CARFAX: Odometer Rollbacks See Dramatic Jump of 14% to 2.45 Million Vehicles

Rhea-AI Summary

CARFAX (SPGI) reports a sharp rise in suspected odometer rollbacks: roughly 2.45 million vehicles nationwide, a 14% increase year-over-year. CARFAX says average loss in resale value for affected vehicles is about $3,300. The company links higher digital odometer tampering to inexpensive tools and more frequent electronic mileage records that can reveal discrepancies.

States with the largest year-over-year increases include Montana +33%, Tennessee +30%, Arkansas +28%, Oklahoma +25%, Kansas +24%, New Jersey +21%, and Florida +20%. The release urges buyers to check vehicle history reports, VIN odometer checks, and get mechanic inspections.

Positive

• Suspected rollbacks +14% YoY to 2.45M vehicles
• Average value loss per affected vehicle ~$3,300

Negative

• Montana saw a 33% increase in suspected rollbacks
• Tennessee saw a 30% increase in suspected rollbacks
• Multiple states report >20% YoY increases in suspected rollbacks

Key Figures

Vehicles with rollback 2.45 million vehicles Cars on the road suspected of odometer rollback

YoY increase 14% Increase in suspected odometer rollbacks since last year

Prior YoY increase 4% Increase in suspected rollbacks from 2023 to 2024

Value loss per vehicle $3,300 Average value loss for vehicles with odometer rollback

Montana increase 33% Largest state-level increase in suspected rollbacks

Tennessee increase 30% State-level increase in suspected rollbacks

Arkansas increase 28% State-level increase in suspected rollbacks

Florida increase 20% State-level increase in suspected rollbacks

Market Reality Check

$539.65 Last Close

Volume Volume 1,604,166 is at a 1.06x multiple of the 20-day average 1,508,032. normal

Technical Price 499.63 is trading below the 200-day MA of 508.39, and about 13.72% under the 52-week high.

Peers on Argus

Peers show mixed but mostly negative moves: MCO -0.51%, ICE -1.25%, CME -0.29%, NDAQ -0.69%, while MSCI +0.36%. The modest -0.28% move in SPGI fits within this mixed sector backdrop.

Historical Context

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Dec 11	Industry awards	Positive	+0.7%	Platts Global Energy Awards recognizing leading companies across 21 categories.
Dec 10	Macro supply data	Negative	+0.1%	Index showing global spare capacity and weak manufacturing demand into 2026.
Dec 10	AI partnership	Positive	+0.1%	Multi-year Google Cloud partnership to accelerate AI and data distribution.
Dec 09	Energy outlook	Neutral	-0.3%	Clean Energy+ trends report detailing AI-driven power demand and capex needs.
Dec 04	Leadership changes	Positive	-0.6%	New executives appointed for Mobility division ahead of planned separation.

Pattern Detected

Recent news flow spans awards, macro supply chain data, AI partnerships, energy trend reports, and Mobility leadership changes, with mostly modest price reactions and a mix of aligned and divergent responses.

Recent Company History

Over the last few weeks, SPGI has issued diverse updates. On Dec 11, its Platts Global Energy Awards highlighted industry leadership, with a modest positive price move. Earlier in December, macro supply chain data and an AI-focused Google Cloud partnership saw small gains. Energy market trend insights on AI-driven power demand coincided with a slight decline, while leadership appointments tied to the planned Mobility separation on Dec 4 also saw a small pullback. Today’s odometer-fraud data update fits into this pattern of information-driven releases.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement highlights rising odometer fraud, with about 2.45 million vehicles suspected of rollbacks and an average value loss near $3,300 per affected car. It underscores the role of detailed vehicle-history data in protecting consumers and dealers. In the broader context, SPGI has recently reported stronger Q3 results, ongoing capital returns, and strategic actions such as planned Mobility separation and targeted acquisitions, all disclosed through recent SEC filings.

Key Terms

odometer rollback technical

"Odometer rollbacks occur when someone alters the mileage stored..."

Odometer rollback is the illegal practice of reducing the displayed mileage on a vehicle to make it appear less used than it really is. For investors and market participants, it signals potential fraud, hidden maintenance costs, warranty and liability exposures, and damaged resale values—similar to altering a clock to hide how long something has been used. Detecting or being tied to odometer rollback can cause regulatory penalties, lawsuits and sudden loss of asset value.

