S&P Global Mobility: U.S. auto sales expected to post modest gains in July
S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) forecasts U.S. auto sales to show modest gains in July 2025, with an expected volume of 1.33 million units, representing a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.9 million units. This marks an improvement from the May-June average of 15.5 million units.
The anticipated sales increase is primarily driven by a surge in battery electric vehicle (BEV) purchases ahead of federal EV incentives expiring on September 30th. BEV market share is projected to exceed 9% in July, up from the 7.3% year-to-date average through May 2025. However, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and the upcoming expiration of federal incentives could create headwinds for long-term BEV growth.
[ "Expected increase in July auto sales to 15.9 million SAAR from 15.5 million May-June average", "BEV market share projected to reach over 9%, up from 7.3% YTD average", "Pull-ahead demand for EVs expected to boost overall vehicle sales through Q3" ]S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) prevede un modesto aumento delle vendite di auto negli Stati Uniti a luglio 2025, con un volume stimato di 1,33 milioni di unità, corrispondente a un tasso annuo destagionalizzato (SAAR) di 15,9 milioni di unità. Questo rappresenta un miglioramento rispetto alla media di 15,5 milioni di unità registrata tra maggio e giugno.
L'incremento previsto nelle vendite è principalmente dovuto a un'impennata negli acquisti di veicoli elettrici a batteria (BEV) in vista della scadenza degli incentivi federali per i veicoli elettrici, fissata al 30 settembre. La quota di mercato dei BEV dovrebbe superare il 9% a luglio, in crescita rispetto alla media del 7,3% registrata dall'inizio dell'anno fino a maggio 2025. Tuttavia, l'One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) e la prossima scadenza degli incentivi federali potrebbero rappresentare ostacoli per la crescita a lungo termine dei BEV.
- Aumento previsto delle vendite di auto a luglio a 15,9 milioni SAAR rispetto alla media di 15,5 milioni tra maggio e giugno
- Quota di mercato dei BEV prevista oltre il 9%, in aumento rispetto alla media del 7,3% da inizio anno
- Domanda anticipata di veicoli elettrici che dovrebbe sostenere le vendite complessive di veicoli fino al terzo trimestre
S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) pronostica un modesto aumento en las ventas de autos en Estados Unidos para julio de 2025, con un volumen esperado de 1.33 millones de unidades, lo que representa una tasa anual ajustada estacionalmente (SAAR) de 15.9 millones de unidades. Esto marca una mejora respecto al promedio de 15.5 millones de unidades registrado entre mayo y junio.
El aumento anticipado en las ventas se debe principalmente a un repunte en las compras de vehículos eléctricos a batería (BEV) antes de que expiren los incentivos federales para vehículos eléctricos el 30 de septiembre. Se proyecta que la cuota de mercado de BEV supere el 9% en julio, frente al promedio del 7.3% acumulado hasta mayo de 2025. Sin embargo, la Ley One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) y la próxima expiración de los incentivos federales podrían generar obstáculos para el crecimiento a largo plazo de los BEV.
- Aumento esperado en las ventas de autos en julio a 15.9 millones SAAR desde un promedio de 15.5 millones en mayo-junio
- Cuota de mercado de BEV proyectada para superar el 9%, aumentando desde un promedio acumulado del 7.3%
- La demanda anticipada de vehículos eléctricos se espera que impulse las ventas totales de vehículos hasta el tercer trimestre
S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI)는 2025년 7월 미국 자동차 판매가 소폭 증가하여 133만 대에 달할 것으로 예상하며, 이는 계절 조정 연율(SAAR) 기준 1590만 대에 해당합니다. 이는 5월~6월 평균 1550만 대에서 개선된 수치입니다.
예상되는 판매 증가는 9월 30일 연방 전기차(EV) 인센티브 만료를 앞두고 배터리 전기차(BEV) 구매 급증에 주로 기인합니다. BEV 시장 점유율은 2025년 7월에 9% 이상으로, 5월까지 연초 누적 평균 7.3%에서 상승할 것으로 예상됩니다. 그러나 One Big Beautiful Bill Act(OBBBA)와 연방 인센티브 만료는 BEV의 장기 성장에 장애물이 될 수 있습니다.
- 7월 자동차 판매가 5~6월 평균 1550만 대에서 1590만 대 SAAR로 증가할 것으로 예상
- BEV 시장 점유율이 연초 누적 평균 7.3%에서 9% 이상으로 상승할 전망
- EV 선구매 수요가 3분기까지 전체 차량 판매를 견인할 것으로 예상
S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) prévoit une légère augmentation des ventes automobiles aux États-Unis en juillet 2025, avec un volume attendu de 1,33 million d'unités, représentant un taux annuel ajusté des variations saisonnières (SAAR) de 15,9 millions d'unités. Cela marque une amélioration par rapport à la moyenne de 15,5 millions d'unités enregistrée entre mai et juin.
