Buyer demand hanging tough, despite rates and seasonal cooldown

Rhea-AI Summary

Zillow (Z) Reports Recovering Inventory Deficit Amid Strong Competition in the U.S. Housing Market

Positive

• Despite the housing market turning cooler, Zillow's report indicates a gradual recovery in inventory levels and a slowing price appreciation.
• The total inventory rose by 2.6% month over month, while new listings saw a deficit of only 1.2% from the year prior, the smallest since May 2022.
• Mortgage rates reaching 23-year highs led to a 4% increase in monthly payments from September to October, up almost 10% compared to last October.

Negative

• None.

Inventory deficit lessens while competition over attractive listings has them selling fast

• A deficit of new listings shrank to 1.2% below last year as total inventory rose 2.6% month over month.
• Mortgage payments have risen more than 4% in a month and almost 10% in a year.
• Listings typically are selling in 16 days — slower than last month, but two weeks faster than in 2019.

SEATTLE, Nov. 13, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Despite mortgage rates reaching 23-year highs, low inventory levels are spurring surprisingly strong competition, according to Zillow's latest market report¹. Depleted inventory stocks are gradually recovering, and price appreciation is slowing, but demand has remained resilient, and attractive, appropriately priced listings are moving quickly.

"With mortgage rates nearing 8% in October, the U.S. housing market continues to turn cooler, with inventory rising, and appreciation decelerating. As interest rates rose, some pent-up sellers appear to have been shaken free of waiting for rates to drop. New listings have nearly escaped the red annually and are trending out of a mortgage rate lock-induced hole," said Skylar Olsen, Zillow chief economist. "A record number of households in prime home-buying ages are providing buyers, despite the headwinds." 

The key number for any potential buyer or seller is the mortgage rate, which marched skyward through October and finished the month near 8%. Rate hikes pushed monthly payments on a typical U.S. home up by more than 4% from September to October. At $1,991, monthly payments² are up almost 10% compared to last October and have nearly doubled in two years. 

The Zillow Home Value Index puts the typical U.S. home value at $347,972, up 2.3% from last year. A 0.3% monthly decline in values in October is a tad steeper than the 0.1% dip from August to September, and shows a slightly faster deceleration than pre-pandemic norms. 

Home values fell in October in 40 of the top 50 markets, with the largest declines in Austin (-1.5%), Minneapolis (-1%) and New Orleans (-1%). The largest monthly growth was in sunny (and costly) Miami (0.5%), San Jose (0.4%) and San Diego (0.2%). 

Annual appreciation is strongest in Hartford (11.4%), Milwaukee (8.5%), Providence (7%) and Boston (6.8%) — all metros that avoided extreme early-pandemic growth spurts. 

Inventory still depleted, but slowly recovering
New listings fell nearly 5% from September, a smaller drop than would be expected seasonally. But levels were still the lowest to hit the market in any October recorded by Zillow (since 2018). 

Despite this, the longstanding deficit in new listings is generally shrinking as some sellers accept that high rates are sticking around. A shortfall of only 1.2% from the year prior is the smallest since May 2022, and a deficit of 19% compared to pre-pandemic levels is much improved from a trough of -35% in April. 

There were still a massive 39% fewer homes for sale in October than pre-pandemic norms, but that's an improvement over the 46% deficit in May. Total inventory climbed 2.6% nationally from September to October — a result of fewer sales and an unexpectedly small September dropoff in new listings. 

As sellers come to grips with higher-for-longer mortgage rate expectations, "rate lock" is likely to ease a bit and encourage sales — about 70% of sellers turn around and buy. Seasonally adjusted sales counts, down 31% in July from normal levels, are now improved to down 26% in October³.

Competition easing, but still tight for attractive listings
Rising rates and recovering inventory translate to fewer buyers in bidding wars and more sellers cutting list prices. In October, 25.2% of sellers cut their list price, up from 23.9% in September. The share of sales that closed for higher than list price fell from almost 37% in August to 34% in September, but that's still well above pre-pandemic norms of the low- to mid-20s. 

But attractive listings are still moving fast. Listings that sold in October typically did so in 16 days – one day longer than in September, but two days faster than last year and two weeks faster than in 2019. 

