S&P Global Mobility: Solid finish to close out 2024 US auto sales

Rhea-AI Summary

S&P Global Mobility forecasts December 2024 U.S. auto sales to reach 1.45 million units, maintaining a 16.5 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The fourth quarter's selling rate average of 16.4 million units marks the highest quarterly average since Q2 2021. For 2025, sales volumes are projected to reach 16.18 million units, a modest 1.2% increase from 2024's estimated 16.0 million units.

The report highlights ongoing challenges including high vehicle pricing, though expected to decline, and sticky inflation despite anticipated lower interest rates. Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) share has consistently exceeded 8% since June, with December projections exceeding 9.0%, potentially driven by anticipated withdrawal of Federal EV incentives in 2025.

Positive

• Q4 2024 selling rate average of 16.4M units is highest since Q2 2021
• Projected 1.2% growth in auto sales for 2025
• BEV market share consistently above 8% since June 2024, expected to exceed 9% in December

Negative

• Vehicle affordability issues expected to persist in 2025
• Inflation levels anticipated to remain sticky despite lower interest rates
• Uncertain consumer environment limiting growth prospects

January – October sales were moderate, but December auto sales are expected to build on the relatively strong November result.

SOUTHFIELD, Mich., Dec. 19, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- December U.S. auto sales are estimated to hit 1.45 million units, translating to an estimated sales pace of 16.5 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), according to S&P Global Mobility. This would match the month prior reading and result in a fourth quarter selling rate average of 16.4 million units, a step up from the 15.6 million units averaged over the previous three quarters of the year, and the highest quarterly average for this metric since Q2 2021.  But it also points to likely volatility ahead as we move into 2025.

Looking forward, S&P Global Mobility projects US sales volumes to reach 16.18 million units in 2025, an estimated increase of 1.2% from the projected 2024 level of nearly 16.0 million units, as an uncertain environment remains for auto sales levels.

"2025 brings with it mixed opportunities and uncertainty for the auto industry as a new administration and policy proposals take hold," said Chris Hopson, manager of North American light vehicle sales forecasting for S&P Global Mobility. "Unfortunately, the new vehicle affordability issues that coalesced to constrain auto demand levels for much of 2024 will not be resolved quickly in 2025.  Vehicle pricing levels are expected to decline but remain high; interest rates are expected to shift further downwards, but inflation levels are anticipated to remain sticky, and new vehicle inventory should also progress, but careful management is expected too.  Combined with an uneasy consumer, we project this translates to mild growth prospects for auto sales."

US Light Vehicle Sales
		Dec 24 (Est)	Nov 24	Dec 23
Total Light Vehicle	Units, NSA	1,455,000	1,360,060	1,458,953
	In millions, SAAR	16.5	16.5	15.9
Light Truck	In millions, SAAR	13.3	13.5	12.8
Passenger Car	In millions, SAAR	3.2	3.0	3.1
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

According to S&P Global Mobility new registration data, BEV share of sales has been above 8% every month since June, reflecting progress from levels earlier in the year. BEV share in September reached a level of 8.6%, with October estimated to have remained above 8% again. Despite lower inventory levels for many EVs, November and December could realize BEV share advances in anticipation of Federal EV incentives being withdrawn in 2025. S&P Global Mobility projects December BEV share of more than 9.0%.

About S&P Global Mobility

At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.

S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.

Media Contact:

Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com

 

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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility

FAQ

What is S&P Global Mobility's forecast for US auto sales in December 2024?

S&P Global Mobility forecasts December 2024 U.S. auto sales to reach 1.45 million units, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.5 million units.

What is the projected US auto sales growth for 2025?

S&P Global Mobility projects US auto sales to reach 16.18 million units in 2025, representing a 1.2% increase from 2024's estimated 16.0 million units.

What is the current BEV market share trend in the US auto market?

BEV market share has been consistently above 8% since June 2024, with December 2024 projections exceeding 9.0%, driven partly by anticipated withdrawal of Federal EV incentives in 2025.

What challenges does S&P Global Mobility forecast for the US auto market in 2025?

Key challenges include persistent vehicle affordability issues, sticky inflation despite lower interest rates, and careful inventory management needs amid an uncertain consumer environment.