TransUnion Analysis Finds Rise in Consumer Payment-to-Income Ratios is a Clear Indicator for Potential Mortgage Delinquency Increases
TransUnion (NYSE:TRU) has released a comprehensive analysis revealing a significant correlation between rising payment-to-income (PTI) ratios and mortgage delinquency rates. The study shows mortgage delinquencies have increased from 0.89% in Q2 2023 to 1.27% in Q2 2025.
The analysis, examining nearly 57 million mortgage consumers, demonstrates that increases in non-mortgage debt obligations, particularly in credit cards, HELOCs, and student loans, serve as early warning signs for potential mortgage defaults. Credit card PTI ratios rose from 2.18% to 2.33% throughout 2023, correlating with increased mortgage delinquency rates in the following year.
TransUnion recommends quarterly monitoring of consumer credit data to identify emerging risks before they manifest in traditional credit scores.
TransUnion (NYSE:TRU) ha pubblicato un'analisi approfondita che individua una forte correlazione tra l'aumento dei rapporti pagamento/reddito (PTI) e le percentuali di morosità sui mutui. Lo studio rileva che le morosità sui mutui sono salite da 0,89% nel Q2 2023 a 1,27% nel Q2 2025.
Analizzando quasi 57 milioni di consumatori con mutuo, l'indagine mostra che l'incremento degli obblighi di debito non ipotecario — in particolare carte di credito, HELOC e prestiti studenteschi — costituisce un segnale precoce di possibili inadempienze sui mutui. Il PTI delle carte di credito è passato da 2,18% a 2,33% nel corso del 2023, correlando con l'aumento delle morosità sui mutui nell'anno successivo.
TransUnion raccomanda il monitoraggio trimestrale dei dati creditizi dei consumatori per identificare rischi emergenti prima che si riflettano nei tradizionali punteggi di credito.
TransUnion (NYSE:TRU) ha publicado un análisis exhaustivo que muestra una fuerte correlación entre el aumento de las ratios pago/ingresos (PTI) y las tasas de morosidad hipotecaria. El estudio indica que las morosidades hipotecarias han subido de 0,89% en el 2T de 2023 a 1,27% en el 2T de 2025.
Examinando cerca de 57 millones de consumidores con hipoteca, el informe evidencia que los incrementos en las obligaciones de deuda no hipotecaria —especialmente en tarjetas de crédito, HELOC y préstamos estudiantiles— actúan como señales tempranas de posibles incumplimientos hipotecarios. El PTI de las tarjetas de crédito aumentó de 2,18% a 2,33% durante 2023, correlacionándose con mayores morosidades hipotecarias al año siguiente.
TransUnion recomienda monitorizar trimestralmente los datos crediticios de los consumidores para detectar riesgos emergentes antes de que aparezcan en las puntuaciones de crédito tradicionales.
TransUnion (NYSE:TRU)는 지불대소득비(PTI) 상승과 주택담보대출 연체율 증가 사이에 유의미한 상관관계가 있음을 밝힌 종합 분석을 발표했습니다. 연구에 따르면 주택담보대출 연체율은 2023년 2분기 0.89%에서 2025년 2분기 1.27%로 상승했습니다.
약 5,700만 명의 주택담보대출 소비자를 조사한 결과, 신용카드, 주택담보대출한도(HELOC), 학자금대출 등 비주택담보 부채 의무의 증가는 주택담보대출 채무불이행의 조기 경고 신호로 작용하는 것으로 나타났습니다. 신용카드 PTI는 2023년 동안 2.18%에서 2.33%로 상승했고, 이는 다음 해의 주택담보대출 연체율 증가와 상관성을 보였습니다.
TransUnion은 전통적 신용점수에 반영되기 전에 잠재적 리스크를 파악하기 위해 소비자 신용데이터를 분기별로 모니터링할 것을 권장합니다.
