Liquefied Natural Gas Set to Become United States' 2nd Largest Net Export Industry within Five Years, S&P Global Energy Study Finds

Rhea-AI Summary

S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI), via S&P Global Energy, released a study projecting that growing U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports will support an average of 555,000 jobs annually and add $1.4 trillion to U.S. GDP through 2040, with $2.9 trillion in total business revenues, $206 billion in federal and state taxes and $630 billion in labor income.

The study expects U.S. LNG feedgas demand to double to 36 bcf/d within five years and forecasts LNG becoming the country’s second-largest net export industry by 2031. It also finds the impact on domestic gas prices to be negligible, with household costs rising an average of just 1.6% from 2026–2031 and U.S. prices remaining among the lowest globally.

News Explained

The disclosure changes sector expectations, not S&P Global’s capital structure, and its higher-price case remains conditional.

The July 16, 2026 release updates S&P Global Energy’s LNG study after seven new projects took final investment decisions, and estimates LNG supply-chain investment will exceed $1 trillion through 2040.

For S&P Global, the structural change is to the published sector outlook rather than its ownership or funding: this is a study disclosure, not a financing or ownership transaction.

The release attributes the higher outlook to investment following the lifting of the U.S. LNG pause in 2025; several additional projects are described as expected within the next 6–12 months. The $1 trillion figure is therefore a forecast of LNG supply-chain investment, not a disclosed cash commitment by S&P Global.

Its “Extended Pause” case is conditional: if post-2025 export capacity is not realized, the study says global LNG prices could be 50% higher in Europe and Asia by 2031, transferring up to $76 billion annually to non-U.S. suppliers.

The named milestones to monitor are final investment decisions for the additional projects and new Northeast pipeline capacity, which the study projects could reduce peak winter gas prices by more than 20% during 2028–2031.

News Market Reaction – SPGI

+2.90%

+2.90% Session close to close

In the Jul 16 session, SPGI gained 2.90%, reflecting a moderate positive market reaction.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Market Context

Set against low reported short positioning and recent net insider share purchases totaling 5,974 sha...

Analysis

Set against low reported short positioning and recent net insider share purchases totaling 5,974 shares, this LNG market study underscores S&P Global’s Energy franchise; investors may watch whether such research visibility translates into sustained demand for its data and analytics offerings.

Key Figures

Annual jobs supported: 555,000 jobs GDP contribution: $1.4 trillion Feedgas demand: 36 bcf/d +5 more

8 metrics

Annual jobs supported 555,000 jobs U.S. LNG exports through 2040

GDP contribution $1.4 trillion U.S. LNG exports through 2040

Feedgas demand 36 bcf/d Projected U.S. LNG export feedgas in five years

LNG investment $1 trillion Estimated total LNG supply chain investment through 2040

Business revenues $2.9 trillion Total U.S. business revenues from LNG through 2040

Tax revenues $206 billion U.S. federal and state taxes from LNG through 2040

Labor income $630 billion Labor income generated by LNG exports through 2040

Household gas cost increase 1.6% Projected average rise in end user gas costs 2026–2031

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Jul 09 (Neutral)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	24h Move	Catalyst
Jul 09	Index composition change	Neutral	-0.6%	Solaris Energy Infrastructure set to join the S&P SmallCap 600 index.
Jul 06	Earnings call scheduling	Positive	+1.7%	Announcement of date and time for second quarter 2026 earnings release.
Jul 06	Pro forma financials	Positive	+1.7%	Publication of recast results excluding spun-off Mobility division and new segments.
Jul 06	Operating model change	Positive	+1.7%	Redesigned Market Intelligence structure and leadership to support AI-driven solutions.
Jul 02	Index additions	Neutral	+1.7%	Midera Food Processing and Centrus Energy set to join S&P SmallCap 600.

24h Move is the share-price change in the day after each event; other market factors may also have contributed.

Pattern Detected

Recent S&P Global corporate announcements have generally coincided with modestly positive share moves following the news.

Key Terms

liquefied natural gas, feedgas, henry hub, final investment decision

4 terms

liquefied natural gas technical

"Growing exports of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) are now on track"

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas that has been cooled into a liquid so it can be shipped and stored more easily—think of it like condensing a bulky gas into a compact, refrigerated form for transport. It matters to investors because LNG supply, shipping capacity, and long-term contracts influence energy prices, company revenues, and exposure to geopolitical or infrastructure risks, much like how a clogged highway can delay deliveries and raise costs.

feedgas technical

"U.S. feedgas demand for LNG exports will double to 36 billion cubic feet"

Feedgas is the natural gas or gas mixture that is introduced into an industrial unit—such as a reformer, petrochemical reactor, methanol or ammonia plant, or gas-processing facility—as the raw material or fuel for production. It matters to investors because the price, quality and availability of that input directly affect a plant’s operating costs, output levels and profit margins, much like the cost and quality of flour shape a bakery’s production and margins.

henry hub technical

"U.S. Henry Hub gas prices declined during the conflict."

