TARIFFS BITE: NORTH AMERICAN AND ASIAN MANUFACTURERS RETRENCH IN APRIL, WITH GLOBAL MATERIAL PURCHASES DOWN AT ACCELERATED PACE: GEP GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY INDEX
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index reveals a significant downturn in global manufacturing activity for April 2025, with manufacturers reducing input purchases at the fastest rate this year. North American manufacturers are actively stockpiling and reducing purchases in response to tariff concerns, while Asian manufacturing hubs recorded their weakest purchasing activity since December 2023. The impact is particularly evident in China, Taiwan, and South Korea.
In contrast, Europe shows signs of recovery from its industrial recession, with improved activity in Germany and France. However, the UK continues to struggle, showing the worst manufacturing weakness in nearly 20 years. The index, based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses, suggests a likely production slowdown in the near future due to tariff impacts.
L'Indice di Volatilità della Catena di Fornitura Globale GEP evidenzia un significativo calo dell'attività manifatturiera globale ad aprile 2025, con i produttori che riducono gli acquisti di materie prime al ritmo più rapido dell'anno. I produttori nordamericani stanno accumulando scorte e riducendo gli acquisti in risposta alle preoccupazioni sui dazi, mentre i centri manifatturieri asiatici hanno registrato la più debole attività di acquisto da dicembre 2023. L'impatto è particolarmente evidente in Cina, Taiwan e Corea del Sud.
Al contrario, l'Europa mostra segnali di ripresa dalla sua recessione industriale, con un miglioramento dell'attività in Germania e Francia. Tuttavia, il Regno Unito continua a faticare, mostrando la più grave debolezza manifatturiera degli ultimi quasi 20 anni. L'indice, basato su un sondaggio mensile di 27.000 aziende, suggerisce un probabile rallentamento della produzione nel prossimo futuro a causa degli effetti dei dazi.
El Índice de Volatilidad de la Cadena de Suministro Global GEP revela una caída significativa en la actividad manufacturera global en abril de 2025, con los fabricantes reduciendo las compras de insumos al ritmo más rápido del año. Los fabricantes norteamericanos están acumulando inventarios y reduciendo compras en respuesta a preocupaciones sobre aranceles, mientras que los centros manufactureros asiáticos registraron su actividad de compra más débil desde diciembre de 2023. El impacto es especialmente evidente en China, Taiwán y Corea del Sur.
En contraste, Europa muestra señales de recuperación de su recesión industrial, con una mejor actividad en Alemania y Francia. Sin embargo, el Reino Unido sigue enfrentando dificultades, mostrando la mayor debilidad manufacturera en casi 20 años. El índice, basado en una encuesta mensual a 27,000 empresas, sugiere una probable desaceleración de la producción en el futuro cercano debido a los impactos de los aranceles.
GEP 글로벌 공급망 변동성 지수는 2025년 4월 전 세계 제조 활동이 크게 둔화되었음을 보여주며, 제조업체들이 올해 가장 빠른 속도로 원자재 구매를 줄이고 있습니다. 북미 제조업체들은 관세 우려에 대응하여 재고를 쌓고 구매를 줄이고 있으며, 아시아 제조 허브는 2023년 12월 이후 가장 약한 구매 활동을 기록했습니다. 특히 중국, 대만, 한국에서 그 영향이 두드러집니다.
반면에, 유럽은 산업 불황에서 회복 조짐을 보이며 독일과 프랑스에서 활동이 개선되고 있습니다. 그러나 영국은 거의 20년 만에 가장 심각한 제조업 약세를 보이며 어려움을 겪고 있습니다. 27,000개 기업을 대상으로 한 월간 설문조사를 기반으로 한 이 지수는 관세 영향으로 인해 가까운 미래에 생산 둔화가 예상됨을 시사합니다.
L'Indice de Volatilité de la Chaîne d'Approvisionnement Globale GEP révèle un net ralentissement de l'activité manufacturière mondiale en avril 2025, les fabricants réduisant leurs achats d'intrants au rythme le plus rapide de l'année. Les fabricants nord-américains accumulent activement des stocks et réduisent leurs achats en réponse aux inquiétudes liées aux tarifs douaniers, tandis que les centres manufacturiers asiatiques enregistrent leur activité d'achat la plus faible depuis décembre 2023. L'impact est particulièrement marqué en Chine, à Taïwan et en Corée du Sud.
En revanche, l'Europe montre des signes de reprise après sa récession industrielle, avec une amélioration de l'activité en Allemagne et en France. Toutefois, le Royaume-Uni continue de peiner, affichant la plus grande faiblesse manufacturière depuis près de 20 ans. L'indice, basé sur une enquête mensuelle auprès de 27 000 entreprises, suggère un probable ralentissement de la production dans un avenir proche en raison des effets des tarifs douaniers.
Der GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index zeigt im April 2025 einen deutlichen Rückgang der globalen Fertigungsaktivität, wobei Hersteller ihre Einkaufsmengen so schnell wie in diesem Jahr noch nicht reduziert haben. Nordamerikanische Hersteller horten aktiv Vorräte und reduzieren Einkäufe aufgrund von Zollbedenken, während asiatische Fertigungszentren die schwächste Einkaufsaktivität seit Dezember 2023 verzeichneten. Besonders betroffen sind China, Taiwan und Südkorea.