TransUnion (NYSE:TRU) a publié une analyse approfondie révélant une corrélation significative entre la hausse des ratios paiement/revenu (PTI) et les taux de défaillance des prêts hypothécaires. L'étude montre que les défaillances hypothécaires sont passées de 0,89 % au T2 2023 à 1,27 % au T2 2025.
En examinant près de 57 millions de emprunteurs hypothécaires, l'analyse démontre que l'augmentation des dettes non hypothécaires — notamment cartes de crédit, HELOC et prêts étudiants — constitue un signal précoce de risques de défaut hypothécaire. Le PTI des cartes de crédit est passé de 2,18 % à 2,33 % en 2023, corrélé à une hausse des défaillances l'année suivante.
TransUnion recommande de surveiller trimestriellement les données de crédit des consommateurs afin d'identifier les risques émergents avant qu'ils n'apparaissent dans les scores de crédit traditionnels.
TransUnion (NYSE:TRU) hat eine umfassende Analyse veröffentlicht, die eine deutliche Korrelation zwischen steigenden Zahlungs‑zu‑Einkommen‑Verhältnissen (PTI) und Hypothekenausfallraten aufzeigt. Die Studie belegt, dass die Hypothekenausfälle von 0,89% im 2. Quartal 2023 auf 1,27% im 2. Quartal 2025 gestiegen sind.
Die Untersuchung von fast 57 Millionen Hypothekenkunden zeigt, dass Zunahmen bei nicht‑hypothekarischen Schulden, insbesondere bei Kreditkarten, HELOCs und Studiendarlehen, als Frühwarnzeichen für mögliche Hypothekenausfälle dienen. Der PTI für Kreditkarten stieg 2023 von 2,18% auf 2,33%, was mit erhöhten Hypothekenausfällen im Folgejahr korrespondierte.
TransUnion empfiehlt, Verbraucher‑Kreditdaten vierteljährlich zu überwachen, um aufkommende Risiken zu erkennen, bevor sie sich in traditionellen Kredit-Scores niederschlagen.
- Strong correlation identified between PTI ratios and mortgage delinquency, providing valuable predictive insights
- Development of data-driven tools (TruVision) for early risk detection
- Large study sample of 57 million mortgage consumers ensures reliable findings
- Mortgage delinquency rates increased to 1.27% in Q2 2025, up from 0.89% in Q2 2023
- Rising credit card PTI ratios indicate growing consumer financial stress
- Increasing strain on borrowers' ability to maintain mortgage payments due to rising debt obligations
Insights
TransUnion's research links rising payment-to-income ratios with future mortgage delinquencies, signaling potential credit market deterioration despite currently manageable levels.
TransUnion's analysis reveals a critical early warning signal for the mortgage industry. While current mortgage delinquency rates remain historically low, they've been steadily climbing from
The data shows a compelling pattern: as credit card PTI ratios increased from
What makes this finding particularly valuable is its predictive power. By tracking PTI trends across a consumer's entire credit portfolio, lenders gain approximately 12 months of advance warning before mortgage performance deteriorates. This provides a significant window for intervention strategies.
For TransUnion, this research demonstrates the value proposition of their credit data services and portfolio management tools like TruVision. The company is positioning itself as an essential partner for lenders navigating increasingly complex credit risk environments. Their ability to identify these correlations showcases TransUnion's sophisticated data analytics capabilities and supports their value as a critical financial infrastructure provider.
The gradually rising delinquency trend itself warrants attention, as it may signal broader consumer financial stress developing despite still-modest absolute levels. The research suggests lenders should implement quarterly monitoring of cross-wallet credit data to identify at-risk borrowers before traditional credit scores capture deterioration.
CHICAGO, Aug. 28, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Serious consumer-level delinquency rates (60+ DPD) for mortgage loans—while still at historically low levels—have gradually risen from
The analysis, conducted throughout 2024, focused on how rising debt levels and fluctuations in PTI across various credit products—such as credit cards, Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs), and student loans—may serve as early warning signs of financial stress. These trends were evaluated specifically among the nearly 57 million mortgage consumers who were current on their loans at the time of the study, providing a broad and relevant sample for assessing emerging risk factors.
