Commodity trade faces geopolitical turbulence, Willis reports

Rhea-AI Summary

Willis (NASDAQ: WTW) published a report, Managing the new economic risks in commodity trading, identifying renewed geopolitical and policy risks for commodity traders on Oct 16, 2025. The report highlights tariffs as the top economic threat, plus China economic risk, climate-driven logistics changes, Ukraine escalation, and maritime disruption. It also flags rising European sustainability regulation and potential global bond-market turmoil as under‑the‑radar risks. The authors consulted an international panel and produced a global risk radar and risk-by-risk synthesis to help traders manage volatility and supply‑chain pressure.

LONDON, Oct. 16, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Commodity traders are facing renewed geopolitical risks as military conflicts proliferate, tariffs increase, and global supply chains come under pressure, although these challenges could drive volatility-driven profits for some players, according to a new report from by Willis, a WTW business (NASDAQ: WTW), Managing the new economic risks in commodity trading.

Recent market volatility in response to US tariff threats against China highlight the report’s central question: whether commodity giants are prepared to navigate unpredictable deglobalization pressures. To explore this, Willis and Oxford Analytica consulted an international panel of senior external-affairs and risk leaders, producing a global risk radar and risk-by-risk synthesis of how leading global commodity traders view these challenges.

The top risks that emerged from the report were:

• Tariffs: Tariffs emerge as the biggest economic threat to commodity traders, reshaping trade flows, freezing decision-making and injecting unprecedented policy uncertainty.
• China economic risk: China is still the largest buyer in most commodity sectors. Slowing growth, deflation risks and the fading of unexpected tariff-driven stimulus could affect balance sheets, making close monitoring of the economy essential.
• Complications of a changing climate: Climate change is reshaping commodity markets, altering seasonal fuel demand, increasing pesticide use and straining river-based logistics.
• Ukraine escalation: Geopolitical tensions around military conflicts continue to impact commodity markets with the threat of renewed Black Sea trade disruptions, Russian grey zone escalation and broader militarisation raising fears of supply shocks.
• Maritime disruption: Maritime trade is facing rising disruption as drone-enabled attacks, grey zone tactics and weakening global security guarantees make sea lanes riskier. This drives up costs, the rerouting of ships and threatening the flow of global commodities.
  

The report also examines risks that are flying under the radar but could become top concerns tomorrow. One of these is the evolution of European sustainability regulation and policy, which have in the past shaped how the global market operates, and the ability of authorities to balance the need for reliable, affordable imports with concerns such as data privacy and climate impact. Another risk mentioned is potential turmoil in the global bond market, following decades of extraordinary stimulus ending in a sudden stop in order to combat surging post-pandemic inflation. While few wide-ranging consequences have been observed so far in advanced economies, some concerns arise from isolated examples that could breed larger problems.

Evan Freely, global head of Willis credit risk solutions said: “The world has entered a more protectionist era in which many governments and businesses are moving to onshore production of goods. However, trade remains as vital as ever, especially with commodities that are simply not present, or very difficult to produce, in many geographies. The right risk management solutions are a vital enabler in the commodity trading sector to prevent shortages and supply chain issues and protect operations. We hope the findings in our report are valuable for those active in this space and we thank our contributors for sharing such rich first-hand insight and experiences.”

The complete report can be downloaded here.

About WTW

At WTW (NASDAQ: WTW), we provide data-driven, insight-led solutions in the areas of people, risk and capital. Leveraging the global view and local expertise of our colleagues serving 140 countries and markets, we help organizations sharpen their strategy, enhance organizational resilience, motivate their workforce and maximize performance.

Working shoulder to shoulder with our clients, we uncover opportunities for sustainable success—and provide perspective that moves you. Learn more at wtwco.com.

Media contact

Lauren David:
Lauren.david@wtwco.com / +44 7385947619

FAQ

What risks did Willis identify for commodity traders in the Oct 16, 2025 report (WTW)?

Willis listed tariffs, China economic risk, climate impacts on logistics, Ukraine escalation, and maritime disruption as the top risks.

How does the Willis (WTW) report say tariffs affect commodity trading?

The report says tariffs reshape trade flows, freeze decision-making and inject policy uncertainty that can disrupt commodity markets.

What does the Willis (WTW) report say about China’s role in commodity demand?

Willis notes China remains the largest buyer in most commodity sectors and that slowing growth or reduced tariff-driven stimulus could strain balance sheets.

Does the Willis (WTW) report mention climate change impacts on commodity logistics?

Yes; the report cites altered seasonal fuel demand, increased pesticide use and strain on river-based logistics as climate-driven effects.

What under‑the‑radar risks does Willis (WTW) highlight that could affect commodity markets?

Willis flags evolving European sustainability regulation and potential turmoil in the global bond market as emerging risks.

How can investors use the Willis (WTW) report findings for risk management?

Investors can monitor tariff and China indicators, assess supply‑chain vulnerabilities, and consider volatility scenarios highlighted in the report.