Higher Rates Changed The Housing Market and These May Be the Rules Going Forward, New Realtor.com® Report

Rhea-AI Summary

Realtor.com (NWS) finds the U.S. housing market has "recalibrated" after four years of higher mortgage rates, creating persistent affordability strain despite rising inventory. Active listings rose 142.1% nationwide since January 2022 while median list price and price-per-square-foot remain elevated.

Rates peaked at 7.79% and sit near 6.10%, sustaining a lock-in effect that limits seller mobility and keeps supply uneven across regions.

Positive

• Active inventory +142.1% since Jan 2022
• Price per square foot +11.5% nationwide since Jan 2022
• Midwest median PPSF +18.7% since Jan 2022
• Northeast median PPSF +16.9% since Jan 2022

Negative

• Mortgage rates peaked at 7.79% and remain near 6.10%
• Austin median list price -17.1% since Jan 2022
• Denver median list price -14.1% since Jan 2022
• Lock-in effect over 50% of borrowers hold rates below 4%

Key Figures

Peak mortgage rate: 7.79% Current mortgage rate: 6.10% Active inventory change: 142.1% +5 more

8 metrics

Peak mortgage rate 7.79% High since January 2022 in U.S. housing market

Current mortgage rate 6.10% Quoted as current level in January 2026 report

Active inventory change 142.1% U.S. active listings change from Jan 2022 to Jan 2026

Median list price change 8.1% U.S. median list price change since Jan 2022

Median PPSF change 11.4% U.S. price per square foot change since Jan 2022

New-to-active ratio Jan 2022 85.9% Ratio of new listings to active listings, Jan 2022

New-to-active ratio Jan 2026 36.1% Ratio of new listings to active listings, Jan 2026

Delistings share of actives 7.0% Delistings as share of active listings, Jan 2026

Market Reality Check

Price: $26.55 Vol: Price at $26.55; volume 1...

low vol

$26.55 Last Close

Volume Price at $26.55; volume 1,091,767 vs 20-day average 1,679,548 (relative volume 0.65x). low

Technical Trading below 200-day MA at $31.48, and about 25.38% under the 52-week high of $35.58.

Peers on Argus

NWS rose 1.37% as several peers were also positive: NWSA +1.63%, WMG +2.47%, FOX...

NWS rose 1.37% as several peers were also positive: NWSA +1.63%, WMG +2.47%, FOXA +1.33%, TKO +0.97%, while ROKU was flat. Despite broad peer gains, the momentum scanner did not flag a sector-wide move.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Feb 20 (Neutral)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Feb 20	Event marketing update	Neutral	+1.3%	Announcement of Realtor.com Open House during SXSW with cultural and industry events.
Feb 19	Employee benefit initiative	Neutral	-0.3%	Company to match U.S. government’s $1,000 children’s investment account contribution.
Feb 17	Rental market report	Neutral	+1.2%	Realtor.com data showing 7.6% vacancy and 1.5% YoY rent decline to $1,672.
Feb 12	New-home pricing trends	Neutral	-4.1%	Report that new-home price cuts outpaced existing homes, with key listing metrics.
Feb 11	Leadership appointment	Neutral	-1.6%	Dow Jones named Ben Levisohn editor in chief of Barron’s, citing subscription growth.

Pattern Detected

Recent company and Realtor.com news items have prompted relatively modest, mixed price moves, suggesting incremental sentiment shifts rather than large re-ratings on individual headlines.

Recent Company History

Over the past weeks, NWS has issued several Realtor.com® housing reports and corporate updates. A rent report on Feb 17, 2026 and an SXSW Open House announcement on Feb 20, 2026 coincided with small gains. Other items, such as new-home price reduction trends on Feb 12, 2026 and leadership changes at Barron’s on Feb 11, 2026, saw modest declines. Today’s housing-market dynamics report fits this pattern of data-heavy releases influencing the stock only incrementally.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement details how four years of higher mortgage rates reshaped U.S. housing, with active...

Analysis

This announcement details how four years of higher mortgage rates reshaped U.S. housing, with active inventory up 142.1% since January 2022 yet median list prices up 8.1% and PPSF up 11.4%. It highlights lock-in effects, regional inventory disparities, and rising delistings. For NWS, it extends Realtor.com®’s series of data-heavy reports, underscoring its role in housing analytics while emphasizing that structural affordability challenges and uneven supply remain key themes to monitor.

