Home sellers step back, despite three-year high in affordability
Rhea-AI Summary
Zillow (NYSE: Z) reports seasonal cooling in November 2025 after an unseasonably active fall: new listings fell nearly 30% month-over-month, price cuts eased from 26.9% to 21.2% of listings, and newly pending sales dropped 18.5% month-over-month. Nationally, typical home values rose just 0.2% year-over-year while inventory rose 11.2% YoY. Mortgage payments as a share of median household income fell to 32.6%, the lowest since August 2022, improving affordability slightly heading into 2026.
Positive
- Inventory up 11.2% YoY
- Mortgage payment share down to 32.6% (lowest since Aug 2022)
- Typical home values near flat at +0.2% YoY
Negative
- New listings declined ~30% month-over-month in November 2025
- Newly pending sales fell 18.5% month-over-month in November 2025
Key Figures
Market Reality Check
Peers on Argus
Z fell 1.86% with several key peers also down (e.g., ZG -1.9%, BIDU -2.45%, TME -1.62%), while PINS was slightly positive at +0.39%. With scanner data showing no coordinated momentum, the move looked more stock‑specific than a broad sector rotation.
Historical Context
| Date | Event | Sentiment | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16 | Market rankings update | Neutral | +2.5% | 2025 rankings highlighted Midwest affordability and strong external buyer interest. |
| Dec 15 | Seasonal marketing piece | Neutral | -8.5% | List of most festive holiday towns and promotion of Zillow affordability tools. |
| Dec 11 | Mortgage research note | Neutral | +0.3% | Analysis showing most buyers skip rate shopping and potential savings impact. |
| Dec 10 | Brand/engagement campaign | Neutral | +1.3% | Relaunch of virtual "Santa's House" experience showcasing Zillow listing tools. |
| Dec 04 | Housing outlook | Neutral | -0.8% | Forecast for modest 2026 housing rebound and improving affordability metrics. |
Recent Zillow macro/research releases have generally produced mild price moves, with one notable negative reaction to a consumer-interest themed ranking piece.
Over the past few weeks, Zillow has issued a stream of research-driven and seasonal content. On Dec 4, economists outlined a modestly improving 2026 housing outlook. This was followed by marketing and research pieces such as the "Santa's House" campaign and analyses on mortgage rate shopping and popular or festive markets, each tying Zillow’s data to consumer behavior. Taken together, these updates emphasize Zillow’s role as a housing data platform, and today’s affordability-focused report fits that ongoing macro and consumer-insight narrative.
Market Pulse Summary
This announcement details how housing affordability improved slightly in 2025, with monthly mortgage payments for a typical home falling from 35.7% to 32.6% of median household income and national ZHVI edging up just 0.2%. It also underscores cooling new listings and normalized price-cut activity. In context of Zillow’s recent stream of macro research, investors may watch how affordability, inventory shifts, and buyer leverage ultimately influence Zillow’s traffic, leads, and transaction-related revenue.
Key Terms
zillow home value index (zhvi) technical
zillow market heat index technical
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Buyers gained options, leverage and ground on affordability in 2025
- Sellers hunkered down — new listings declined
30% from October to November to return to seasonal averages. - Price cuts fell from near-record highs to seasonal norms.
- Mortgage payments as a share of median household income fell to
32.6% , the lowest since 2022.
"Affordability is still a hurdle for home buyers, but 2025 brought real progress," said Zillow Senior Economist Kara Ng. "Mortgage payments dropped by more than
Seasonality strikes, cooling listings and sales
Low mortgage rates in September and October pushed buyers and sellers to be more active than usual. But November saw a return to seasonality, despite mortgage rates that ticked down to 2025 lows.
Homeowners without a need to sell are likely deciding to wait out the winter. New listings from sellers fell sharply, nearly
Calendar effects may explain some of the pullback in new listings: October has more Thursdays and Fridays than last year, and November has fewer — Thursday and Friday are the biggest days of the week for listing homes. However, the precipitous drop still marks the end of an unseasonably warm fall, as sellers reset before the coming year.
