EBA Stress Test Shows BBVA Capital Resilience Through 2027
Rhea-AI Filing Summary
BBVA filed a Form 6-K disclosing results of the 2025 EU-wide EBA stress test covering 2025-2027. The exercise, used for the 2025 Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process, applies a static 31-Dec-24 balance sheet and has no pass/fail threshold.
Baseline scenario: the bank’s fully-loaded CET1 ratio would rise 3.55 pp to 16.43 % by 31-Dec-27.
Adverse scenario: CET1 would fall 2.18 pp to a trough of 10.70 % in 2025, then recover to 11.02 % by 2027, remaining in double-digit territory throughout. No management actions or post-2024 business changes are reflected.
Results indicate BBVA can absorb a severe macro-financial shock while maintaining capital well above typical regulatory minima, supporting dividend capacity and funding flexibility. Investors should watch the forthcoming SREP decision and any updates to capital distribution policy.
Positive
- CET1 rises to 16.43 % in baseline, signalling strong organic capital generation.
- Adverse-case CET1 remains 10.70 %, indicating resilience above likely regulatory minima.
Negative
- 2.18 pp first-year capital hit under adverse scenario shows sensitivity to macro shock.
- Stress test uses static balance sheet, excluding future growth and management actions, limiting visibility.
Insights
TL;DR: Stress test shows BBVA stays >10 % CET1 even in worst case; capital strength viewed positively.
The EBA exercise models a three-year macro shock with static balance sheet assumptions. BBVA’s 10.70 % trough CET1 offers a c.300-400 bp cushion over typical Pillar 1+2R requirements, suggesting ample headroom for dividends or buybacks. Baseline build to 16.43 % highlights organic capital generation. Because the test omits management actions, actual outcomes could be better. I view the disclosure as modestly positive for equity and credit investors.
TL;DR: Capital erosion limited to 2.18 pp; risk profile remains manageable—impact neutral-to-positive.
The limited drawdown underscores balanced geographic mix and risk controls. However, static balance sheet methodology may understate potential loan growth or risk migration. Investors should examine sector exposures once detailed tables are published. Still, no immediate capital shortfall risk emerges.
AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.
FAQ
What was BBVAs CET1 ratio under the baseline scenario?
How low does BBVAs CET1 fall in the adverse scenario?
Does the stress test include management actions or new business plans?
Will the stress-test results affect BBVAs dividends?
Where can investors find the full disclosure tables?
UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE
COMMISSION
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549
FORM 6-K
REPORT OF FOREIGN ISSUER PURSUANT TO RULE 13a-16 OR 15d-16
UNDER THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
For the month of August, 2025
Commission file number: 1-10110
BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A.
(Exact name of Registrant as specified in its charter)
BANK BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A.
(Translation of Registrant’s name into English)
Calle Azul 4,
28050 Madrid
Spain
(Address of principal executive offices)
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant files or will file annual reports under cover of Form 20-F or Form 40-F:
Form 20-F X Form 40-F
Indicate by check mark if the registrant is submitting the Form 6-K in paper as permitted by Regulation S-T Rule 101(b)(1):
Yes No X
Indicate by check mark if the registrant is submitting the Form 6-K in paper as permitted by Regulation S-T Rule 101(b)(7):
Yes No X
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA), in compliance with the Securities Market legislation, hereby communicates the following:
OTHER RELEVANT INFORMATION
BBVA has been subject to the 2025 EU-wide Stress Test conducted by the European Banking Authority (EBA), in cooperation with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB).
The 2025 EU-wide Stress Test does not contain a pass/fail threshold, instead it is designed to be used as an important source of information for the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) in 2025. The results allow competent authorities to assess BBVA’s ability to meet the regulatory capital requirements under stressed scenarios based on common methodological assumptions.
The adverse stress test scenario was set by the ECB and the ESRB covering a three-year time horizon (2025-2027) and the stress test scenario has been carried out applying a static balance sheet assumption as of December 31st, 2024. Therefore the stress test scenario does not take into account business strategies and management actions implemented after the cut-off date.
BBVA’s results are summarized below:
| • | Under the baseline scenario, BBVA’s CET1 fully loaded ratio would increase by 3.55 percentage points from December 31st 2024 (restated under CRR3), reaching a maximum level of 16.43% as of December 31st 2027. |
| • | Under the adverse scenario, BBVA’s CET1 fully loaded ratio would be reduced the first year by 2.18 percentage points from December 31st 2024 (restated under CRR3), reaching a minimum level of 10.70% as of December 31st 2025. BBVA’s fully loaded CET1 ratio recovers over the last two years of the adverse scenario, reaching a level of 11.02% as of 31 December 2027. |
Further information is available on the EBA website (www.eba.europa.eu)
Madrid, August 1st 2025
Note: The stress test exercise information is provided in the accompanying disclosure tables based on the common format provided by the EBA. The EU-stress test exercise and its results are not a forecast of BBVA profits.
This English version is a translation of the original in Spanish for information purposes only. In case of discrepancy, the Spanish original will prevail.
SIGNATURE
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized.
| Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. |
||||||
| Date: August 4, 2025 |
||||||
| By: /s/ Eduardo Ávila Zaragoza |
||||||
|
|
||||||
| Name: Eduardo Ávila Zaragoza |
||||||
| Title: Head of supervisory relations |
||||||