Canadian Oil Sands Production Expected to Reach All-time Highs this Year Despite Lower Oil Prices
S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) has raised its 10-year Canadian oil sands production forecast for the fourth consecutive year. Production is expected to reach a record 3.5 million b/d in 2025, representing a 5% increase from 2024, and exceed 3.9 million b/d by 2030—500,000 barrels higher than 2024 levels.
The analysis reveals favorable economics with 2025 half-cycle break-even prices ranging from US$18/b to US$45/b, averaging US$27/b on a WTI basis. Despite lower oil prices, producers are focusing on maximizing existing assets through optimization and efficiency improvements. However, potential export capacity constraints could emerge as early as next year, presenting a downside risk to the outlook.
S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) ha aumentato per il quarto anno consecutivo la sua previsione di produzione di sabbie bituminose canadesi a 10 anni. Si prevede che la produzione raggiungerà un record di 3,5 milioni di barili al giorno nel 2025, con un aumento del 5% rispetto al 2024, superando i 3,9 milioni di barili al giorno entro il 2030, ovvero 500.000 barili in più rispetto ai livelli del 2024.
L'analisi evidenzia condizioni economiche favorevoli con prezzi di pareggio a metà ciclo nel 2025 compresi tra 18 e 45 dollari USA al barile, con una media di 27 dollari al barile basata sul WTI. Nonostante i prezzi del petrolio più bassi, i produttori si concentrano sull'ottimizzazione e sul miglioramento dell'efficienza degli asset esistenti. Tuttavia, potrebbero emergere limitazioni nella capacità di esportazione già a partire dal prossimo anno, rappresentando un rischio al ribasso per le prospettive.
S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) ha incrementado su pronóstico de producción de arenas bituminosas canadienses a 10 años por cuarto año consecutivo. Se espera que la producción alcance un récord de 3.5 millones de barriles por día en 2025, lo que representa un aumento del 5% respecto a 2024, y supere los 3.9 millones de barriles por día para 2030, 500,000 barriles más que los niveles de 2024.
El análisis muestra una economía favorable con precios de equilibrio a medio ciclo en 2025 que oscilan entre 18 y 45 dólares por barril, con un promedio de 27 dólares por barril basado en WTI. A pesar de los precios más bajos del petróleo, los productores se enfocan en maximizar los activos existentes mediante la optimización y mejoras en la eficiencia. Sin embargo, podrían surgir limitaciones en la capacidad de exportación tan pronto como el próximo año, lo que representa un riesgo a la baja para las perspectivas.
S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI)는 4년 연속으로 향후 10년간 캐나다 오일샌드 생산 전망을 상향 조정했습니다. 2025년에는 생산량이 일일 350만 배럴의 신기록에 도달할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 2024년 대비 5% 증가한 수치이고, 2030년까지는 일일 390만 배럴을 초과할 것으로 전망됩니다. 이는 2024년 수준보다 50만 배럴 더 많은 양입니다.
분석 결과 2025년 중간 주기 손익분기점 가격이
S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) a relevé pour la quatrième année consécutive ses prévisions de production des sables bitumineux canadiens sur 10 ans. La production devrait atteindre un record de 3,5 millions de barils par jour en 2025, soit une hausse de 5 % par rapport à 2024, et dépasser 3,9 millions de barils par jour d'ici 2030—soit 500 000 barils de plus que les niveaux de 2024.
L'analyse révèle une économie favorable avec des prix de seuil de rentabilité à mi-cycle en 2025 allant de 18 à 45 USD le baril, pour une moyenne de 27 USD le baril sur la base du WTI. Malgré des prix du pétrole plus bas, les producteurs se concentrent sur la maximisation des actifs existants grâce à l'optimisation et à l'amélioration de l'efficacité. Cependant, des contraintes potentielles de capacité d'exportation pourraient apparaître dès l'année prochaine, constituant un risque à la baisse pour les perspectives.
S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) hat seine 10-Jahres-Prognose für die kanadische Ölsandproduktion zum vierten Mal in Folge angehoben. Die Produktion wird voraussichtlich im Jahr 2025 einen Rekordwert von 3,5 Millionen Barrel pro Tag erreichen, was einem Anstieg von 5 % gegenüber 2024 entspricht, und bis 2030 3,9 Millionen Barrel pro Tag übersteigen – 500.000 Barrel mehr als im Jahr 2024.