Price cuts from sellers also dropped, from being offered on a near-record
Newly pending sales that stayed steady in October finally succumbed to the seasonal slowdown in November, falling
2025 national trends in review
The housing market continued to rebalance in 2025 in the wake of explosive cost increases early in the pandemic. Buyers saw several factors move in their favor over the course of the year. These are the biggest housing macro moves from 2025:
- Rates ruled the rhythm of the market. Spiking mortgage rates in early 2025 cooled the spring shopping season, keeping buyers cautious despite rising listings. Zillow market reports show that when rates eased over the summer, activity rebounded, pulling buyers and sellers back into the market before settling into normal seasonal patterns by November.
- Inventory increased, and buyers gained leverage. Inventory accumulated as sellers outnumbered buyers through the spring and early summer. Growth compared to the prior year peaked at
22.8% in March, and a longstanding deficit in inventory shrank from24% below pre-pandemic levels on New Year's Day to a17% shortfall by the end of November. - Home values flattened. Typical home values nationwide are up just
0.2% over last year, a welcome reprieve for buyers who watched prices skyrocket in past years. At the property level,53% of home values fell over the past year, according to Zillow research. But the vast majority of homes have gained value since their last sale. - Affordability improved (slightly). Affordability remains a major challenge, but it did improve slightly in 2025, thanks to declining mortgage rates, flattened home values and growing incomes. Monthly mortgage payments for a typical house required
35.7% of median household income at the start of the year (with a20% down payment). That declined to32.6% in November, the lowest since August 2022.
Zillow economists expect2 mortgage rates to continue their gentle path downward in 2026, helping home values and sales to bounce back after a flat year.
Metro Area* | Zillow | ZHVI | Mortgage | Market | Inventory | Inventory | New |
0.2 % | 32.6 % | Neutral | 11.2 % | -16.9 % | -4.4 % | ||
3.1 % | 55.0 % | Seller | 4.6 % | -48.4 % | -4.6 % | ||
-1.1 % | 66.7 % | Seller | 12.3 % | -18.5 % | -6.6 % | ||
3.8 % | 30.2 % | Neutral | -3.4 % | -51.5 % | -11.4 % | ||
-3.9 % | 31.3 % | Neutral | 11.1 % | 11.7 % | -5.2 % | ||
-1.9 % | 29.8 % | Neutral | 21.5 % | 18.7 % | -2.8 % | ||
0.0 % | 32.8 % | Seller | 27.9 % | -18.4 % | -8.9 % | ||
2.6 % | 32.0 % | Neutral | 5.9 % | -39.4 % | -7.5 % | ||
-4.6 % | 46.7 % | Buyer | 5.7 % | 1.7 % | -12.4 % | ||
-2.9 % | 30.6 % | Buyer | 12.9 % | 4.0 % | -7.7 % | ||
1.6 % | 43.8 % | Seller | 17.2 % | -30.3 % | 2.7 % | ||
-3.1 % | 33.1 % | Neutral | 11.6 % | -2.0 % | -6.2 % | ||
-2.8 % | 56.1 % | Strong seller | 2.4 % | -6.2 % | -5.8 % | ||
-2.1 % | 45.0 % | Seller | 6.7 % | -21.6 % | -11.7 % | ||
3.5 % | 26.0 % | Buyer | 15.3 % | -25.5 % | -2.5 % | ||
-1.3 % | 46.6 % | Buyer | 24.0 % | -4.6 % | -4.9 % | ||
1.7 % | 29.8 % | Seller | 6.3 % | -22.7 % | -2.3 % | ||
-2.5 % | 57.2 % | Neutral | 10.4 % | -25.2 % | -5.2 % | ||
-5.6 % | 35.5 % | Buyer | 12.0 % | 23.1 % | -18.3 % | ||
-3.1 % | 36.6 % | Neutral | 13.6 % | 18.0 % | -0.1 % | ||
1.0 % | 29.3 % | Neutral | 20.9 % | -33.5 % | -2.4 % | ||
2.5 % | 25.8 % | Neutral | 9.8 % | -42.7 % | -5.8 % | ||
-4.3 % | 36.3 % | Neutral | 9.3 % | 28.1 % | -7.1 % | ||