Key Terms

median list price, price per square foot, lock-in effect, vacancy rate, +1 more

5 terms

median list price technical

"The median list price is up 8.1% compared to January 2022..."

Median list price is the middle value of a group of asking prices when they are lined up from lowest to highest, so half the items are listed for less and half for more. For investors, it shows the typical asking price without being skewed by a few very high or very low entries—like using the middle rung on a ladder to represent an average step—helping assess market levels, compare pricing trends and spot unusual deviations.

price per square foot technical

"while price per square foot has climbed 11.4%."

Price per square foot is the amount paid for one square foot of space in a property, calculated by dividing the total price by the property's area. Investors use it like a unit price—similar to comparing the cost per slice when buying a pizza—to quickly compare value across buildings, neighborhoods or time, spot bargains or overpriced assets, and estimate potential rental or resale returns.

lock-in effect technical

"Lock In Effect At Heart of Disconnect At the heart of this disconnect is the lock-in effect."

The lock-in effect describes how customers, users, or partners become reluctant or unable to switch away from a product, service, or platform because changing would be costly, inconvenient, or risky—like staying with a phone plan because moving would mean losing contacts, apps, and setup. For investors, lock-in matters because it can create predictable revenue, pricing power, and higher long-term value, but it also concentrates risk if the locked-in product falls out of favor or becomes obsolete.

vacancy rate technical

"as the average vacancy rate rose to 7.6%, up from 7.2% in 2024."

Vacancy rate is the percentage of rentable space or units in a property or portfolio that are unoccupied at a given time, calculated by dividing empty units or square footage by the total available. For investors it signals how much rental income is being lost and how strong demand is—high vacancy is like many empty seats in a theater, suggesting lower cash flow and higher risk, while low vacancy implies steady income and healthier asset value.

pending home sales technical

"revised national pending home sales data series that applies enhanced cleaning methods..."

Pending home sales refer to homes that have been sold but where the transaction has not yet been finalized or closed. This measure indicates future activity in the housing market, helping investors gauge whether home buying is increasing or slowing down. Rising pending sales can suggest stronger demand, while falling figures may signal a slowdown in the market.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Housing Market Defined by New Dynamics, Where Higher Rates, Uneven Supply and High Prices Coexist, Challenging Affordability

AUSTIN, Texas, Feb. 23, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- January 2026 marks four years since interest rates started rising and created a shift that fundamentally altered how the U.S. housing market functions. A new report from Realtor.com^® finds that the reset some expected never fully materialized. While higher mortgage rates did cool demand and bring more homes to market, they failed to deliver broad price relief, leaving affordability strained and market dynamics behaving differently than in the past.

Four years into the high-rate era, the data suggest the housing market may be entering a more durable phase defined by higher borrowing costs, uneven supply and persistently elevated prices. According to Realtor.com^®, falling rates could ease the lock-in effect and draw more sellers back to the market, but they may also reignite buyer demand, limiting meaningful affordability gains. These competing forces point to a future where housing remains structurally tighter, even as conditions evolve.

"Four years into this higher-rate environment, it's clear that the housing market recalibrated rather than reset," said Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com^®. "Supply and demand moved in the directions economic theory would suggest, but prices proved far more resilient than many anticipated, leaving today's affordability challenges firmly in place. "Looking forward, the real test is whether market activity can normalize without reigniting price pressure. That will depend on easing lock-in, stronger new listing growth, and fewer delistings."

Since January 2022, mortgage rates climbed as high as 7.79% and currently sit near 6.10%. Over that same period, active inventory nationwide surged 142.1%, rebounding sharply from historically low levels. Yet despite a much higher cost of financing and a significant increase in available homes, national prices continued to rise. The median list price is up 8.1% compared to January 2022, while price per square foot has climbed 11.4%.

"These long-term price gains matter because they compound the affordability hit from higher mortgage rates," said Krimmel. "Even before factoring in borrowing costs, the price side of the equation adjusted much less than most expected, especially in the most supply-starved markets."

