SPARE CAPACITY PERSISTS GLOBALLY, WHILE NORTH AMERICA REPORTS A STEEPER PULLBACK IN MANUFACTURING DEMAND, SIGNALLING WEAK CONDITIONS HEADING INTO 2026: GEP GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY INDEX
Rhea-AI Summary
GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index (SPGI) shows global supply chains remained underutilized in November 2025, with the headline index at -0.29, signalling slack capacity heading into 2026.
Regionally, North America recorded the sharpest pullback (index -0.53), Europe stayed weak at -0.33, Asia eased to -0.16 while the UK improved to -0.20. Inventory and material shortage trackers remain low, transportation costs are near historical averages, and stockpiling activity is historically low. The report notes limited near-term purchasing cost pressures outside tariff effects and forecasts a buyers' market into 2026.
Positive
- Headline index at -0.29 indicating continued global spare capacity
- Asia index improved to -0.16 from -0.30, showing relative regional resilience
- U.K. index rose to -0.20, its best level in a year
Negative
- North America index fell to -0.53, weakest since March
- Europe index weakened to -0.33, reflecting fragile industrial demand
- Chinese factory purchasing continued to slow, dragging Asian demand
News Market Reaction
On the day this news was published, SPGI gained 0.12%, reflecting a mild positive market reaction.
Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.
Key Figures
Market Reality Check
Peers on Argus
Key peers MCO, ICE, CME, MSCI, and NDAQ all showed positive moves (from 0.62 to 1.95), suggesting generally supportive sentiment in financial data and exchanges while SPGI traded only modestly higher by 0.12 before this macro release.
Historical Context
| Date | Event | Sentiment | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 09 | Energy trends outlook | Positive | -0.3% | Energy report on AI-driven power demand and shifting global energy trends. |
| Dec 04 | Leadership changes | Positive | -0.6% | New senior leaders appointed for Mobility ahead of planned spin-off. |
| Dec 01 | Debt financing | Neutral | -0.8% | Pricing of <b>$1.0 billion</b> in senior notes due 2031 and 2035. |
| Dec 01 | Benchmark anniversary | Positive | -0.7% | Ten-year anniversary of Platts scrap and rebar benchmarks for LME futures. |
| Dec 01 | AI data partnership | Positive | -0.7% | Integration of S&P Global data into AWS environments for AI workflows. |
Recent SPGI news items, including AI/data initiatives, leadership moves, and financing, were followed by modestly negative next-day moves, indicating a tendency toward mild sell-offs even on seemingly constructive updates.
Over the last several weeks, SPGI reported multiple strategic and financial developments. These included a collaboration with AWS to embed S&P Global datasets into AI workflows, an energy outlook featuring AI-driven power demand and climate themes, and celebrations of long-standing Platts benchmarks. The company also priced and then completed a private $1.0 billion senior notes offering and announced leadership appointments as it prepares a Mobility separation. Each of these updates saw small negative price reactions (-0.28% to -0.82%) in the following session.
Market Pulse Summary
This announcement highlights continued slack in global supply chains, with a November 2025 headline index of -0.29 and particularly weak North American manufacturing demand at -0.53. For SPGI, which distributes this data, the release adds to its suite of macroeconomic indicators alongside recent AI, energy, and capital markets initiatives. Investors may focus on how persistent underutilization, regional divergences, and upcoming updates on Jan 13, 2026 intersect with SPGI’s broader growth, financing, and spin-off plans.
Jargon Translator
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
North America posts the steepest decline in input demand by region, signaling softening activity heading into 2026Europe and theUK remain subdued amid weak manufacturing pipelinesAsia sees another month of low demand as Chinese factory purchasing continues to slow- With ample spare capacity worldwide, companies face little price pressure outside of tariffs
The headline index came in at –0.29, signaling another month of slack capacity across global suppliers. The sharpest pullback occurred in
Across
With excess capacity firmly in place globally, the data suggest companies will face limited purchasing cost pressures in the months ahead, excluding tariff-related effects. Shortages remain minimal, stockpiling activity low, and manufacturing backlogs largely flat, highlighting a supply landscape still characterized by slack rather than strain.
