S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX RECORDS 4.1% ANNUAL GAIN IN JANUARY 2025
Rhea-AI Summary
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index reported a 4.1% annual gain in January 2025, up slightly from 4% in December 2024. The analysis reveals a two-part story: strong appreciation of 4.8% in the first half of the year, followed by a 0.7% decline in the second half due to high mortgage rates and affordability constraints.
New York led the 20-City Composite with a 7.7% annual increase, followed by Chicago (7.5%) and Boston (6.6%). Tampa was the only market showing decline (-1.5%). The month-over-month data showed modest gains, with the seasonally adjusted National Index rising 0.6%.
Market challenges include elevated mortgage rates impacting monthly payment burdens, pushing affordability to multi-decade lows in many regions. Inventory constraints persist, particularly in legacy metro areas with new construction. Sunbelt markets that experienced previous sharp increases have shown the most significant slowdowns.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Positive
- National home prices increased 4.1% annually
- Most major cities (19 out of 20) showed positive annual price growth
- Seasonally adjusted monthly gains across all indices (National: +0.6%, 20-City: +0.5%)
- Strong performance in key markets: New York (+7.7%), Chicago (+7.5%), Boston (+6.6%)
Negative
- Second half 2024 showed price decline of 0.7%
- Tampa market declined 1.5% year-over-year
- San Francisco posted largest six-month decline of 3.4%
- Affordability at multi-decade lows in many regions
- Persistent inventory constraints limiting market activity
News Market Reaction – SPGI
On the day this news was published, SPGI declined 1.21%, reflecting a mild negative market reaction.
Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The pre-seasonally adjusted
After seasonal adjustment, the 20-City and 10-City Composite Indices posted month-over-month increases of
ANALYSIS
"Home price growth continued to moderate in January, reflecting a clear two-part story across the past year," says Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "The National Composite Index posted a
"Among the 20 metro areas tracked by the Composite 20,
"Rising mortgage rates throughout the year elevated monthly payment burdens, which, combined with already high home prices, pushed affordability to multi-decade lows in many regions. This likely contributed to subdued activity in the back half of the year, with both buyers and sellers exercising caution. Inventory constraints also remain a challenge, particularly in legacy metro areas, where limited new construction continues to restrict supply.
"The strength in markets like
"Despite near-term softness, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index remains historically elevated, and long-term homeowners have continued to build equity," Godec concluded. "The current cycle reinforces the value of real estate as a long-duration asset, but also highlights how sensitive home prices are to changes in financing conditions and buyer affordability."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | ||||||||
Index | Level | Date | Level | Date | From Peak (%) | Level | From Trough (%) | From Peak (%) | ||
National | 184.61 | Jul-06 | 133.99 | Feb-12 | -27.4 % | 323.54 | 141.5 % | 75.3 % | ||
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1 % | 332.56 | 148.0 % | 61.0 % | ||
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3 % | 351.13 | 139.8 % | 55.2 % | ||
Table 2 below summarizes the results for January 2025. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
January 2025 | January '25 /December '24 | December/November | 1-Year Change (%) | |||||||
Metropolitan Area | Level | Change (%) | Change (%) | |||||||
246.12 | -0.16 % | -0.54 % | 2.40 % | |||||||
339.62 | -0.28 % | 0.42 % | 6.55 % | |||||||
Charlotte | 279.40 | -0.23 % | -0.28 % | 3.32 % | ||||||
211.23 | 0.47 % | 0.19 % | 7.52 % | |||||||
192.87 | 0.24 % | -0.91 % | 6.45 % | |||||||
293.82 | -0.46 % | 0.00 % | 1.34 % | |||||||
314.60 | -0.12 % | 0.08 % | 1.87 % | |||||||
189.36 | 0.25 % | -0.54 % | 5.73 % | |||||||
300.49 | -0.01 % | 0.05 % | 5.49 % | |||||||
438.45 | 0.51 % | -0.15 % | 3.98 % | |||||||
442.95 | -0.08 % | 0.37 % | 3.32 % | |||||||
238.79 | -0.22 % | -0.57 % | 3.57 % | |||||||
318.15 | 0.09 % | -0.04 % | 7.75 % | |||||||
330.12 | 0.15 % | -0.07 % | 2.74 % | |||||||
327.55 | -0.32 % | -0.09 % | 2.83 % | |||||||
435.83 | 0.13 % | -0.03 % | 3.39 % | |||||||
351.09 | 0.07 % | -0.08 % | 3.00 % | |||||||
385.22 | -0.10 % | -0.33 % | 5.47 % | |||||||
375.52 | -0.59 % | -1.03 % | -1.51 % | |||||||
330.08 | 0.09 % | -0.32 % | 5.10 % | |||||||
Composite-10 | 351.13 | 0.16 % | -0.01 % | 5.31 % | ||||||
Composite-20 | 332.56 | 0.07 % | -0.11 % | 4.67 % | ||||||
323.54 | 0.06 % | -0.14 % | 4.08 % | |||||||
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic | ||||||||||
Data through January 2025 | ||||||||||
Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.
