Absolute Emissions from the Permian Basin Declined Nearly 20% Since 2022, Even as Oil and Gas Production Grew, New S&P Global Commodity Insights Analysis Finds

Rhea-AI Summary

S&P Global Commodity Insights (SPGI) found that absolute greenhouse gas emissions from the Permian Basin fell by 25 million metric tons CO2e (≈20%) from 2022–2024, even as oil and gas production rose by the equivalent of 500,000 barrels per day. The analysis attributes the decline mainly to improved methane detection and mitigation, with methane intensity falling by more than 50% in 2022–2024. The basin produced nearly 11 million barrels of oil in 2024 at an average GHG intensity of 22 kg CO2e/boe, though per-well intensity varied widely.

Positive

• Absolute emissions down 25 MMt CO2e (20%) 2022–2024
• Methane intensity reduced by over 50% during 2022–2024
• Production rose by 500,000 barrels/day while emissions fell
• Average GHG intensity 22 kg CO2e/boe in 2024

Negative

• Permian methane still ~two-thirds of total basin emissions
• Large per-well intensity spread: 4–160+ kg CO2e/boe
• Absolute emissions scale remains material despite declines

Insights

Emissions analyst

Permian absolute GHGs fell ~20% from 2022-2024 despite higher production; methane cuts drove the drop.

The analysis shows Permian absolute greenhouse gas emissions declined by 25 million metric tons CO2e while oil and gas output rose by the equivalent of 500,000 barrels per day, driven mainly by a >50% reduction in methane intensity and improved detection and mitigation practices. This implies operational changes and detection technologies meaningfully reduced the most potent local emissions source.

Key dependencies and risks include the persistence of improved detection and mitigation, variability across wells (intensity ranged from >160 to <4 kgCO2e/boe), and the representativeness of the observational data used. If high‑intensity assets remain, basin averages can mask localized risks that could attract regulatory or investor scrutiny.

Watch the continued trajectory of methane intensity and granular asset-level emissions over the next 12–36 months, plus any disclosures that reconcile well-by-well variation with basin averages; these items will clarify whether absolute reductions are sustainable as production changes.

HOUSTON, Oct. 9, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Absolute greenhouse gas emissions from the Permian basin—one of the most prolific oil and gas fields in the world, responsible for 40% of total production in the United States—declined every year since 2022, even as production of oil and gas increased, according to a new analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Absolute greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the Permian declined by 25 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMt CO2e) during the years 2022-2024, a 20% reduction during a period when oil and gas production increased by the equivalent of 500,000 barrels per day.

Although the GHG intensity of oil and gas activity—the ratio of emissions per barrel produced—in the basin has consistently declined over the past several years, the reduction in absolute emissions during a period of production growth was a surprise, the analysis says.

"This is a whole new ballgame," said Kevin Birn, Head of the Center for Emissions Excellence, S&P Global Commodity Insights. "Major Permian producers have a long track record of improvements from an emissions per barrel standpoint, but at the end of the day more barrels produced typically means more emissions. However, over the past few years in the Permian, more barrels came with lower emissions. It's a have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too moment."

The biggest factor in the overall emissions reduction has been the improved detection and mitigation of methane, the analysis says. A more potent greenhouse gas, methane emissions account for approximately two-thirds of total emissions in the Permian.

Improved operations, better equipment and the utilization of artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies reduced the methane intensity of Permian production by more than 50% during the 2022-2024 period, according to a previous S&P Global Commodity Insights analysis for Permian upstream methane. The scale of methane reduction outpaced the impact of production growth leading to absolute emissions declining.

"The introduction of higher quality observational data in recent years not only establishes a more credible baseline against which to measure emissions mitigation, it enables technologies and practices that allow producers to improve those efforts, or to even anticipate and prevent emissions altogether," said Raoul LeBlanc, Vice President, Global Upstream, S&P Global Commodity Insights. "Data show methane emissions management is being increasingly normalized as part of field operations and that is driving methane down."

The new analysis—which includes methane and carbon dioxide emissions to provide a more complete assessment of the GHG emissions for the Permian—finds that the basin produced nearly 11 million barrels of oil at an average GHG intensity of 22 kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent per barrel of oil equivalent produced (equivalent to 3.8gCO2e/MJ) in 2024.

However, intensity varied widely from one well to another, ranging from more than 160 kgCO2e/boe (28 gCO2e/MJ) to less than 4 kgCO2e/boe (0.69 gCO2e/MJ), reflecting the dynamic nature of production in the basin.

"The variation of intensity from one well to the next underscores the myriad factors that can impact the GHG intensity of any one asset and that an overreliance on basin-wide averages can be extremely limiting," said Shane Whipple, Emissions Insight Analyst, Center of Emissions Excellence. "Utilizing S&P Global Commodity Insights' unique capabilities, we are able to provide a level of granularity to truly understand the nature of upstream oil and gas emissions for each individual asset."