-0.7 % | 31.6 % | Buyer | 17.9 % | 28.4 % | -8.4 % | ||
-2.7 % | 29.0 % | Buyer | 12.1 % | 36.7 % | -2.5 % | ||
-1.1 % | 39.1 % | Neutral | 13.5 % | -14.0 % | -3.1 % | ||
-2.4 % | 41.1 % | Seller | 2.0 % | -25.1 % | -14.5 % | ||
1.5 % | 22.5 % | Buyer | 6.0 % | -29.3 % | -5.7 % | ||
3.0 % | 28.6 % | NA | 14.8 % | -19.3 % | 0.2 % | ||
-6.0 % | 34.5 % | Buyer | 8.1 % | 48.1 % | -10.6 % | ||
-2.1 % | 36.3 % | Neutral | 21.9 % | -1.7 % | -14.8 % | ||
2.7 % | 29.3 % | Neutral | 11.3 % | -26.6 % | 1.3 % | ||
1.4 % | 30.1 % | Buyer | 18.0 % | -10.9 % | -2.4 % | ||
1.5 % | 27.0 % | Buyer | 18.4 % | -0.3 % | -2.5 % | ||
4.6 % | 28.2 % | Neutral | 7.5 % | -49.1 % | -5.4 % | ||
-1.3 % | 62.5 % | Strong seller | 7.4 % | -26.7 % | -10.7 % | ||
-0.4 % | 34.9 % | Buyer | 18.2 % | 8.3 % | -4.5 % | ||
1.8 % | 32.8 % | Neutral | 14.1 % | -35.1 % | -0.8 % | ||
2.4 % | 45.7 % | Seller | 10.6 % | -54.9 % | -5.4 % | ||
-3.2 % | 32.5 % | Buyer | 2.1 % | 16.0 % | -13.6 % | ||
4.5 % | 34.7 % | Buyer | 4.1 % | -25.7 % | -5.1 % | ||
1.0 % | 26.8 % | Neutral | 11.5 % | 11.4 % | 1.0 % | ||
-2.7 % | 30.5 % | Neutral | 37.6 % | 20.2 % | 3.8 % | ||
-0.5 % | 27.8 % | Buyer | 12.4 % | 11.9 % | 1.3 % | ||
1.6 % | 33.2 % | Seller | 9.7 % | -34.2 % | -7.1 % | ||
2.9 % | 27.0 % | Buyer | 19.4 % | -15.1 % | 4.3 % | ||
0.7 % | 36.0 % | Buyer | 2.6 % | 64.2 % | 6.5 % | ||
1.9 % | 37.6 % | Neutral | 23.2 % | 5.0 % | 4.3 % | ||
4.6 % | 33.3 % | Strong seller | 8.7 % | -63.0 % | 0.1 % | ||
3.9 % | 26.7 % | Seller | 11.3 % | -39.1 % | -1.9 % | ||
0.6 % | 24.2 % | Buyer | 13.0 % | -1.1 % | -1.1 % |
*Table ordered by market size
1 The Zillow market report is a monthly overview of the national and local real estate markets. The report is compiled by Zillow Research. For more information, visit zillow.com/research.
2 This press release includes forward-looking statements about future housing market conditions, mortgage rates and other economic factors. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to change. Actual outcomes may differ materially due to changes in economic and market conditions. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this release, and Zillow Group undertakes no obligation to update them.
About Zillow Group:
Zillow Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: Z and ZG) is reimagining real estate to make home a reality for more and more people. As the most visited real estate app and website in
Zillow Group's affiliates, subsidiaries and brands include Zillow®, Zillow Premier Agent®, Zillow Home Loans℠, Zillow Rentals®, Trulia®, Out East®, StreetEasy®, HotPads®, ShowingTime+℠, Spruce®, and Follow Up Boss®.
All marks herein are owned by MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow affiliate. Zillow Home Loans, LLC is an Equal Housing Lender, NMLS #10287 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). © 2025 MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow affiliate.
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SOURCE Zillow
FAQ
Why did Zillow report new listings for Z fall nearly 30% in November 2025?
How did Zillow quantify affordability for home buyers in November 2025 (Z)?
What did Zillow (Z) say about home value growth in 2025?
How much did price cuts on listings change between October and November 2025 according to Zillow (Z)?
What short-term outlook did Zillow give for mortgage rates and the housing market into 2026?