Lock In Effect At Heart of Disconnect

At the heart of this disconnect is the lock-in effect. Millions of homeowners remain anchored to ultra-low mortgage rates secured earlier in the decade, limiting the ability to sell. A recent Realtor.com analysis of outstanding mortgages shows that a substantial majority of homeowners still hold rates well below today's prevailing levels, over 50% of borrowers holding rates below 4%. For many households, moving would mean replacing a historically low mortgage with one nearly twice as expensive Looking ahead, the path out of the affordability bind remains uncertain. Falling rates could ease lock-in and bring more homes to market, but lower borrowing costs also risk reigniting demand, a potential catch-22 for buyers hoping for meaningful price relief.

"That's the tension in today's market," Krimmel said. "Lower rates could unlock more supply, but they could also bring buyers back faster than listings recover. The path to meaningful affordability relief depends on supply growing sustainably—not just demand returning. Lock-in removed a lot of discretionary buyers from the market, leaving a lot of people moving out of necessity who were less price sensitive. As those buyers eventually return and list their own home too, that will add some much needed liquidity to the market."

Market is Defined by Deep Regional Differences

The inventory recovery itself has been anything but uniform. Western and Southern markets led the rebound, with active listings up 211% in the West and 178% in the South since January 2022. In metros like Dallas, Raleigh, Austin, Denver, Tampa, and Nashville, listings have increased by more than 350%, a dramatic reversal from the early pandemic shortage.

In contrast, inventory growth has been far more muted in the Northeast (+23%) and Midwest (+68%). Some markets, including Chicago, Hartford, and New York, actually have fewer active listings today than they did four years ago.

	An Uneven Recovery: Changes from January 2022-January 2026
	Active Listings, % Chg.	Median List Price, % Chg.	Median List PPSF, % Chg.	Median Days On Market, Diff in Days	New Listings, % Chg.	Price Reduced Share, Pct. Pts.
USA	142.1 %	8.1 %	11.5 %	19	1.7 %	8.2
Northeast	22.4 %	15.3 %	17.5 %	2	-13.5 %	2.8
Midwest	67.1 %	22.0 %	18.8 %	11	-10.3 %	4.2
South	213.7 %	7.4 %	12.1 %	23	9.1 %	9.6
West	180.0 %	2.2 %	3.8 %	30	2.7 %	10.6

Despite these stark regional differences, and despite the sheer volume of new supply in many metros, price declines remained rare and shallow. Only eight major metros posted declines in list price per square foot relative to January 2022: San Francisco, Austin, Denver, San Jose, San Antonio, Washington, D.C., Sacramento, and Miami. Across the top 50 markets, prices per square foot are higher today in 42 of them and up on average in every major region, led by the Midwest (+18.7%) and Northeast (+16.9%).

"What we've learned is that the laws of supply and demand still apply, but the relationship has weakened," said Krimmel. "Even a flood of listings and much higher financing costs weren't enough to generate broad-based price relief."

Four Years of Higher Rates Affects Home Prices

On the whole, and especially recently, inventory has grown due to longer time on market for existing listings rather than inflows of new listings. In 2021 and early 2022, new listings accounted for roughly 85% to 90% of active listings in a typical month nationwide. Homes moved quickly (59 days in Jan. 2022 compared to 78 days in Jan. 2026), and inventory turned over at an unusually rapid pace (well below the pre-pandemic January norm of 84 days). By January 2026, that ratio had fallen to just 36%.

	Jan. 2022	Jan. 2023	Jan. 2024	Jan. 2025	Jan. 2026
Ratio of New Listings to Active Listings	85.9 %	46.5 %	44.3 %	39.4 %	36.1 %
Median Days on Market	59	72	69	73	78

"This shift indicates that the rise in active inventory has been driven less by a steady stream of new sellers entering the market and more by homes remaining listed for longer periods," said Krimmel.  "Sellers are patiently testing price levels and waiting for buyers, rather than pricing aggressively to move quickly."

Delistings Act as a Backstop to Price Declines

Throughout 2025, delistings increased substantially, acting as a sort of "emergency exit"  for sellers who would rather not face the reality of a shifting market. Across the last five Januaries, delistings have more than doubled as a share of active listings and quadrupled as a share of new listings.

