense and space aircraft, and in many terrestrial systems. The Aerospace Technologies business unit builds aircraft engines, cockpit and cabin electronics, wireless connectivity systems, mechanical components, power systems, and more. Its hardware and software solutions create more fuel-efficient aircraft, more direct and on-time flights and safer skies and airports. For more information, visit aerospace.honeywell.com or follow Honeywell Aerospace Technologies on LinkedIn.

Honeywell is an integrated operating company serving a broad range of industries and geographies around the world. Our business is aligned with three powerful megatrends – automation, the future of aviation and energy transition – underpinned by our Honeywell Accelerator operating system and Honeywell Forge IoT platform. As a trusted partner, we help organizations solve the world's toughest, most complex challenges, providing actionable solutions and innovations through our Aerospace Technologies, Industrial Automation, Building Automation and Energy and Sustainability Solutions business segments that help make the world smarter and safer as well as more secure and sustainable. For more news and information on Honeywell, please visit www.honeywell.com/newsroom.

This release contains certain statements that may be deemed "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, that address activities, events or developments that we or our management intends, expects, projects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. Such statements are based upon certain assumptions and assessments made by our management in light of their experience and their perception of historical trends, current economic and industry conditions, expected future developments and other factors they believe to be appropriate. The forward-looking statements included in this release are also subject to a number of material risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to economic, competitive, governmental and technological factors affecting our operations, markets, products, services and prices. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and actual results, developments and business decisions may differ from those envisaged by such forward-looking statements. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our Form 10-K and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Contacts:

Media
Adam Kress
(602) 760-6252
adam.kress@honeywell.com 

 

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SOURCE Honeywell International Inc.

FAQ

What does Honeywell's 2025 outlook say about new business jet deliveries for the next decade (HON)?

Honeywell forecasts 8,500 new business jet deliveries worth $283 billion over the next 10 years, averaging 3% annual growth.

How much higher are new business jet deliveries expected to be in 2026 compared with 2025 for HON?

Deliveries in 2026 are expected to be 5% higher than in 2025.

How is fractional ownership impacting demand in Honeywell's 2025 Global Business Aviation Outlook (HON)?

Fractional fleets have grown 65% since 2019 to ~1,300 aircraft and are a leading driver of purchase activity.

What percentage of operators reported they plan to fly the same or more in 2026 according to Honeywell (HON)?

91% of surveyed operators expect to fly more or about the same in 2026 versus 2025.

Which regions will receive the largest share of near-term business jet deliveries in Honeywell's forecast (HON)?

North America is forecasted to receive roughly 70% of new jet deliveries over the next three years; Europe ~14%, Latin America ~7%, Asia-Pacific ~5%, MEA ~3%.

What sustainability measures do operators prioritize in Honeywell's 2025 report (HON)?

Operators prioritize acquiring more fuel-efficient aircraft and using sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), though cost and availability remain major barriers.