Die Analyse zeigt günstige wirtschaftliche Bedingungen mit Break-even-Preisen in der Halbzyklus-Betrachtung für 2025 zwischen 18 und 45 US-Dollar pro Barrel, durchschnittlich 27 US-Dollar pro Barrel basierend auf WTI. Trotz niedrigerer Ölpreise konzentrieren sich die Produzenten darauf, bestehende Anlagen durch Optimierung und Effizienzsteigerungen maximal auszunutzen. Allerdings könnten bereits im nächsten Jahr potenzielle Engpässe bei den Exportkapazitäten auftreten, was ein Abwärtsrisiko für die Aussichten darstellt.
- Fourth consecutive upward revision to annual oil sands production outlook
- Low break-even costs averaging US$27/b for oil sands production
- Production expected to grow 5% to record 3.5 million b/d in 2025
- Significant optimization potential in existing 3.8 million b/d installed capacity
- Higher plateau level projected with 3.7 million b/d expected by 2035
- Export capacity constraints could emerge as early as next year
- Lower oil price environment in 2025 poses potential risks
- Large up-front expenditures required for new oil sands projects
Insights
S&P Global's upward revision of Canadian oil sands production reflects resilient economics despite lower oil prices, with breakeven costs as low as $18-45/barrel.
S&P Global Commodity Insights has issued its fourth consecutive upward revision for Canadian oil sands production, projecting record output of
What makes this projection particularly noteworthy is the economic resilience demonstrated by the sector. Despite a lower oil price environment, producers are achieving growth through optimization rather than new project development. The half-cycle breakeven for oil sands production ranges from
The key driver behind this resilience is the massive infrastructure installed between 2001-2017, providing ample opportunities for debottlenecking, reducing downtime, and increasing throughput. These optimization efforts often improve operational efficiency regardless of market conditions, further insulating producers from price fluctuations.
Two significant risks could derail this outlook: continued lower oil prices through 2025 and potential export constraints emerging as early as next year. Without additional pipeline capacity, transportation bottlenecks could limit the sector's ability to deliver this increased production to market—a critical concern given the higher production trajectory now expected.
S&P Global Commodity Insights Raises 10-year Oil Sands Production Outlook for 4th consecutive year
The new forecast, produced by the S&P Global Commodity Insights Oil Sands Dialogue, is the fourth consecutive upward revision to the annual outlook. Despite a lower oil price environment, the analysis attributes the increased projection to favorable economics, as producers continue to focus on maximizing existing assets through investments in optimization and efficiency.
While large up-front, out-of-pocket expenditures over multiple years are required to bring online new oil sands projects, once completed, projects enjoy relatively low breakeven prices.
S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates that the 2025 half-cycle break-even for oil sands production ranged from
"The increased trajectory for Canadian oil sands production growth amidst a period of oil price volatility reflects producers' continued emphasis on optimization—and the favorable economics that underpin such operations," said Kevin Birn, Chief Canadian Oil Analyst, S&P Global Commodity Insights. "More than 3.8 million barrels per day of existing installed capacity was brought online from 2001 and 2017. This large resource base provides ample room for producers to find debottlenecking opportunities, decrease downtime and increase throughput."
The potential for additional upside exists given the nature of optimization projects, which often result from learning by doing or emerge organically, the analysis says.
"Many companies are likely to proceed with optimizations even in more challenging price environments because they often contribute to efficiency gains," said Celina Hwang, Director, Crude Oil Markets, S&P Global Commodity Insights. "This dynamic adds to the resiliency of oil sands production and its ability to grow through periods of price volatility."
The outlook continues to expect oil sands production to enter a plateau later this decade. However, this is also expected to occur at a higher level of production than previously estimated. The new forecast expects oil sands production to be 3.7 million b/d in 2035—100,000 b/d higher than the previous outlook.
Export capacity—already a concern in recent years—is a source of downside risk now that even more production growth is expected. Without further incremental pipeline capacity, export constraints have the potential to re-emerge as early as next year, the analysis says.
"While a lower price path in 2025 and the potential for pipeline export constraints are downside risks to this outlook, the oil sands have proven able to withstand extreme price volatility in the past," said Hwang. "The low break-even costs for existing projects and producers' ability to manage challenging situations in the past support the resilience of this outlook."
* Half-cycle breakeven cost includes operating cost, the cost to purchase diluent (if needed), as well as an adjustment to enable a comparison to WTI—specifically, the cost of transport to
Media Contacts:
Jeff Marn +1-202-463-8213, Jeff.marn@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Commodity Insights
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