S&P Global Mobility: February 2025 US auto sales to improve mildly

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S&P Global Mobility forecasts a mild improvement in February 2025 US auto sales, projecting 1.23 million units with a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.1 million units, up from January's 15.6 million pace. Despite positive trends in pricing, inventory, and incentives, market growth faces challenges from uncertain economic conditions.

The outlook for 2025 predicts sustained but moderate growth, with annual light vehicle sales projected at 16.2 million units, representing approximately 1% growth from 2024. While vehicle prices are expected to decline and interest rates to decrease, inflation remains a concern. The battery-electric vehicle (BEV) segment is anticipated to maintain an 8.9% market share in February, matching January's performance, as stakeholders adapt to potential changes in BEV incentives.

Positive

• Auto sales SAAR increasing to 16.1M units from 15.6M in January
• Vehicle pricing levels expected to decline
• Interest rates projected to decrease
• New vehicle inventory expected to improve

Negative

• Only 1% growth projected for 2025 auto sales
• Inflation levels expected to remain high
• Uncertain consumer sentiment affecting demand
• Month-to-month volatility expected in BEV sales

S&P Global Mobility projects that February 2025 will realize a rebound from the slow January result, but new US vehicle sales face an unsettled environment.

SOUTHFIELD, Mich., Feb. 27, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- With volume for the month projected at 1.23 million units, February 2025 U.S. auto sales are estimated to translate to an estimated sales pace of 16.1 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR). This would be a step up from the 15.6 million unit pace of January 2025 and reflective of the volatile nature of the current auto demand environment.

"We expect that auto sales in February should recover mildly from the January 2025 result, but sustained momentum seems tough to come by, given the swirling economic and policy conditions facing auto consumers and automakers alike," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "While pricing, inventory and incentive trends are seemingly moving in the right direction, respectively, to promote new vehicle sales growth unsettled buying conditions will likely continue to push against any consistent upshift for demand levels."

The S&P Global Mobility US auto outlook for 2025 reflects sustained, but more moderate growth levels for light vehicle sales.  Vehicle pricing levels are expected to decline but remain high; interest rates are expected to shift further downwards, but inflation levels are anticipated to remain sticky. New vehicle inventory should also progress, but careful management is expected as well.  Combined with an uneasy consumer, we project this will translate to mild growth prospects for auto sales. S&P Global Mobility projects calendar-year 2025 light vehicle sales volume of 16.2 million units, growth of approximately 1% from the 2024 tally.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales
		Feb 25 (Est)	Jan 25	Feb 24
Total Light Vehicle	Units, NSA	1,230,900	1,110,721	1,228,996
	In millions, SAAR	16.1	15.6	15.7
Light Truck	In millions, SAAR	13.2	12.8	12.7
Passenger Car	In millions, SAAR	2.9	2.8	3.0
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility light vehicle sales forecast.  In the immediate term, some month-to-month volatility is anticipated. February BEV share is expected to reach 8.9%, similar to the January reading, as automakers, dealers and consumers continue to digest potential changes to BEV incentives as the new year is underway.

About S&P Global Mobility

At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.

S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.

Media Contact:

Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com

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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility

FAQ

What is the projected US auto sales volume for February 2025 according to S&P Global Mobility?

S&P Global Mobility projects February 2025 US auto sales at 1.23 million units, with a SAAR of 16.1 million units.

How much growth is expected in US light vehicle sales for full-year 2025?

S&P Global Mobility forecasts 1% growth in 2025, reaching 16.2 million units compared to 2024.

What is the expected BEV market share for February 2025?

Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) market share is expected to reach 8.9% in February 2025.

How does February 2025's projected SAAR compare to January 2025?

February's projected SAAR of 16.1 million units shows an improvement from January's 15.6 million unit pace.