	Delistings as a share of:
	Active Listings	New Listings
Jan. 2026	7.0 %	32.0 %
Jan. 2025	6.6 %	24.3 %
Jan. 2024	5.7 %	19.2 %
Jan. 2023	5.3 %	17.8 %
Jan. 2022	3.1 %	8.4 %

"In many cases, delisting reflects not seller distress but privilege, where today's homeowners sit on historically high levels of home equity and a strong majority have low fixed mortgage rates," said Krimmel. "That combination gives sellers flexibility and the luxury to list, delist, repeat until they get their price. As a result, rather than clearing, the market has a tendency to stall out."

	An Uneven Recovery: Changes from January 2022-January 2026
Metro	Active Listings, % Chg.	Median List Price, % Chg.	Median List PPSF, % Chg.	Median Days On Market, Diff in Days	New Listings, % Chg.	Price Reduced Share, Pct. Pts.
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA	170.2 %	2.6 %	5.1 %	19	-4.9 %	10.7
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX	384.9 %	-17.1 %	-11.4 %	45	22.3 %	9.7
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD	83.9 %	18.4 %	11.4 %	4	-9.4 %	4.4
Birmingham, AL	160.4 %	9.5 %	12.2 %	13	13.5 %	8.9
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH	61.8 %	5.8 %	7.7 %	7	-1.9 %	5.3
Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY	50.9 %	21.0 %	26.5 %	-7	-14.2 %	3.3
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC	291.1 %	3.9 %	9.3 %	39	15.8 %	10.0
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN	-1.4 %	9.4 %	7.4 %	1	-28.6 %	3.4
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN	95.2 %	10.5 %	17.3 %	2	2.8 %	5.1
Cleveland, OH	40.9 %	41.2 %	34.8 %	6	-14.8 %	6.0
Columbus, OH	131.9 %	16.7 %	14.6 %	29	0.5 %	8.5
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX	365.4 %	0.3 %	2.8 %	32	4.7 %	12.0
Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO	401.8 %	-14.1 %	-6.6 %	48	40.2 %	16.0
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI	63.3 %	14.6 %	10.0 %	11	-12.2 %	3.7
Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI	97.6 %	22.8 %	22.6 %	15.5	-12.8 %	4.7
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT	-8.6 %	18.1 %	23.0 %	-7	-38.9 %	3.2
Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX	144.2 %	-1.7 %	0.5 %	5	-0.1 %	6.5
Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN	191.0 %	9.0 %	21.5 %	26	-2.5 %	9.5
Jacksonville, FL	247.0 %	0.0 %	4.8 %	34	14.1 %	15.4
Kansas City, MO-KS	133.5 %	4.1 %	9.5 %	3	10.1 %	6.4
Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV	132.2 %	0.0 %	7.8 %	34	-12.5 %	10.9
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA	125.3 %	11.4 %	10.6 %	22	-2.1 %	7.1
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN	117.2 %	13.2 %	15.1 %	12	0.3 %	6.0
Memphis, TN-MS-AR	298.9 %	36.4 %	17.3 %	34	13.8 %	12.6
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL	201.1 %	1.0 %	-0.3 %	27	12.5 %	11.2
Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI	4.7 %	40.4 %	34.0 %	8	-11.4 %	3.0
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI	50.0 %	8.7 %	5.2 %	6	-9.2 %	5.7
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN	429.4 %	15.9 %	11.5 %	45	35.0 %	7.5
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ	-0.8 %	19.8 %	19.2 %	-3	-11.6 %	1.3
Oklahoma City, OK	232.9 %	1.7 %	6.0 %	15	-26.3 %	10.5
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL	343.0 %	4.4 %	7.8 %	45	14.5 %	14.9
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD	35.8 %	16.7 %	16.1 %	3	-13.5 %	3.9
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ	307.8 %	-2.0 %	3.1 %	38	13.9 %	18.9
Pittsburgh, PA	52.2 %	19.5 %	17.3 %	7	1.3 %	1.9
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA	202.6 %	4.5 %	1.8 %	28	-4.8 %	10.6
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA	46.3 %	22.2 %	23.9 %	15	-14.5 %	4.7
Raleigh-Cary, NC	370.5 %	3.4 %	5.1 %	41	33.0 %	11.4
Richmond, VA	99.1 %	16.9 %	20.6 %	-12	-14.3 %	7.4
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA	178.2 %	7.3 %	13.7 %	30	-1.8 %	10.4
Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA	112.0 %	-3.4 %	-0.6 %	25	-8.7 %	7.7
St. Louis, MO-IL	66.8 %	16.8 %	14.2 %	15	-10.3 %	5.6
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX	240.1 %	-5.8 %	-5.0 %	32	10.0 %	15.3
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA	171.9 %	6.0 %	11.5 %	17	-9.5 %	9.3
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA	55.5 %	-9.5 %	-13.4 %	18	-13.6 %	4.7
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA	100.4 %	-8.0 %	-5.7 %	1	7.9 %	4.2
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA	339.5 %	6.6 %	7.7 %	39.5	9.0 %	10.7
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL	414.8 %	3.8 %	4.6 %	45	20.7 %	19.1
Tucson, AZ	186.6 %	5.5 %	12.2 %	23	12.7 %	13.2
Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC	58.2 %	27.4 %	23.9 %	17	3.9 %	6.5
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV	97.2 %	8.9 %	-0.8 %	10	-9.0 %	4.8

