Rate Trading Rose in October and a Fed Governor Leans Toward Backing a December Hike

Tradeweb’s rates derivatives average daily volume rose 48.9% year over year, outpacing its overall trading growth.

Rhea-AI Summary

Tradeweb Markets (TW) reported October average daily trading volume of $3.6 trillion, up 26.3% year over year, amid broader rate-trading growth. Total monthly volume was $78.9 trillion. U.S. government bond average daily volume rose 32.6% to $304.2 billion, while rates derivatives averaged $1.7 trillion, up 48.9%.

CME and ICE also reported higher October interest-rate trading, while BGC reported record quarterly FMX UST volume. October consumer prices rose 0.4% month over month, versus 0.6% in September; prices excluding food and energy rose 0.3%. Before the inflation release, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he leaned toward a 25-basis-point increase at the December 8–9 meeting and that a 50-basis-point increase should be considered if core inflation was around 0.3% or higher. His views do not necessarily represent the Federal Reserve Board or its policy committee.

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Positive

• Moderate pointTradeweb October average daily volume increased 26.3% year over year to $3.6 trillion.
• Minor pointTradeweb rates derivatives average daily volume rose 48.9% year over year to $1.7 trillion.
• Minor pointTradeweb U.S. government bond average daily volume increased 32.6% year over year to $304.2 billion.

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• None.

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NEW YORK, Nov. 10, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Market Updates News Commentary - U.S. stocks were lower and the 10-year Treasury yield was higher on Tuesday, the day the government released October consumer price data. As of 12:44 p.m. ET, the S&P 500 was down 0.94% at 7,478.79, the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.61% at 24,847.02, and the 10-year yield was 5.01%, compared with 4.86% at Monday's close. Since late October, exchange operators and trading platforms have reported heavier October and third-quarter trading in interest rate products. Active Companies from around the markets with current developments this week include: CME Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CME), Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE), Tradeweb Markets Inc. (Nasdaq: TW), Nasdaq, Inc. (Nasdaq: NDAQ), and BGC Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: BGC).

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported at 8:30 a.m. ET that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in October after rising 0.6 percent in September. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, as it did in September and August. BLS said it did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations and, as a result, cannot publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 for indexes where October 2025 data are unavailable.

Before the CPI release, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller spoke at the Bank of England Watchers Conference in London. In the speech text posted by the Federal Reserve, Waller said that even if the monthly rate of inflation improved in October, as he expected, he was leaning toward supporting an increase in the policy rate of 25 basis points at the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) December meeting, which the Federal Reserve's calendar lists for Dec. 8-9. He added that if the October CPI data were similar to the past two monthly readings, with core CPI inflation around 0.3 percent or even higher, a stronger policy move may be needed. "In that case, I believe a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting," Waller said. A footnote to the text says the views are his own and not necessarily those of his colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the FOMC.

Stock Preachers, a sister site built around technical analysis, publishes Knowledge is Power, a 27-page guide that teaches reading the news and reading the chart in plain English, along with The Roadmap every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, and the guide is available free at market-updates.com/sp.

CME Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CME)

CME Group reported on Nov. 3 that its average daily volume (ADV) reached a new October record of 30 million contracts, an increase of 15% from October 2025. Interest Rate ADV of 14.8 million contracts increased 28%, and U.S. Treasury futures and options ADV increased 48% to 9.2 million contracts, including a 58% increase in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note futures ADV to 2.7 million contracts.

The company also reported record U.S. Repo average daily notional value of $419.5 billion on BrokerTec. In its Oct. 21 third-quarter results, CME Group said ADV climbed to a third-quarter record of 29.4 million contracts.

"As uncertainty intensified in Q3, clients turned to CME Group in record numbers to manage risk and capitalize on opportunities," CME Group Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Terry Duffy said in the Oct. 21 results.

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE)

Intercontinental Exchange reported on Nov. 4 that total October ADV was up 14% year over year and open interest (OI) was up 10%. Total Interest Rates ADV was up 40% with OI up 21%, Total Equity Indices ADV was up 28%, and NYSE Equity Options ADV was up 19%.

On Oct. 29, the company reported third-quarter net revenues of $2.8 billion, up 15% year over year, with net transaction revenues of $1,400 million compared with $1,136 million in the third quarter of 2025.

"Our customers come to ICE to manage risk, to connect with one another, to access our data and to run critical parts of their business on our platforms. They want to trade, hedge and access data whenever markets are moving, and we're building our networks to meet them there," Jeff Sprecher, ICE Chair & Chief Executive Officer, said in the Oct. 29 results.