Henry Hub is a physical natural gas pipeline junction in Louisiana that serves as the standard pricing point for U.S. natural gas contracts and the benchmark used in major futures markets. Think of it as the central marketplace where a single quoted price is set; that price acts like a reference tag that influences energy company revenues, utility costs, commodity trading and related stock valuations, so movements there can ripple through broader markets.

final investment decision financial

"with seven new projects taking final investment decision and several more expected"

A final investment decision is the point at which a person or organization chooses to move forward with a particular project or purchase after reviewing all the necessary information and options. It is like deciding to buy a house after considering all the costs, benefits, and alternatives. This decision is important because it determines whether and when the investment will be made, impacting future financial plans and outcomes.

AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

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Growth of U.S. LNG exports now expected to support 555,000 jobs annually and add $1.4 trillion to GDP through 2040 while domestic natural gas prices will remain among lowest in the world

WASHINGTON, July 16, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Growing exports of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) are now on track to support 550,000 jobs annually and contribute $1.4 trillion to U.S. gross domestic product through 2040—exceeding previous expectations—while having a negligible impact on domestic gas prices, according to a comprehensive new study by S&P Global Energy.

The new study projects that, under current conditions, U.S. feedgas demand for LNG exports will double to 36 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) in the next five years, 25% higher than previous base case projections. The United States, already the world's leading supplier of LNG, is expected to surpass a one-third share of the global market during this time, almost certainly making LNG exports the second largest net export industry in the United States, second only to U.S. civilian aircraft and parts.

The study, Price and Economic Impacts of an Accelerating Export Industry updates the findings of a December 2024 study to account for a surge in LNG investment that has occurred since the lifting of the U.S. LNG 'pause' in January 2025, with seven new projects taking final investment decision and several more expected in the next 6-12 months.

S&P Global Energy now estimates that total investment in the LNG supply chain will exceed $1 trillion through 2040. In addition to the increased jobs and GDP gains, the new study expects future LNG export activity to generate more than $2.9 trillion in total revenues for U.S. businesses, $206 billion in federal and state tax revenues and nearly $630 billion in labor income.

The economic impacts extend far beyond gas-producing states, with 42% of jobs and 33% of GDP contributions occurring in non-gas-producing areas.

"The profound growth of U.S. LNG is exceeding all expectations," said Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman, S&P Global and study chair. "What has become a $44 billion annual industry in just the last decade is now poised to be the country's second largest net export within five years.

"The economic gains in terms of jobs, GDP and labor income are on track to surpass all prior expectations, while the abundance of U.S. gas resources means that domestic prices remain among the lowest in the world. The economic benefits and low domestic prices, along with significant contributions to global energy security and the influence that comes from being the world's largest supplier add up to the benefit of the United States." 

Impact on Domestic Prices Negligible

Notably, the economic benefits occur while the impact on U.S. domestic natural gas prices is negligible. The study projects an average increase in end user gas costs of just 1.6% per household from 2026 to 2031. United States domestic natural gas prices will continue to rank among the lowest in the world for both residential and industrial sectors.

"More than 45 years of identified commercial gas resource in the United States at today's production levels and the world's most interconnected pipeline network are what enable both exports and low domestic prices," said Eric Eyberg, Vice President, Gas and LNG, S&P Global Energy. "Since 2010, domestic prices have trended downward even as demand for U.S. gas has grown 70 percent. The recent Iran conflict has proven the U.S. domestic gas market resilient to external shocks relative to global gas and other commodities. U.S. Henry Hub gas prices declined during the conflict."

Additionally, flexible U.S. LNG has turned export capacity into a domestic gas price shock absorber, the study says. During Winter Storm Fern, up to 9 bcf/d of feedgas was redirected for domestic consumption, providing critical supply for residential markets amid surging winter heating demand.

Major Implications for Global Gas Prices and Energy Security

The study also considered the implications of any curtailment of export volumes from U.S. LNG projects sanctioned post-U.S. LNG 'pause'.

Under an "Extended Pause" scenario where the new investment since 2025 in U.S. export capacity was not realized, global LNG markets would tighten significantly by 2031, pushing prices 50% higher for Europe and Asia and effectively transferring up to $76 billion per year to non-U.S. energy suppliers that would step in to fill demand, mostly with other fossil fuels, including coal, the study says.

As the United States is currently the number one supplier of LNG to Europe, the largest beneficiary of any curtailment of U.S. flows would be Russia, the study says. Due to current sanctions, Russia has up to 14 bcf/d of underutilized gas pipeline and LNG export infrastructure – connected with and proximate to Europe – that could quickly increase flows to meet regional needs.  

The Role of Infrastructure in Domestic Price Relief

The shale gas revolution and abundance of the U.S. natural gas resource base have shifted the domestic market dynamic to a new paradigm where infrastructure constraints are often the key driver of higher-priced regional markets and price volatility, the study says.

The United States has the world's most interconnected gas infrastructure network, with more than 300,000 miles of natural gas transmission pipelines. The annual volume of natural gas transported through the system exceeds the combined consumption of 130 countries. Nevertheless, key bottlenecks remain.

The study examines the potential impact of expanded pipeline capacity in the U.S. Northeast, where winter heating and growing winter power loads have led to highly seasonal demand and extreme price volatility.

