S&P Global Mobility: U.S. auto sales expected to post modest gains in July

Rhea-AI Summary

S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) forecasts U.S. auto sales to show modest gains in July 2025, with an expected volume of 1.33 million units, representing a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.9 million units. This marks an improvement from the May-June average of 15.5 million units.

The anticipated sales increase is primarily driven by a surge in battery electric vehicle (BEV) purchases ahead of federal EV incentives expiring on September 30th. BEV market share is projected to exceed 9% in July, up from the 7.3% year-to-date average through May 2025. However, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and the upcoming expiration of federal incentives could create headwinds for long-term BEV growth.

[ "Expected increase in July auto sales to 15.9 million SAAR from 15.5 million May-June average", "BEV market share projected to reach over 9%, up from 7.3% YTD average", "Pull-ahead demand for EVs expected to boost overall vehicle sales through Q3" ]

Positive

• None.

Negative

• Persistent affordability concerns in the auto market
• Expected significant decline in BEV sales after federal EV incentives expire in September
• Increasing uncertainty in long-term BEV demand growth due to OBBBA policy implications

Insights

Automotive Industry Analyst

S&P Global forecasts mild July auto sales growth driven by BEV purchases ahead of federal incentive expiration, signaling short-term industry boost.

S&P Global Mobility projects a modest improvement in July's auto sales with 1.33 million light vehicles sold, translating to a 15.9% seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This represents an uptick from the 15.5% average pace seen in May-June.

The data reveals an interesting dynamic: we're witnessing the beginning of a second wave of pull-ahead demand in 2025, this time specifically in battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Consumers are accelerating purchases ahead of the September 30th federal EV incentive expiration - a critical deadline driving current market behavior.

The projected BEV share for July of over 9% significantly exceeds the year-to-date average of 7.3% through May. This short-term boost masks longer-term concerns, as post-incentive BEV demand will likely face substantial headwinds in Q4 2025.

The sales breakdown shows light trucks continuing to dominate the market at 13.1 million SAAR versus just 2.8 million for passenger cars. This truck-heavy mix persists despite growing EV interest.

A particularly noteworthy aspect is the mention of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and its potential to further disrupt BEV adoption patterns. This suggests significant regulatory uncertainty affecting long-term EV market projections, with market share volatility expected to intensify in coming months.

These projections from S&P Global Mobility provide valuable forward-looking indicators for the auto industry while highlighting the artificial market distortions created by policy deadlines rather than organic demand growth.

New light vehicle sales in July are expected to be up slightly, supported by the next pull-ahead wave, this time for electric vehicles

SOUTHFIELD, Mich., Aug. 1, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Global Mobility projects new light vehicle sales volume in July 2025 will reach 1.33 million units. This would translate to an estimated sales pace of 15.9 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), up mildly from the 15.5 million-unit pace averaged from May-June. 

"Overall, auto demand in July is expected to remain modest, as affordability concerns remain entrenched.  The pace of sales is expected to improve compared to the previous two months as the market digests the likely beginning of a second wave of pull-ahead demand in 2025. This time sales will be buoyed by a run up in battery electric vehicle (BEV) in advance of the September 30^th expiration of federal EV incentives," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "While the expiration of federal EV incentives will create longer-term headwinds for BEV growth, price-conscious consumers looking to take advantage of the savings are likely to do so before the end of the third quarter, helping to push overall new vehicle volumes, although to a lesser degree than realized back in March and April."

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales
		July 25 (Est)	Jun 25	July 24
Total Light Vehicle	Units, NSA	1,325,200	1,254,418	1,285,711
	In millions, SAAR	15.9	15.3	15.8
Light Truck	In millions, SAAR	13.1	12.8	12.9
Passenger Car	In millions, SAAR	2.8	2.5	2.9
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Continued development of battery-electric vehicle sales remains increasingly uncertain. The auto policy implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) could further temper long-term BEV demand growth. In the immediate term, even more month-to-month BEV sales and market share volatility is anticipated, as EV share mix from July-September is expected to advance, followed by much lower take rates in the fourth quarter of 2025.  BEV share of sales in July is expected to reach over 9% (compared to the year-to-date average of 7.3% through May 2025)

About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.

S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.

Media Contact:
mobilitycomms@spglobal.com

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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility

FAQ

What is S&P Global's forecast for US auto sales in July 2025?

S&P Global projects 1.33 million units in new light vehicle sales for July 2025, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.9 million units.

How will the expiration of federal EV incentives affect BEV sales in 2025?

BEV sales are expected to increase through Q3 2025 due to pull-ahead demand, followed by significantly lower take rates in Q4 after the September 30th expiration of federal EV incentives.

What is the projected BEV market share for July 2025?

BEV market share is expected to exceed 9% in July 2025, an increase from the year-to-date average of 7.3% through May 2025.

What are the main challenges facing US auto sales according to S&P Global?

The main challenges include persistent affordability concerns, uncertainty in BEV demand growth due to OBBBA policy implications, and expected headwinds following the expiration of federal EV incentives.

How does the July 2025 auto sales forecast compare to previous months?

The July 2025 forecast of 15.9 million SAAR shows an improvement from the 15.5 million-unit pace averaged during May-June and is slightly higher than the June 2025 rate of 15.3 million units.