"Companies are watching the
NOVEMBER 2025 REGIONAL KEY FINDINGS
ASIA : Index rose to -0.16, from -0.30, signaling less spare capacity than in October acrossAsia's supply chains. WhileChina remained a drag, ASEAN countries such asIndonesia andVietnam were resilient.NORTH AMERICA : Index fell to -0.53, from -0.45, indicating the highest degree of underutilized supplier capacity since March. The data point to a weakening near-term outlook for North American manufacturing.EUROPE : Index dips to -0.33, from -0.25, highlighting ongoing fragility acrossEurope's industrial economy.U.K. : Index rises sharply to -0.20, from -0.80, its highest level in a year, hinting at a stabilising of the country's manufacturing downturn
NOVEMBER 2025 KEY FINDINGS
- DEMAND: Global factories' purchases of commodities, intermediate goods and other components necessary for production slowed again in November. The slump reflected a pullback in factory buying across
China , demand-side manufacturing weakness in the US and a persistent drag from major European industrial economies such asGermany . - INVENTORIES: Reports from global procurement managers of an increase in stockpiling due to price or supply fears remain historically low, indicating limited concern about purchasing price inflation or shortages. The data continue to demonstrate a preference among manufacturers for lean warehouses.
- MATERIAL SHORTAGES: The global item shortages tracker remains well below its long-term trend level, signaling healthy supply levels for the world's manufacturers. Factories will have little, if any, challenges in sourcing vendors for commodities, components and other intermediate products.
- LABOR SHORTAGES: The labor shortages tracker remained only marginally above its long-term trend during November, indicating negligible pressures on production capacity due to a lack of workers.
- TRANSPORTATION: Global transportation costs ticked higher in November but recorded broadly in line with their historical average.
For more information, visit www.gep.com/volatility.
Note: Full historical data dating back to January 2005 is available for subscription. Please contact economics@spglobal.com.
The next release of the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index will be 8 a.m. ET, Jan. 13, 2026.
About the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is produced by S&P Global and GEP. It is derived from S&P Global's PMI® surveys, sent to companies in over 40 countries, totaling around 27,000 companies. The headline figure is a weighted sum of six sub-indices derived from PMI data, PMI Comments Trackers and PMI Commodity Price & Supply Indicators compiled by S&P Global.
- A value above 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being stretched and supply chain volatility is increasing. The further above 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being stretched.
- A value below 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being underutilized, reducing supply chain volatility. The further below 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being underutilized.
A Supply Chain Volatility Index is also published at a regional level for
About GEP
GEP® delivers AI-powered procurement and supply chain solutions that help global enterprises become more agile and resilient, operate more efficiently and effectively, gain competitive advantage, boost profitability and increase shareholder value. Fresh thinking, innovative products, unrivaled domain expertise, smart, passionate people — this is how GEP SOFTWARE™, GEP STRATEGY™ and GEP MANAGED SERVICES™ together deliver procurement and supply chain solutions of unprecedented scale, power and effectiveness. Our customers are the world's best companies, including more than 1,000 Fortune 500 and Global 2000 industry leaders who rely on GEP to meet ambitious strategic, financial and operational goals. A leader in multiple Gartner Magic Quadrants, GEP's cloud-native software and digital business platforms consistently win awards and recognition from industry analysts, research firms and media outlets, including Gartner, Forrester, IDC, ISG, and Spend Matters. GEP is also regularly ranked a top procurement and supply chain consulting and strategy firm, and a leading managed services provider by ALM, Everest Group, NelsonHall, IDC, ISG and HFS, among others. Headquartered in
About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) S&P Global provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world's leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world's leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today.
Media Contacts
Derek Creevey
Director, Public Relations
GEP
Phone: +1 646-276-4579
Email: derek.creevey@gep.com
Joe Hayes
Principal Economist
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Phone: +44-1344-328-099
Email: joe.hayes@spglobal.com
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FAQ
What did the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index report on Dec 10, 2025 for SPGI?
How did North America perform in the Nov 2025 GEP volatility index (SPGI)?
What do the Nov 2025 index readings mean for purchasing costs and shortages (SPGI)?
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