Verisk Estimates Insured Losses for Winter Storm Fern Could Reach USD 4 Billion

Rhea-AI Summary

Verisk (Nasdaq: VRSK) estimates insured industry losses from Winter Storm Fern could reach USD 4 billion, driven primarily by freeze impacts with supplemental wind and snow losses.

Early modeling shows 14 states may each exceed USD 50 million in insured losses; if sustained, Fern would rank as the third costliest U.S. winter storm on record.

The event was modeled with Verisk's updated U.S. Winter Storm Model (scheduled for June 2026), which explicitly models freezing rain and power-interconnection vulnerabilities.

Positive

• Estimated industry loss quantified at USD 4 billion
• Updated winter storm model includes explicit freezing rain modeling
• Model captures U.S. power interconnection vulnerability and outages
• 14 states potentially exceeding USD 50 million in insured losses

Negative

• Freeze expected to be the largest driver of insured losses
• Ongoing power outages in the interior Southeast complicate loss estimates
• If confirmed, Fern would be the third costliest U.S. winter storm

News Market Reaction – VRSK

-10.11%

81 alerts

-10.11% News Effect

-6.8% Trough in 3 hr 47 min

-$3.36B Valuation Impact

$29.85B Market Cap

0.8x Rel. Volume

On the day this news was published, VRSK declined 10.11%, reflecting a significant negative market reaction. Argus tracked a trough of -6.8% from its starting point during tracking. Our momentum scanner triggered 81 alerts that day, indicating high trading interest and price volatility. This price movement removed approximately $3.36B from the company's valuation, bringing the market cap to $29.85B at that time.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Key Figures

Estimated insured losses: USD 4 billion States above loss threshold: 14 states State loss threshold: USD 50 million +5 more

8 metrics

Estimated insured losses USD 4 billion Industry property and auto losses from Winter Storm Fern

States above loss threshold 14 states States each potentially exceeding USD 50 million insured losses

State loss threshold USD 50 million Per-state insured loss level in Verisk’s model outputs

Icing severity Up to 1 inch Most severe freezing rain from eastern Texas to Kentucky

Snow accumulation Over 1 foot Snowfall in several areas of affected northern states

Wind gusts Above 60 mph Severe thunderstorms in southern Alabama and Georgia

Storm dates Jan 23–26 Period when Winter Storm Fern affected multiple U.S. regions

Model release timing June 2026 Scheduled release for updated Verisk U.S. Winter Storm Model

Market Reality Check

Price: $214.75 Vol: Volume 795,345 is below 2...

low vol

$214.75 Last Close

Volume Volume 795,345 is below 20-day average 1,166,718 (relative volume 0.68x). low

Technical Shares at 214.15 trade below 200-day MA 261.12 and 33.68% under 52-week high 322.92.

Peers on Argus

VRSK is down 1.52% while 4 data/analytics peers in momentum (EFX, TRI, RELX, GPN...

4 Down

VRSK is down 1.52% while 4 data/analytics peers in momentum (EFX, TRI, RELX, GPN) are also moving down (median move -12.9%), pointing to broader sector pressure beyond company-specific factors.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Jan 21 (Neutral)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Jan 21	Earnings date notice	Neutral	-0.9%	Announcement of upcoming Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings release and webcast.
Jan 08	Business divestiture	Positive	+0.9%	Sale of Verisk Marketing Solutions to refocus on global insurance data and analytics.
Dec 29	Acquisition terminated	Positive	+2.0%	Ended AccuLynx acquisition; redeeming <b>$1.50B</b> notes and preserving buyback capacity.
Dec 10	Cyber partnership	Positive	-0.7%	Expanded KYND collaboration to embed cyber risk intelligence into Rulebook platform.
Dec 02	Fraud tools integration	Positive	+0.4%	Carpe Data’s injury-claim fraud tools added to Verisk ClaimSearch ecosystem.

Pattern Detected

Recent news has generally produced modest, directionally consistent moves, with one notable divergence on a positive cyber collaboration headline.

Recent Company History

Over the last few months, Verisk has focused on portfolio refinement and insurance-centric growth. It announced an earnings date on Jan 21, 2026, divested its Marketing Solutions business on Jan 8, 2026 to reinforce its global insurance focus, and terminated the AccuLynx acquisition while redeeming $1.50 billion in notes. Partnerships such as the KYND cyber collaboration and Carpe Data integration expanded analytics capabilities. Today’s storm-loss modeling update fits this pattern of emphasizing core insurance risk analytics.

Market Pulse Summary

The stock dropped -10.1% in the session following this news. A negative reaction despite the operati...

Analysis

The stock dropped -10.1% in the session following this news. A negative reaction despite the operationally relevant content would fit a pattern where stock moves are often modest around news. The article emphasizes industry losses up to USD 4 billion and model improvements, not direct financial guidance. With the stock already 33.68% under its 52-week high and broader peers showing weakness, investors could reassess sector risk or valuation, especially after earlier portfolio and capital-allocation updates in late 2025.

Key Terms

freezing rain, tornado touchdowns, u.s. winter storm model

3 terms

freezing rain technical

"Fern affected the Midwest, Northeast, South... bringing freezing rain, heavy snow"

Freezing rain occurs when falling raindrops pass through a thin layer of air below freezing and then freeze on contact with cold surfaces, forming a smooth, heavy glaze of ice. It matters to investors because that ice can snap power lines, ground flights, block roads and slow supply chains, creating sudden costs, lost revenue and higher insurance or repair bills—similar to a sheet of glass suddenly coating infrastructure and halting normal operations.

tornado touchdowns technical

"Severe thunderstorms... produced wind gusts above 60 mph, small hail and several tornado touchdowns."