About the analysis

The S&P Global Commodity Insight's estimate of Permian emissions includes carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane emissions of upstream oil and gas operations. Coverage includes all drilling and completions (including natural gas and diesel combustion), operations, electricity imports and flaring and fugitives across the three main Permian plays: Wolfcamp Midland, Wolfcamp Delaware and Bone Springs. Midstream transportation emissions are not included.

Upstream emissions estimates make use of a complex, purpose-built bottom-up model built atop of S&P Global Commodity Insights extensive upstream database and coverage of all active wells in the Permian on a monthly basis over the entire time period presented in this study. This model is independent of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency reporting although is regularly compared against it and other public sources.

Beginning in 2022, S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates made use of methane observation data from Insight M. These data greatly increased both the volume of methane emissions and the reliability of those estimates. Estimates prior to 2022 used sophisticated calculations and factors to estimate venting and fugitive methane emissions but were notably lower quality. More information on the methane observation data used from Insight M is available here: https://view.highspot.com/viewer/651121fb7c2bcb2c1c1b9fb0f6868d3f#1  

Coverage of upstream activity is comprehensive. In 2024, coverage included all 160,000 active wells and 12,000 new wells in the Wolfcamp Midland, Wolfcamp Delaware and Bone Springs—100% of producing wells. Methane observations from Insight M for the same period included 81.8% of the 160,000 active Permian wells, (78.5% of conventional wells and 88.6% of unconventional wells). These assets supplied 90.0% of the 3.9 billion boe produced in 2024.

Insight M overflights observation data provides a level of resolution that is up to 5 times greater than that of satellites, providing reliable attribution not only by facility, but in most cases to specific assets or pieces of equipment.

Threshold for detection isn't a factor for methane estimates prior to 2022 due to the methodology model estimates. Insight M methane observations since 2022, are as low as the range of 50-10 kg/hr depending on the specific overflight. These observed volumes account for more than 68% of total methane released to the atmosphere from upstream oil and gas operations. The volumes from all sources below this threshold were estimated using the Rutherford model developed by Stanford University and included in the totals used in the analysis. More information on the methodology employed by Insight M can be found here: https://view.highspot.com/viewer/992ecc322aa7c4d80d5f6b15a4a0f2c4#1 

Global Warming Potential Factor:

S&P Global Commodity Insights conversion of methane to CO2 equivalency are based on a Global Warming Potential (GWP) factor for 100 years of 28 tons of CO2 per ton of methane. Using the 20-year factor of 86 would thus increase both the emissions reduction and the continuing emissions to 3.07 times the figures cited in this report.

Media Contacts:

Jeff Marn +1-202-463-8213, Jeff.marn@spglobal.com 

Americas: Kathleen Tanzy + 1 917-331-4607, kathleen.tanzy@spglobal.com
Asia: Melissa Tan + 65-6597-6241, melissa.tan@spglobal.com

About S&P Global Commodity Insights
At S&P Global Commodity Insights, our complete view of global energy and commodity markets enables our customers to make decisions with conviction and create long-term, sustainable value. 

We're a trusted connector that brings together thought leaders, market participants, governments, and regulators and we create solutions that lead to progress. Vital to navigating commodity markets, our coverage includes oil and gas, power, chemicals, metals, agriculture, shipping and energy transition. Platts^® products and services, including leading benchmark price assessments in the physical commodity markets, are offered through S&P Global Commodity Insights. S&P Global Commodity Insights maintains clear structural and operational separation between its price assessment activities and the other activities carried out by S&P Global Commodity Insights and the other business divisions of S&P Global. 

S&P Global Commodity Insights is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information visit https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights.

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SOURCE S&P Global Commodity Insights

FAQ

What did S&P Global Commodity Insights report about Permian emissions for 2022–2024 (SPGI)?

Absolute GHG emissions fell by 25 MMt CO2e (20%) from 2022–2024 while production rose by 500,000 bpd.

How much did methane intensity change in the Permian between 2022 and 2024 (SPGI)?

Methane intensity declined by more than 50% during the 2022–2024 period.

What was the Permian's average GHG intensity and 2024 oil production reported by SPGI (SPGI)?

In 2024 the basin averaged 22 kg CO2e/boe and produced nearly 11 million barrels of oil.

Why did absolute emissions fall even as Permian production grew (SPGI)?

Improved methane detection, mitigation, operations, equipment, and AI-driven practices lowered methane intensity enough to offset production growth.

How variable is GHG intensity across Permian wells according to SPGI (SPGI)?

Per-well intensity ranged from over 160 kg CO2e/boe to under 4 kg CO2e/boe, showing wide variation across assets.