Vehicle Identification Number technical

"Check for potential odometer fraud by entering your Vehicle Identification Number..."

A vehicle identification number (VIN) is a unique 17-character code assigned to every motor vehicle that acts like a car’s fingerprint, encoding the maker, model, production details and serial number. Investors and lenders use VINs to verify a vehicle’s history, ownership, mileage and recall status—information that affects resale value, loan risk and insurance exposure much like a serial number helps check the history of any asset.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Alarming Spike In Odometer Fraud Since Last Year Costing Unsuspecting Buyers Thousands

CENTREVILLE, Va., Dec. 16, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Odometer fraud is a serious and growing concern for used car buyers across the country. New CARFAX data shows roughly 2.45 million cars on the road are suspected to have had their odometers rolled back, a sharp 14% increase from just last year. To put that into perspective, 2023 to 2024 saw a 4% increase year-over-year.

"Odometer rollbacks occur when someone alters the mileage stored in a vehicle's electronic systems to make it appear less driven," said Faisal Hasan, Vice President of Data Acquisition at CARFAX. "As modern vehicles have transitioned from mechanical to digital odometers, tampering has unfortunately become more common due to the wider availability of inexpensive tools. At the same time, a car's mileage is now recorded more often, which helps us identify discrepancies and better protect consumers."

This year, CARFAX data shows vehicles with an odometer rollback averaged a loss of around $3,300 in value. The unsuspecting driver is not only paying more for a vehicle with many more miles than expected, but may also incur additional costs for unexpected repairs and potential safety risks.

Top 10 states with the highest number of vehicles suspected of an odometer rollback:

States that saw the largest increase in vehicles suspected of an odometer rollback compared to last year include Montana at 33%, Tennessee at 30%, Arkansas at 28%, Oklahoma at 25%, Kansas at 24%, New Jersey at 21%, and Florida at 20%.

"I needed to buy a car, and I negotiated the price down to something I could afford," said Seven Beverly from Valencia, CA. "I later was curious about the car's history, so I checked the CARFAX and saw that there was a possible odometer rollback. It's definitely something that I wish I knew before buying."

How to protect from odometer fraud:

1. Do your research: Pull the CARFAX report for the vehicle's history and check the title, maintenance, and inspection records to compare the mileage on the vehicle.
2. Check for potential odometer fraud by entering your Vehicle Identification Number at www.carfax.com/odometer.
3. Check out the wear and tear on the gas, brake, or clutch pedals.
4. Always have a trusted mechanic inspect the car before a purchase. They should be able to tell if a vehicle looks older than its odometer suggests.

Editor's note: Localized data available upon request. Please contact Em Nguyen at emnguyen@carfax.com.

About CARFAX

CARFAX, part of S&P Global Mobility, helps millions of people every day confidently shop, buy, service and sell used cars with innovative solutions powered by CARFAX® vehicle history information. The expert in vehicle history since 1984, CARFAX provides CARFAX Used Car Listings, CARFAX Car Care, CARFAX History-Based Value and the flagship CARFAX Vehicle History Report to consumers and the automotive industry. CARFAX owns the world's largest vehicle history database and is nationally recognized as a top workplace by The Washington Post. Shop, Buy, Service, Sell – Show me the CARFAX®.

S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets.

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SOURCE CARFAX

FAQ

How many vehicles did CARFAX report with suspected odometer rollbacks in 2025 (SPGI)?

CARFAX reported about 2.45 million vehicles suspected of odometer rollback, a 14% increase year-over-year.

What is the average resale value loss per vehicle with a suspected rollback according to CARFAX (SPGI)?

CARFAX says affected vehicles averaged a loss of around $3,300 in value.

Which states had the largest increases in suspected odometer rollbacks per CARFAX (SPGI) data?

Top increases include Montana +33%, Tennessee +30%, Arkansas +28%, Oklahoma +25%, Kansas +24%, New Jersey +21%, and Florida +20%.

How can buyers check for odometer rollback using CARFAX (SPGI) tools?

Buyers can pull a CARFAX vehicle history report and use the VIN odometer check at carfax.com/odometer.

What practical steps does CARFAX (SPGI) recommend to avoid odometer fraud when buying used cars?

CARFAX advises checking title and maintenance records, inspecting pedal wear, and having a trusted mechanic perform a pre-purchase inspection.