Instances when a tornado’s rotating funnel reaches and moves across the ground, marking where the storm made direct contact and can leave a concentrated path of damage—imagine a very large vehicle driving through buildings and trees. Investors care because each touchdown identifies locations of potential property and infrastructure loss, insurance claims, business interruptions and supply‑chain delays that can raise costs, reduce revenue and affect the share prices of companies operating in the impacted area.

u.s. winter storm model technical

"Early results from Verisk’s updated U.S. Winter Storm Model indicate that 14 states..."

A U.S. winter storm model is a weather forecasting tool that predicts the path, intensity and timing of winter storms—including snow, ice and cold snaps—across the United States. Investors use these models like a traffic report for the power, transport and commodity markets: accurate forecasts help anticipate disruptions to energy demand and supply, infrastructure damage, insurance claims and company operations, all of which can affect stock prices and trading risks.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Freeze is expected to be the largest driver of insured losses among the modeled perils

BOSTON, Feb. 03, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) --  Verisk (Nasdaq: VRSK), a leading strategic data analytics and technology provider to the global insurance industry, estimates insured industry losses to property and auto from Winter Storm Fern could reach USD 4 billion, according to an initial analysis by the company’s Catastrophe and Risk Solutions group. Freeze impacts are expected to be the largest driver of losses, with supplemental losses from wind and snow.

Meteorological Summary

Winter Storm Fern affected the Midwest, Northeast, South, Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic from Jan. 23–26, bringing freezing rain, heavy snow and severe thunderstorms.

• Freezing rain caused widespread power outages across Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia. The most severe icing — up to 1 inch — was reported from eastern Texas into northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Kentucky, increasing the likelihood of burst pipes.
• Heavy snow fell across New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Illinois and Ohio, with accumulations topping 1 foot in several areas and cold temperatures hampering repair efforts.
• Severe thunderstorms in southern Alabama and southern Georgia produced wind gusts above 60 mph, small hail and several tornado touchdowns.

Modeling Insights

Early results from Verisk’s updated U.S. Winter Storm Model indicate that 14 states, stretching from Texas to Massachusetts, may each exceed USD 50 million in insured losses. If estimates hold, Fern would be the third costliest U.S. winter storm on record, behind Winter Storm Elliott (2022) and Winter Storm Uri (2021).

Fern was unusually intense, driven by the collision of warm, moist subtropical air with extremely cold Arctic air. Loss estimation is further complicated by the storm’s varied regional impacts and ongoing power outages in the interior Southeast.

This event was modeled using the updated Verisk U.S. Winter Storm Model, scheduled for release in June 2026, and includes key enhancements, such as:

• Explicit modeling of freezing rain and its downstream impacts on loss.
• Captures the vulnerability of the U.S. power interconnections and potential for outages across the U.S., along with their knock-on effects on damage and loss.

These updates strengthen the model’s ability to simulate storms like Fern and better capture primary loss drivers.

Verisk continues to monitor impacts from this event and may provide additional information.

About Verisk
Verisk (Nasdaq: VRSK) is a leading strategic data analytics and technology partner to the global insurance industry. It empowers clients to strengthen operating efficiency, improve underwriting and claims outcomes, combat fraud and make informed decisions about global risks, including climate change, catastrophic events, sustainability and political issues. Through advanced data analytics, software, scientific research and deep industry knowledge, Verisk helps build global resilience for individuals, communities and businesses. With teams across more than 20 countries, Verisk consistently earns certification by Great Place to Work and fosters an inclusive culture where all team members feel they belong. For more, visit Verisk.com and the Verisk Newsroom.

###

Mary Keller
Verisk
339-832-7048
mary.keller@verisk.com

FAQ

How much did Verisk estimate Winter Storm Fern insured losses could be for VRSK on Feb 3, 2026?

Verisk estimated up to USD 4 billion in insured industry losses. According to the company, freeze impacts were the primary driver, with supplemental losses from wind and snow across multiple U.S. regions.

Which U.S. states did Verisk say could exceed USD 50 million in insured losses from Winter Storm Fern (VRSK)?

Verisk indicated 14 states from Texas to Massachusetts may each exceed USD 50 million. According to the company, impacts spanned the Midwest, Northeast, South, Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic from Jan. 23–26.

What made Winter Storm Fern unusually damaging, per Verisk's analysis for VRSK?

Fern was unusually intense due to collision of moist subtropical air and extremely cold Arctic air. According to the company, that setup produced freezing rain, heavy snow, severe thunderstorms, and widespread power outages.

How did Verisk model Winter Storm Fern and what enhancements were used for VRSK's estimate?

Verisk used its updated U.S. Winter Storm Model with explicit freezing rain and power-interconnection vulnerability modeling. According to the company, these enhancements better capture freezing-rain losses and knock-on outage effects.

Where would Fern rank among U.S. winter storms if Verisk's USD 4 billion estimate holds for VRSK?

If estimates hold, Fern would be the third costliest U.S. winter storm on record. According to the company, only Winter Storm Elliott (2022) and Winter Storm Uri (2021) were costlier.