The study revealed a strong and consistent link between changes in PTI for non-mortgage products, such as credit cards, and subsequent increases in mortgage delinquency rates in the following year. This finding underscores the importance of monitoring PTI trends over time across a consumer’s entire credit portfolio, as increases in non-mortgage debt obligations can be a leading indicator of potential trouble in mortgage performance.
As Consumer Payment-to-Income Ratios Increased for Credit Cards, The Likelihood of Mortgage Delinquency One Year Later Followed | ||||
2023 Mar | 2023 Jun | 2023 Sep | 2023 Dec | |
Credit Card Consumer Payment-to-Income Ratio (%) | 2.18 | 2.25 | 2.31 | 2.33 |
2024 Mar | 2024 Jun | 2024 Sep | 2024 Dec | |
60+ DPD Mortgage Delinquency (%) | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.56 | 0.63 |
Source: TransUnion US consumer credit database |
“The study clearly demonstrates that an increase in payment-to-income ratios for select non-mortgage credit products serves as a strong and reliable signal that these borrowers are significantly more likely to experience mortgage delinquency in the future,” said Jason Laky, executive vice president and head of financial services at TransUnion. “Moreover, evolving patterns in credit card usage may provide additional early indicators of emerging financial stress, offering valuable insights for lenders.”
A similar trend emerged when analyzing PTI ratio patterns for both HELOCs and student loans. In each case, there was a clear and consistent positive correlation between rising PTI ratios and an increased likelihood of mortgage delinquency. This suggests that as borrowers allocate a greater portion of their income toward servicing these types of debt, their ability to stay current on mortgage payments may become increasingly strained.
Mortgage lenders should implement a consistent and proactive schedule for collecting consumers’ cross-wallet credit data—ideally on a quarterly basis—to gain the earliest possible insight into emerging risks of mortgage delinquency. By analyzing trended credit data, lenders can uncover valuable patterns in consumer credit behavior and emerging risks that often precede changes in credit scores. This deeper, historical perspective enables more informed risk assessments and enhances the ability to anticipate financial stress before it becomes visible through traditional scoring metrics.
“In this challenging economic environment, lenders must leverage every available tool at their disposal to more effectively segment and manage risk,” said Satyan Merchant, senior vice president and auto and mortgage business leader at TransUnion. “Trended credit data can play a critical role in identifying shifts in key attributes such as aggregate excess payment, non-mortgage delinquencies, and debt-to-income ratios. These innovative insights can help pinpoint consumers who are at a higher likelihood of becoming delinquent and, importantly, enable lenders to proactively contact and work with consumers at heightened risk of default to help them stay on track and avoid falling behind on payments.”
Tools like TruVision for Managing Customer Portfolios empower mortgage lenders with deeper, more actionable insights into customer behavior, enabling smarter line management decisions and more effective account treatment strategies. By leveraging these capabilities, lenders can stay ahead of evolving consumer needs—identifying behavioral patterns, predicting future actions, and proactively diagnosing account risks. This allows for timely interventions to help mitigate rising delinquencies and potential losses. To learn more about TruVision for Managing Customer Portfolios, click here.
About TransUnion (NYSE: TRU)
TransUnion is a global information and insights company with over 13,000 associates operating in more than 30 countries. We make trust possible by ensuring each person is reliably represented in the marketplace. We do this with a Tru™ picture of each person: an actionable view of consumers, stewarded with care. Through our acquisitions and technology investments we have developed innovative solutions that extend beyond our strong foundation in core credit into areas such as marketing, fraud, risk and advanced analytics. As a result, consumers and businesses can transact with confidence and achieve great things. We call this Information for Good® — and it leads to economic opportunity, great experiences and personal empowerment for millions of people around the world. http://www.transunion.com/business
Contact | Dave Blumberg TransUnion |
E-mail | david.blumberg@transunion.com |
Telephone | 312-972-6646 |