Cette hausse anticipée des ventes est principalement due à une forte augmentation des achats de véhicules électriques à batterie (BEV) avant l'expiration des incitations fédérales pour les véhicules électriques prévue le 30 septembre. La part de marché des BEV devrait dépasser 9% en juillet, contre une moyenne de 7,3% depuis le début de l'année jusqu'en mai 2025. Toutefois, la loi One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) et la prochaine expiration des incitations fédérales pourraient freiner la croissance à long terme des BEV.
- Augmentation prévue des ventes automobiles en juillet à 15,9 millions SAAR contre une moyenne de 15,5 millions en mai-juin
- Part de marché des BEV projetée à plus de 9%, contre une moyenne cumulée de 7,3%
- La demande anticipée de véhicules électriques devrait stimuler les ventes globales de véhicules jusqu'au troisième trimestre
S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) prognostiziert für Juli 2025 einen moderaten Anstieg der US-Autoverkäufe auf ein erwartetes Volumen von 1,33 Millionen Einheiten, was einer saisonal bereinigten Jahresrate (SAAR) von 15,9 Millionen Einheiten entspricht. Dies stellt eine Verbesserung gegenüber dem Durchschnitt von 15,5 Millionen Einheiten im Mai-Juni dar.
Der erwartete Verkaufsanstieg wird hauptsächlich durch einen Anstieg der Käufe von Batterie-Elektrofahrzeugen (BEV) getrieben, da die bundesstaatlichen EV-Anreize am 30. September auslaufen. Der BEV-Marktanteil wird voraussichtlich im Juli über 9% liegen, verglichen mit dem bisher im Jahr 2025 bis Mai erreichten Durchschnitt von 7,3%. Allerdings könnten das One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) und das bevorstehende Auslaufen der Bundesanreize langfristige Wachstumshemmnisse für BEV darstellen.
- Erwarteter Anstieg der Autoverkäufe im Juli auf 15,9 Millionen SAAR gegenüber 15,5 Millionen im Mai-Juni-Durchschnitt
- BEV-Marktanteil wird voraussichtlich über 9% steigen, gegenüber 7,3% im bisherigen Jahresdurchschnitt
- Vorgezogene Nachfrage nach E-Fahrzeugen wird voraussichtlich die Gesamtfahrzeugverkäufe bis zum dritten Quartal ankurbeln
- None.
- Persistent affordability concerns in the auto market
- Expected significant decline in BEV sales after federal EV incentives expire in September
- Increasing uncertainty in long-term BEV demand growth due to OBBBA policy implications
Insights
S&P Global forecasts mild July auto sales growth driven by BEV purchases ahead of federal incentive expiration, signaling short-term industry boost.
S&P Global Mobility projects a modest improvement in July's auto sales with 1.33 million light vehicles sold, translating to a
The data reveals an interesting dynamic: we're witnessing the beginning of a second wave of pull-ahead demand in 2025, this time specifically in battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Consumers are accelerating purchases ahead of the September 30th federal EV incentive expiration - a critical deadline driving current market behavior.
The projected BEV share for July of over
The sales breakdown shows light trucks continuing to dominate the market at 13.1 million SAAR versus just 2.8 million for passenger cars. This truck-heavy mix persists despite growing EV interest.
A particularly noteworthy aspect is the mention of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and its potential to further disrupt BEV adoption patterns. This suggests significant regulatory uncertainty affecting long-term EV market projections, with market share volatility expected to intensify in coming months.
These projections from S&P Global Mobility provide valuable forward-looking indicators for the auto industry while highlighting the artificial market distortions created by policy deadlines rather than organic demand growth.
New light vehicle sales in July are expected to be up slightly, supported by the next pull-ahead wave, this time for electric vehicles
"Overall, auto demand in July is expected to remain modest, as affordability concerns remain entrenched. The pace of sales is expected to improve compared to the previous two months as the market digests the likely beginning of a second wave of pull-ahead demand in 2025. This time sales will be buoyed by a run up in battery electric vehicle (BEV) in advance of the September 30th expiration of federal EV incentives," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "While the expiration of federal EV incentives will create longer-term headwinds for BEV growth, price-conscious consumers looking to take advantage of the savings are likely to do so before the end of the third quarter, helping to push overall new vehicle volumes, although to a lesser degree than realized back in March and April."
July 25 (Est) | Jun 25 | July 24 | ||
Total Light Vehicle | Units, NSA | 1,325,200 | 1,254,418 | 1,285,711 |
In millions, SAAR | 15.9 | 15.3 | 15.8 | |
Light Truck | In millions, SAAR | 13.1 | 12.8 | 12.9 |
Passenger Car | In millions, SAAR | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.9 |
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), | ||||
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle sales remains increasingly uncertain. The auto policy implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) could further temper long-term BEV demand growth. In the immediate term, even more month-to-month BEV sales and market share volatility is anticipated, as EV share mix from July-September is expected to advance, followed by much lower take rates in the fourth quarter of 2025. BEV share of sales in July is expected to reach over
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility
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