Metropolitan Area*	October Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) (Raw)	ZHVI Change, Year over Year (YoY)	ZHVI Change, Month over Month (MoM)	Median Days to Pending Change, YoY	Share of Listings with a Price Cut	New inventory change, YoY	Total Inventory Change, YoY
United States	$347,972	2.3 %	-0.3 %	-2	25.2 %	-1.2 %	-5.9 %
New York, NY	$629,445	3.7 %	0.2 %	-6	15.5 %	-9.8 %	-22.4 %
Los Angeles, CA	$912,049	4.7 %	0.1 %	-7	19.6 %	-5.1 %	-21.8 %
Chicago, IL	$306,751	5.3 %	-0.2 %	-5	25.9 %	-4.6 %	-19.9 %
Dallas, TX	$368,645	-1.6 %	-0.7 %	3	33.4 %	2.3 %	8.4 %
Houston, TX	$301,794	-1.2 %	-0.7 %	3	28.6 %	-4.2 %	0.2 %
Washington, DC	$543,054	3.2 %	-0.3 %	-6	25.3 %	-13.4 %	-26.3 %
Philadelphia, PA	$345,783	6.1 %	-0.2 %	-1	24.8 %	-6.6 %	-13.7 %
Miami, FL	$475,761	6.0 %	0.5 %	-2	22.2 %	11.8 %	5.6 %
Atlanta, GA	$374,449	1.9 %	-0.2 %	2	28.2 %	-1.7 %	-11.3 %
Boston, MA	$659,680	6.8 %	-0.1 %	-3	21.9 %	-9.3 %	-18.9 %
Phoenix, AZ	$451,934	-2.4 %	0.1 %	-18	31.7 %	-4.4 %	-32.6 %
San Francisco, CA	$1,127,374	-0.6 %	-0.4 %	-6	21.5 %	-5.4 %	-17.3 %
Riverside, CA	$562,606	1.9 %	0.2 %	-10	22.7 %	-5.2 %	-21.6 %
Detroit, MI	$241,926	4.3 %	-0.4 %	-5	25.0 %	-9.5 %	-19.4 %
Seattle, WA	$704,655	0.4 %	-0.5 %		28.2 %	-15.5 %	-28.5 %
Minneapolis, MN	$365,378	0.9 %	-1.0 %	-1	29.9 %	-7.7 %	-10.3 %
San Diego, CA	$903,946	6.5 %	0.2 %	-8	22.9 %	-3.2 %	-26.3 %
Tampa, FL	$376,834	0.3 %	0.0 %	-2	35.5 %	6.2 %	1.4 %
Denver, CO	$573,866	-0.6 %	-0.6 %		33.1 %	2.2 %	-0.3 %
Baltimore, MD	$373,192	4.1 %	-0.4 %	-2	27.9 %	-1.8 %	-13.3 %
St. Louis, MO	$241,975	5.1 %	-0.5 %	0	26.1 %	-0.3 %	2.2 %
Orlando, FL	$389,868	1.8 %	0.0 %	-3	30.2 %	6.9 %	-0.3 %
Charlotte, NC	$372,737	1.3 %	-0.1 %	-2.5	24.7 %	-7.3 %	-4.6 %
San Antonio, TX	$286,357	-2.9 %	-0.9 %	16.5	33.4 %	-9.7 %	14.0 %
Portland, OR	$536,648	-0.2 %	-0.7 %	2	30.1 %	-13.2 %	-11.6 %
Sacramento, CA	$565,137	-1.3 %	-0.4 %	-12	26.7 %	-12.0 %	-30.8 %
Pittsburgh, PA	$206,862	3.5 %	-0.5 %	-2	29.3 %	-4.3 %	-11.5 %
Cincinnati, OH	$271,320	5.2 %	-0.6 %	1	28.1 %	-6.2 %	-8.0 %
Austin, TX	$457,662	-9.2 %	-1.5 %	11.5	30.6 %	-6.2 %	-4.8 %
Las Vegas, NV	$407,838	-2.6 %	0.1 %	-22	24.5 %	-11.9 %	-42.1 %
Kansas City, MO	$293,286	5.2 %	-0.4 %	0	30.5 %	-7.5 %	-7.0 %
Columbus, OH	$301,588	4.7 %	-0.5 %	0	31.3 %	-10.7 %	-10.4 %
Indianapolis, IN	$269,854	2.0 %	-0.5 %	2	35.5 %	-8.3 %	-5.1 %
Cleveland, OH	$217,199	5.6 %	-0.3 %	-2	26.1 %	-1.3 %	-10.6 %
San Jose, CA	$1,494,974	5.5 %	0.4 %	-15	19.1 %	3.5 %	-15.4 %
Nashville, TN	$432,241	-1.1 %	-0.3 %	-1	33.6 %	-17.5 %	-13.3 %
Virginia Beach, VA	$334,645	5.9 %	-0.4 %	3	23.6 %	-5.9 %	-9.1 %
Providence, RI	$455,996	7.0 %	0.0 %	-1.5	21.6 %	0.4 %	-15.1 %
Jacksonville, FL	$353,450	-1.9 %	-0.3 %	12	31.8 %	-10.2 %	-5.5 %
Milwaukee, WI	$328,245	8.5 %	-0.6 %	-7	21.5 %	7.7 %	-2.8 %
Oklahoma City, OK	$227,269	3.3 %	-0.4 %	4	29.0 %	-0.7 %	10.4 %
Raleigh, NC	$435,076	-0.2 %	-0.3 %		34.1 %	-8.8 %	-18.5 %
Memphis, TN	$233,352	-1.0 %	-0.7 %	9	27.2 %	-0.9 %	18.0 %
Richmond, VA	$350,197	4.7 %	-0.5 %	0	24.3 %	-3.9 %	-12.0 %
Louisville, KY	$247,684	4.1 %	-0.4 %	0	30.0 %	2.0 %	0.0 %
New Orleans, LA	$240,461	-9.0 %	-1.0 %	12	26.9 %	-9.5 %	12.2 %
Salt Lake City, UT	$534,901	-0.7 %	-0.2 %	-2	36.3 %	-11.8 %	-14.6 %
Hartford, CT	$341,293	11.4 %	0.1 %	-1	16.5 %	-5.7 %	-9.3 %
Buffalo, NY	$249,902	5.5 %	-0.3 %	0	20.6 %	8.9 %	-5.1 %
Birmingham, AL	$248,888	0.1 %	-0.8 %	4	23.8 %	-8.1 %	-0.9 %

