Weight loss, liver fat cuts headline Altimmune’s positive IMPACT topline data
Rhea-AI Filing Summary
Altimmune (Nasdaq: ALT) filed an 8-K reporting positive topline data from the IMPACT Phase 2b trial of pemvidutide in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH).
- MASH resolution without fibrosis worsening reached 59.1% (1.2 mg) and 52.1% (1.8 mg) vs 19.1% placebo (p<0.0001).
- Histologic fibrosis improvement (31.8%/34.5% vs 25.9% placebo) was not significant, but AI analysis showed ≥60% fibrosis reduction in 30.6% at 1.8 mg vs 8.2% placebo (p<0.001).
- Mean weight loss 5.0%/6.2% vs 1.0% placebo (p<0.001); liver fat fell 58.0%/62.8% vs 16.2%.
- Safety: 0–1.2% AE-related discontinuations; no drug-related SAEs.
Slides (Ex 99.2) accompany a call on 26 Jun 2025. Forward-looking statements cite regulatory, trial and funding risks.
Positive
- 59.1%/52.1% MASH resolution vs 19.1% placebo (p<0.0001) demonstrates strong efficacy signal
- Up to 6.2% weight loss and >60% liver-fat reduction at 24 weeks (p<0.001)
- No drug-related SAEs and ≤1.2% treatment discontinuations indicate favorable tolerability
Negative
- Histologic fibrosis improvement not statistically significant, key for regulatory approval
- Only 24-week data; long-term efficacy and safety remain unproven
Insights
TL;DR: Phase 2b hit key MASH endpoint; valuation catalyst despite mixed fibrosis data.
Statistically robust three-fold improvement in MASH resolution, >6% weight loss and a clean safety profile meaningfully de-risk pemvidutide. Although fibrosis significance was missed histologically, converging AI and NIT results imply biological antifibrotic activity that can be explored in Phase 3. The 24-week data suggest dose flexibility and partner appeal, bolstering financing options for pivotal studies. Overall, the program’s risk-reward skews favorably after today’s read-out.
TL;DR: Efficacy promising, but non-significant fibrosis keeps regulatory path uncertain.
The FDA prioritises histologic fibrosis improvement; pemvidutide’s 32–35% rates versus 26% placebo did not clear significance, and composite endpoints were also non-significant. Reliance on AI analytics may not satisfy regulators. Moreover, the 24-week window is shorter than typical 48-week NASH trials, leaving durability and cardiovascular outcomes untested. While safety is encouraging, investors should apply conservative probability-of-success assumptions until pivotal data confirm an antifibrotic effect.