January ´25/December´24 Change (%) | December/November Change (%) | ||||||
Metropolitan Area | NSA | SA | NSA | SA | |||
-0.16 % | 0.28 % | -0.54 % | 0.14 % | ||||
-0.28 % | 0.27 % | 0.42 % | 1.25 % | ||||
Charlotte | -0.23 % | 0.36 % | -0.28 % | 0.43 % | |||
0.47 % | 1.04 % | 0.19 % | 1.13 % | ||||
0.24 % | 0.79 % | -0.91 % | 0.18 % | ||||
-0.46 % | 0.26 % | 0.00 % | 0.45 % | ||||
-0.12 % | 0.29 % | 0.08 % | 0.73 % | ||||
0.25 % | 0.99 % | -0.54 % | 0.38 % | ||||
-0.01 % | 0.64 % | 0.05 % | 0.70 % | ||||
0.51 % | 0.57 % | -0.15 % | 0.42 % | ||||
-0.08 % | 0.38 % | 0.37 % | 0.71 % | ||||
-0.22 % | 0.48 % | -0.57 % | 0.46 % | ||||
0.09 % | 0.43 % | -0.04 % | 0.34 % | ||||
0.15 % | 0.72 % | -0.07 % | 0.88 % | ||||
-0.32 % | 0.36 % | -0.09 % | 0.47 % | ||||
0.13 % | 0.11 % | -0.03 % | 0.57 % | ||||
0.07 % | 0.50 % | -0.08 % | 0.62 % | ||||
-0.10 % | 0.07 % | -0.33 % | 0.50 % | ||||
-0.59 % | -0.12 % | -1.03 % | -0.33 % | ||||
0.09 % | 0.63 % | -0.32 % | 0.04 % | ||||
Composite-10 | 0.2 % | 0.5 % | 0.0 % | 0.6 % | |||
Composite-20 | 0.1 % | 0.5 % | -0.1 % | 0.5 % | |||
0.1 % | 0.6 % | -0.1 % | 0.5 % | ||||
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic Data through January 2025 | |||||||
For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spglobal.com/spdji.
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S&P Dow Jones Indices' interactive blog, IndexologyBlog.com, delivers real-time commentary and analysis from industry experts across S&P Global on a wide range of topics impacting residential home prices, homebuilding and mortgage financing in
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
These indices are generated and published under agreements between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, Inc.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are produced by CoreLogic, Inc. In addition to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic.
Case-Shiller® and CoreLogic® are trademarks of CoreLogic Case-Shiller, LLC or its affiliates or subsidiaries ("CoreLogic") and have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices. None of the financial products based on indices produced by CoreLogic or its predecessors in interest are sponsored, sold, or promoted by CoreLogic, and neither CoreLogic nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, or predecessors in interest makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products.
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SOURCE S&P Dow Jones Indices