Methodology
Realtor.com housing data as of January 2026. Listings include the active inventory of existing single-family homes and condos/townhomes/row homes/co-ops for the given level of geography on Realtor.com; new construction is excluded unless listed via an MLS that provides listing data to Realtor.com. Realtor.com data history goes back to July 2016. The 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas as defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB-202301) and Claritas 2025 estimates of household counts.

Beginning with our April 2025 report, we have transitioned to a revised national pending home sales data series that applies enhanced cleaning methods to improve consistency and accuracy over time. While the insights and commentary in this report reflect the new series, the downloadable data remains based on our legacy automated pipeline. As a result, there may be slight differences between the report figures and those in the national download file as we transition.

With the release of its January 2025 housing trends report, Realtor.com^® has restated data points for some previous months. As a result of these changes, some of the data released since January 2025 will not be directly comparable with previous data releases (files downloaded before January 2025) and Realtor.com® economics research reports. 

About Realtor.com^®
Realtor.com^® pioneered online real estate and has been at the forefront for over 25 years, connecting buyers, sellers, and renters with trusted insights, professional guidance and powerful tools to help them find their perfect home. Recognized as the No. 1 site trusted by real estate professionals, Realtor.com^® is a valued partner, delivering consumer connections and a robust suite of marketing tools to support business growth. Realtor.com^® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc.

Media contact: Mallory Micetich, press@realtor.com

View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/higher-rates-changed-the-housing-market-and-these-may-be-the-rules-going-forward-new-realtorcom-report-302693895.html

SOURCE Realtor.com

FAQ

How did Realtor.com say higher rates changed the housing market (NWS) in January 2026?

Higher rates cooled demand but did not produce broad price relief, creating persistent affordability strain. According to Realtor.com, active listings rose 142.1% since January 2022 while prices and price-per-square-foot stayed elevated, keeping affordability challenged for many buyers.

What does Realtor.com report say about mortgage rates and the lock-in effect for NWS investors?

Mortgage rates peaked at 7.79% and remain near 6.10%, sustaining a lock-in that limits seller movement. According to Realtor.com, over 50% of borrowers hold rates below 4%, reducing listings from homeowners unwilling to replace cheap mortgages.

Which markets saw the biggest inventory rebounds according to Realtor.com (NWS) January 2026?

Western and Southern metros led the inventory recovery, with listings up 211% and 178% respectively since January 2022. According to Realtor.com, metros like Dallas, Raleigh, Austin, Denver, Tampa, and Nashville saw listings increase by more than 350%.

Are national home prices lower after four years of higher rates, per Realtor.com (NWS)?

No — national prices generally rose despite higher financing costs and more listings. According to Realtor.com, median list price is up 8.1% and price per square foot rose about 11.5% since January 2022, with most top 50 metros higher.

What investor-relevant regional price diverges did Realtor.com highlight for NWS?

Some metros posted sizable declines while regions largely saw gains, creating divergence across markets. According to Realtor.com, Austin and Denver saw double-digit median price drops, while the Midwest and Northeast posted strong PPSF gains of about 18.7% and 16.9%.