Emerging Technology Could Help Manage Healthcare Costs as Spending Poised to Reach $23 Trillion by 2040, Oliver Wyman Analysis Shows
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NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
Global healthcare systems are facing a structural inflection point. Without meaningful intervention, factors including aging populations, labor shortages and system inefficiencies will increase sector spending from $11.8 trillion today to $23.1 trillion by 2040, placing unprecedented strain on healthcare systems. This is according to Oliver Wyman, a global leader in management consulting and a business of Marsh (NYSE: MRSH), which today released Unlocking the Great Health Productivity Reset, a detailed analysis quantifying the productivity potential of AI, robotics, and quantum technology for clinical care, pharma, MedTech and payers.
In 2025, global healthcare spending reached $11.8 trillion, with North America accounting for $5.5 trillion, Europe for $2.6 trillion, $1.2 trillion across Asia’s leading economies, and $2.5 trillion from other developing markets. Of the projected $11.3 trillion increase in spending, roughly $2.7 trillion is structurally locked in due to population growth. However, the larger share, around $8.6 trillion, reflects rising system inefficiencies as healthcare struggles to meet growing demand amid labour shortages, fragmented operating models, and a rising chronic disease burden. This new study shows that this measured increase in spending would outpace economic growth in most major regions and materially increase healthcare’s share of GDP.
Despite this rapid cost increase, productivity in healthcare has remained broadly flat. However, AI, automation, and robotics has the potential to offset up to 60% of these projected cost increases if their adoption is coordinated, scaled, and supported by strong institutional and policy frameworks. The convergence of these technologies presents a credible opportunity to reset healthcare productivity across clinical, administrative, and operational domains.
Using proprietary modeling and the Oliver Wyman Health Technology Use Case database, the report evaluates three adoption pathways through 2040 which include varying the speed of adoption, depth of workflow integration, and discipline of reinvestment. The results identified potential net savings of $1.1 trillion per annum (4% cost reduction) by 2040 under the incremental adoption scenario, increasing to $5.1 trillion per annum (22% reduction) in the breakthrough adoption scenario.
To unlock lasting, system-wide impact, the report highlights five critical enablers for rapid adoption: investment in technology infrastructure, stronger technology talent pipelines, reforms to reimbursement and liability frameworks, modernized innovation-friendly regulation, and a shift from labor-centric approaches to technology-enabled models across the healthcare system.
Dr. Oliver Eitelwein PH.D., Partner and Global Lead for Oliver Wyman’s Life Sciences Performance Transformation, said, “This is both an end-to-end cost-reset opportunity and a structural growth engine, especially for medical device and healthcare technology sectors. Beyond cost containment, these investments would catalyze new high-value innovation markets across AI platforms, robotics, medical devices, and data infrastructure.”
Dr. David Duong, Director of the Program in Global Primary Health Care at Harvard Medical School and Brigham and Women’s Hospital, and contributor to the report, said, “This is not primarily a financing problem; it is a productivity crisis. Global healthcare systems must shift from labor-centric models to technology-enabled redesign to sustain affordability, access, and quality, all the while supporting healthcare workers and keeping patients, families and communities at the center of care.”
About the study
This report analyzes over 200 high-impact use cases from Oliver Wyman’s Healthcare Technology Use Case Database, covering artificial intelligence, specialized and humanoid robotics, and quantum technologies. These cases underpin productivity scenarios that quantify how scaled deployment across the healthcare ecosystem, including clinical care, pharmaceuticals, medical devices, insurance, and government/public health, can reduce costs and expand capacity. The analysis also incorporates expertise from the Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing Engineering and Automation (IPA) and Mercer Marsh Benefits.
About Oliver Wyman
Oliver Wyman is a business of Marsh (NYSE: MRSH), a global leader in risk, reinsurance and capital, people and investments, and management consulting, advising clients in 130 countries. With annual revenue of $27 billion and more than 95,000 colleagues, Marsh helps build the confidence to thrive through the power of perspective. For more information, visit oliverwyman.com, or follow us on LinkedIn and X.