Tradeweb Markets Inc. (Nasdaq: TW)

Tradeweb reported on Nov. 5 that October total trading volume was $78.9 trillion and ADV was $3.6 trillion, an increase of 26.3 percent year over year. U.S. government bond ADV was up 32.6% to $304.2 billion, and total rates derivatives ADV was up 48.9% to $1.7 trillion. The company said swaps and swaptions of one year or longer saw stronger risk trading activity year over year, driven by shifting global central bank policy expectations, persistent energy-related inflation pressures, and uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of continued geopolitical tensions.

"Against a backdrop of rising Treasury yields, shifting central bank policy and geopolitical uncertainty, we continued helping clients access liquidity and manage risk while investing in opportunities to drive our long-term growth," Billy Hult, CEO of Tradeweb, said in the company's Oct. 29 third-quarter results.

Nasdaq, Inc. (Nasdaq: NDAQ)

Nasdaq reported monthly volumes for October 2026 on its Investor Relations website on Nov. 4. In its third-quarter results on Oct. 22, the company reported net revenue of $1.5 billion, an increase of 13%, and Market Services net revenue of $309 million, up 2%. Nasdaq said Market Services net revenue benefitted from higher industry volumes across U.S. options and European equities with robust performance in U.S. cash equities.

The company said The Nasdaq Stock Market remains on track to go live with 23/5 trading on December 6, 2026.

"Markets are evolving towards an AI-driven, Always-On future that is increasingly integrated across asset classes and geographies," Adena Friedman, Chair and CEO of Nasdaq, said in the Oct. 22 results.

BGC Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: BGC)

BGC Group reported on Nov. 5 third quarter revenues of $832.6 million, up 13.0 percent, a third quarter record on a BGC standalone basis. FMX UST average daily volume grew 40 percent year over year to a third quarter record of $83.0 billion, and FMX UST's third quarter market share was 42 percent, up from 37 percent a year ago.

FMX Futures Exchange delivered a record quarter with ADV of more than 80,000 contracts. The company said volumes accelerated through the quarter, reaching an average of 112,000 contracts per day in September, driven by increased client adoption and the listing of the full U.S. Treasury futures curve in August.

"In August, FMX listed the full U.S. Treasury futures curve, which drove volumes to new all-time highs in September," John Abularrage, Co-Chief Executive Officer of BGC Group, said in the Nov. 5 results.

BLS has scheduled the November CPI release for Thursday, Dec. 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET, the day after the FOMC's Dec. 8-9 meeting ends. Readers who want index levels and a support and resistance map three times a week can get The Roadmap, along with the free Knowledge is Power guide, from Stock Preachers at market-updates.com/sp.

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This article is independent news commentary. Market Updates is wholly owned and operated by Market Equities Limited ("MEL"), a company incorporated under the laws of Ireland. MEL has not been paid by any company mentioned in this article. MEL and its owners, operators, directors, and affiliates do not currently own any shares of the companies mentioned in this article, but reserve the right to, and will, buy and sell shares of those companies at any time without further notice. S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and 10-year Treasury yield levels are market data from a third-party quote service as of 12:44 p.m. ET on November 10, 2026, with prior closes from the same source. Consumer price figures are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' October 2026 CPI release; Governor Waller's remarks are from the speech text posted by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and FOMC meeting dates are from the Federal Reserve's published calendar. Information is drawn from company news releases and filings, government and industry data, published reporting and third-party data believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing in securities carries risk, including the loss of some or all of your investment. This document is governed by the laws of Ireland.

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FAQ

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How much did Tradeweb trading volume grow in October 2026?

Tradeweb’s October average daily trading volume increased 26.3% year over year to $3.6 trillion. Total trading volume for the month was $78.9 trillion. Rates derivatives average daily volume rose 48.9%, while U.S. government bond average daily volume increased 32.6%.

What did Fed Governor Waller say about a December 2026 rate increase?

Before the October inflation release, Waller said he was leaning toward a 25-basis-point policy-rate increase at the December 8–9 meeting. He said a 50-basis-point increase should be considered if October core inflation was around 0.3% or higher. These were his own views, not necessarily those of his colleagues.

What drove Tradeweb’s October activity in longer-dated swaps and swaptions?

Tradeweb attributed stronger year-over-year risk trading in swaps and swaptions of one year or longer to shifting global central bank policy expectations, persistent energy-related inflation pressures and uncertainty about the economic impact of continued geopolitical tensions.

Will November 2026 CPI data arrive before the December Fed meeting?

No. The November consumer price report is scheduled for December 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET, the day after the December 8–9 Federal Open Market Committee meeting ends.