New capacity additions could reduce peak winter month gas prices by more than 20% in key New England and New York markets during the 2028-2031 period, the study finds.

"The United States is in the enviable position where supply and demand are not a major issue," Eyberg said. "Since 2010, domestic gas production has been able to grow three times the amount of U.S. LNG exports. Infrastructure constraints and imbalances are what drive higher regional prices and volatility. The ability to build pipelines is the main challenge."

U.S. LNG Exports Today

• $44 billion in 2025 exports
• 2.3 times the value of U.S. corn exports
• 2.8 times the value of U.S. soybean exports
• Nearly triple the exports value of U.S. movie and TV related revenues
• 70% the value of U.S. semiconductor exports
• More than 80% of the total value of U.S. passenger cars exports.

U.S. LNG Exports – Base Case Economic Impacts Through 2040
(Change from December 2024 Projections)

• 555,000 annual jobs supported through 2040 (+55,000 jobs annually)
• $1.4 trillion contribution to U.S. gross domestic product (+$100 billion)
• $2.9 trillion total business revenues through 2040 (+$400 billion)
• $206 billion in U.S. federal and state taxes (+$40 billion)
• $630 billion in labor income (+$130 billion)
• Projected second largest U.S. net export industry by 2031

About the Study:

Price and Economic Impacts of an Accelerating Export Industry is available at: https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/price-and-economic-impacts-of-an-accelerating-export-industry-us-lng-impact-study-phase-4.html

This study offers an independent and objective assessment of the economic, market and global impact of the U.S. LNG Industry built from a detailed bottom-up approach, at the asset and market level, technology by technology. It is produced by S&P Global CERA Consulting and represents the collaboration of S&P Global Energy and S&P Global Market Intelligence, supported by the world's largest expert team of more than 1,400 energy and economic research analysts and consultants continuously monitoring, modelling and evaluating markets and assets. The analysis and metrics developed during the course of this research represent the independent analysis and views of S&P Global Energy. The study makes no policy recommendations. This research was supported by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

S&P Global Energy is exclusively responsible for all of the analysis, content and conclusions of the study.

About S&P Global Energy

At S&P Global Energy, our comprehensive view of global energy and commodities markets enables our customers to make superior decisions and create long-term, sustainable value. Our four core capabilities are: Platts for pricing and news; CERA for research and advisory; Horizons for energy expansion and sustainability solutions; and Events for industry collaboration.

S&P Global Energy is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global enables businesses, governments, and individuals with trusted data, expertise, and technology to make decisions with conviction. We are Advancing Essential Intelligence through world-leading benchmarks, data, and insights that customers need in order to plan confidently, act decisively, and thrive in a rapidly changing global landscape. Learn more at www.spglobal.com/energy.

Media Contacts:

Jeff Marn
S&P Global Energy
+1 202 463 8213
jeff.marn@spglobal.com

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SOURCE S&P Global Energy

FAQ

How much economic growth could U.S. LNG exports generate according to S&P Global (SPGI)?

According to S&P Global Energy, U.S. LNG exports are projected to add about $1.4 trillion to U.S. GDP through 2040. The study also expects $2.9 trillion in business revenues, $206 billion in federal and state taxes, and $630 billion in labor income over that period.

How many jobs are U.S. LNG exports expected to support in the S&P Global SPGI 2026 study?

The S&P Global Energy study projects U.S. LNG exports will support about 555,000 jobs annually through 2040. According to S&P Global Energy, 42% of these jobs and 33% of GDP contributions are expected to occur in non-gas-producing regions across the United States.

What impact will rising U.S. LNG exports have on domestic natural gas prices, according to S&P Global (SPGI)?

According to S&P Global Energy, the impact on U.S. natural gas prices is projected to be negligible, with household end-user costs rising only about 1.6% from 2026 to 2031. The study expects U.S. residential and industrial gas prices to remain among the world’s lowest.

When could LNG become the second-largest U.S. net export industry based on the S&P Global SPGI analysis?

The S&P Global Energy study indicates U.S. LNG exports are on track to become the country’s second-largest net export industry by 2031, behind civilian aircraft and parts. This projection reflects expected doubling of LNG feedgas demand to 36 bcf/d within five years.

How large is the U.S. LNG export industry today according to S&P Global (SPGI)?

According to S&P Global Energy, U.S. LNG exports totaled about $44 billion in 2025. The study notes this is 2.3 times the value of U.S. corn exports and nearly triple U.S. movie and TV-related export revenues, underscoring LNG’s growing role in U.S. trade.

What does the S&P Global SPGI study say about U.S. LNG’s effect on global gas prices and energy security?

The study concludes that curtailing post-2025 U.S. LNG projects would tighten global markets and raise European and Asian LNG prices by about 50% by 2031. According to S&P Global Energy, this could shift up to $76 billion per year to alternative suppliers, mainly other fossil fuels.

How much investment in the LNG supply chain is projected in the S&P Global (SPGI) report?

According to S&P Global Energy, total investment in the U.S. LNG supply chain is expected to exceed $1 trillion through 2040. This projection reflects new projects that reached final investment decision after the lifting of the U.S. LNG export pause in 2025.