^{*Table ordered by market size} 

¹  The Zillow® Real Estate Market Report is a monthly overview of the national and local real estate markets. The reports are compiled by Zillow Research. For more information, visit www.zillow.com/research.
² Monthly mortgage payment represents the principle and interest on a new purchase of a home priced at October's Zillow Home Value Index level of $347,972, using a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage.
³ October sales from Zillow Nowcast, earlier sales are observed closed sales on Zillow.

About Zillow Group
Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z and ZG) is reimagining real estate to make home a reality for more and more people. As the most visited real estate website in the United States, Zillow and its affiliates help people find and get the home they want by connecting them with digital solutions, great partners, and easier buying, selling, financing and renting experiences. 

Zillow Group's affiliates, subsidiaries and brands include Zillow®; Zillow Premier Agent®; Zillow Home Loans℠; Trulia®; Out East®; StreetEasy®; HotPads®; ShowingTime+℠; and Spruce®. 

All marks herein are owned by MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow affiliate. Zillow Home Loans, LLC is an Equal Housing Lender, NMLS #10287 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). © 2023 MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow affiliate.

(ZFIN)

View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/buyer-demand-hanging-tough-despite-rates-and-seasonal-cooldown-301985200.html

SOURCE Zillow

FAQ

What is the current deficit in new listings according to Zillow's report?

Zillow's report indicates a deficit of only 1.2% in new listings from the year prior, showing a gradual recovery.

How much did mortgage payments increase in October compared to September?

Mortgage payments on a typical U.S. home increased by more than 4% from September to October, up almost 10% compared to last October.

What is the total inventory change month over month according to Zillow's report?

The total inventory rose by 2.6% nationally from September to October, indicating a positive change.