Im Gegensatz dazu zeigt Europa Anzeichen einer Erholung von der Industrie-Rezession, mit verbesserter Aktivität in Deutschland und Frankreich. Der Vereinigte Königreich kämpft jedoch weiterhin und weist die schwächste Fertigungsleistung seit fast 20 Jahren auf. Der Index, basierend auf einer monatlichen Umfrage unter 27.000 Unternehmen, deutet aufgrund der Zollauswirkungen auf eine wahrscheinliche Produktionsverlangsamung in naher Zukunft hin.
- European industrial downturn showing signs of recovery, particularly in Germany and France
- Supply chain capacity utilization in Europe at highest level in 10 months
- Sharpest drop in global manufacturers' input purchases in 2025
- North American manufacturers reducing purchases and increasing stockpiling due to tariff concerns
- Asian manufacturing activity at its weakest since December 2023
- UK manufacturing showing worst performance in nearly 20 years
- Signs of anticipated slower demand and supply shortages emerging globally
Insights
Tariffs are significantly disrupting global manufacturing, causing North American stockpiling and Asian contraction, while Europe shows recovery signs.
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index reveals a concerning acceleration in global manufacturing contraction, with April showing the sharpest reduction in input purchasing of 2025. This represents a significant negative shift in manufacturing activity driven directly by tariff impacts.
North American manufacturers are implementing a two-pronged defensive strategy: reducing new purchases while simultaneously building safety stock buffers from earlier Q1 purchases. This stockpiling behavior is a classic response to trade uncertainty, as companies front-load inventory ahead of expected price increases and potential supply disruptions.
Particularly troubling is the situation across Asian manufacturing hubs, where spare capacity has risen significantly—indicating factories are operating well below optimal levels. China, Taiwan, and South Korea are experiencing notable slowdowns, which will likely ripple through global supply chains given their critical role in component manufacturing.
The only bright spot appears in Europe, where data suggests the region's prolonged industrial recession may finally be abating. Germany and France are showing growth signals, though the UK continues to display significant manufacturing weakness. However, European gains could quickly reverse if global trade conditions deteriorate further.
This data strongly suggests we're seeing just the beginning impacts of tariff implementation. The combination of reduced purchasing activity and aggressive inventory building indicates manufacturers are preparing for a difficult period ahead with expected demand contractions and potential supply disruptions. The sharp reduction in April—described as the steepest of 2025—points to a manufacturing sector rapidly adjusting to new trade realities.
- The steep fall in global manufacturers' purchases signals a likely production slowdown in the near future
North America factories respond to tariffs by buying less inputs and aggressively stockpiling- Purchasing activity by Asian manufacturers at its weakest since Dec. 2023 as demand slumps across the region's key exporting hubs
- Bright spot:
Europe's industrial recession is finally coming to an end as spare capacity shrinks further
April's drop in buying across global manufacturers was the sharpest of 2025 to date—specifically in
"The first blows of the tariff war have landed on global manufacturers. Stockpiling is accelerating at a concerning rate and the first signs of manufacturers anticipating slower demand and supply shortages have emerged." said John Piatek, vice president, consulting GEP.
REGIONAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY:
NORTH AMERICAN MANUFACTURERS RAISE SAFETY STOCK TO BLUNT TARIFFS NEAR-TERM IMPACT
North American manufacturers sharply increased inventory buffers in April, warehousing front-loaded Q1 purchases in response to rising tariff concerns and a renewed focus on supply chain resilience.
SPARE CAPACITY RISES ACROSS
Spare capacity across Asian supply chains increased significantly in April as factory slowdowns were evident in many of the region's major markets, led by
In
The
Interpreting the data:
Index > 0, supply chain capacity is being stretched. The further above 0, the more stretched supply chains are.
Index < 0, supply chain capacity is being underutilized. The further below 0, the more underutilized supply chains are.
For more information, visit www.gep.com/volatility.
Note: Full historical data dating back to January 2005 is available for subscription. Please contact economics@spglobal.com.
The next release of the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index will be 8 a.m. ET, Jun. 11, 2025.
About the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is produced by S&P Global and GEP. It is derived from S&P Global's PMI® surveys, sent to companies in over 40 countries, totaling around 27,000 companies. The headline figure is a weighted sum of six sub-indices derived from PMI data, PMI Comments Trackers and PMI Commodity Price & Supply Indicators compiled by S&P Global.
- A value above 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being stretched and supply chain volatility is increasing. The further above 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being stretched.
- A value below 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being underutilized, reducing supply chain volatility. The further below 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being underutilized.
A Supply Chain Volatility Index is also published at a regional level for
About GEP
GEP® delivers AI-powered procurement and supply chain solutions that help global enterprises become more agile and resilient, operate more efficiently and effectively, gain competitive advantage, boost profitability and increase shareholder value. Headquartered in
About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) S&P Global provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction.
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