S&P Global Mobility: U.S. auto sales expected to post modest gains in July
Rhea-AI Summary
S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) forecasts U.S. auto sales to show modest gains in July 2025, with an expected volume of 1.33 million units, representing a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.9 million units. This marks an improvement from the May-June average of 15.5 million units.
The anticipated sales increase is primarily driven by a surge in battery electric vehicle (BEV) purchases ahead of federal EV incentives expiring on September 30th. BEV market share is projected to exceed 9% in July, up from the 7.3% year-to-date average through May 2025. However, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and the upcoming expiration of federal incentives could create headwinds for long-term BEV growth.
[ "Expected increase in July auto sales to 15.9 million SAAR from 15.5 million May-June average", "BEV market share projected to reach over 9%, up from 7.3% YTD average", "Pull-ahead demand for EVs expected to boost overall vehicle sales through Q3" ]Positive
- None.
Negative
- Persistent affordability concerns in the auto market
- Expected significant decline in BEV sales after federal EV incentives expire in September
- Increasing uncertainty in long-term BEV demand growth due to OBBBA policy implications
News Market Reaction – SPGI
In the Aug 1 session, SPGI declined 0.99%, reflecting a mild negative market reaction.
Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.
AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.
New light vehicle sales in July are expected to be up slightly, supported by the next pull-ahead wave, this time for electric vehicles
"Overall, auto demand in July is expected to remain modest, as affordability concerns remain entrenched. The pace of sales is expected to improve compared to the previous two months as the market digests the likely beginning of a second wave of pull-ahead demand in 2025. This time sales will be buoyed by a run up in battery electric vehicle (BEV) in advance of the September 30th expiration of federal EV incentives," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "While the expiration of federal EV incentives will create longer-term headwinds for BEV growth, price-conscious consumers looking to take advantage of the savings are likely to do so before the end of the third quarter, helping to push overall new vehicle volumes, although to a lesser degree than realized back in March and April."
July 25 (Est) | Jun 25 | July 24 | ||
Total Light Vehicle | Units, NSA | 1,325,200 | 1,254,418 | 1,285,711 |
In millions, SAAR | 15.9 | 15.3 | 15.8 | |
Light Truck | In millions, SAAR | 13.1 | 12.8 | 12.9 |
Passenger Car | In millions, SAAR | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.9 |
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), | ||||
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle sales remains increasingly uncertain. The auto policy implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) could further temper long-term BEV demand growth. In the immediate term, even more month-to-month BEV sales and market share volatility is anticipated, as EV share mix from July-September is expected to advance, followed by much lower take rates in the fourth quarter of 2025. BEV share of sales in July is expected to reach over
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
mobilitycomms@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility