KeyCorp outlines 2026 outlook, eyes ~8% revenue gain
KeyCorp used a conference presentation to give detailed 2026 guidance for revenue, net interest income, loans, margins, and expenses using GAAP and non-GAAP metrics.
Rhea-AI Filing Summary
KeyCorp (KEY) used a Barclays Global Financial Services Conference presentation to outline its 2026 outlook and provide context on recent results. Management expects full-year 2026 revenue to grow by roughly 8% from a 2025 baseline of $7.5 billion on an operating, taxable-equivalent basis, with net interest income projected to rise 9–11% from a $4.7 billion baseline.
The outlook assumes 4Q 2026 net interest margin of 3.00–3.05%, average earning assets up $1–2 billion from 2Q 2026, and 2026 noninterest income growth of 4–5% (or 6–7% on an adjusted basis). Adjusted noninterest expense is expected to increase about 4% from a $4.7 billion 2025 baseline. Average loans are guided to grow 4–5% from a $105.7 billion 2025 average, including 8–10% growth in average commercial loans from a $74.5 billion baseline. Guidance incorporates a GAAP tax rate of about 22% and a tax-equivalent effective rate near 23%, and is presented using several non-GAAP measures with reconciliations described in the presentation.
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Filing Explained
The filing updates the information record, not KeyCorp’s finances: its 2026 targets remain forecasts, with some non-GAAP reconciliations unavailable.
This Form 8-K reports a conference presentation of KeyCorp’s performance, strategy, and 2026 outlook. The disclosed event is informational: it does not report a completed operating, financing, ownership, or balance-sheet change.
The filing identifies the outlook as forward-looking, and several measures—including revenue, net interest income, and adjusted expense—are forward-looking non-GAAP measures rather than completed reported results.
KeyCorp says it cannot provide reconciliations for the forward-looking non-GAAP measures without unreasonable effort because forecasting the required amounts is complex; the presentation also says actual results may differ materially.
The 8-K states that its Item 7.01 disclosure and attached presentation are not deemed “filed” for Section 18 purposes and are not incorporated by reference into KeyCorp’s other filings.
Any change in these expectations must be assessed through subsequent SEC filings or reported results; this presentation says KeyCorp has no obligation to update the forward-looking statements.
8-K Event Classification
2 items: 7.01, 9.01
2 items
Item 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure
Disclosure
Material non-public information disclosed under Regulation Fair Disclosure, often investor presentations or guidance.
Item 9.01
Financial Statements and Exhibits
Exhibits
Financial statements, pro forma financial information, or exhibit attachments filed with this report.
Key Figures
2025 Revenue Baseline: $7.513 billion
2026 Revenue Growth Outlook: ~8%
2025 Net Interest Income Baseline: $4.671 billion
+5 more
8 metrics
2025 Revenue Baseline
$7.513 billion
Full-year 2025 revenue baseline for 2026 guidance, operating basis
2026 Revenue Growth Outlook
~8%
Expected increase in 2026 revenue vs. 2025 baseline of $7.513 billion
2025 Net Interest Income Baseline
$4.671 billion
Full-year 2025 NII baseline, taxable-equivalent basis
2026 Net Interest Income Growth Outlook
9–11%
Expected 2026 NII growth vs. $4.671 billion 2025 baseline
4Q 2026 Net Interest Margin Exit Rate
3.00–3.05%
Projected taxable-equivalent net interest margin at 4Q 2026 exit
Average Loans Baseline 2025
$105.7 billion
2025 average loans used as baseline for 2026 growth outlook
2026 Average Loans Growth Outlook
4–5%
Expected 2026 growth in average loans vs. $105.7 billion baseline
GAAP Tax Rate Assumption 2026
22%
Estimated GAAP tax rate embedded in 2026 outlook
Key Terms
non-GAAP, taxable equivalent basis, net interest margin, FDIC special assessment, +1 more
5 terms
non-GAAP financial
"This presentation contains GAAP financial measures and non-GAAP financial measures"
Non-GAAP refers to financial measures that companies use to show their earnings or performance without including certain expenses or income that are often added back to give a different picture. It matters because it can make a company's results look better or more favorable, but it may also hide important costs, so investors need to look at both GAAP (official rules) and non-GAAP numbers to get a full understanding.
taxable equivalent basis financial
"Taxable Equivalent. Income from tax-exempt earning assets is increased"
A taxable equivalent basis converts a tax-free investment’s return into the pretax return you would need from a taxable investment to be equally attractive, using your marginal tax rate. Investors use it to compare yields on different securities—for example municipal bonds versus corporate bonds—by putting them on the same footing, like converting prices into the same currency so you can tell which is truly the better deal.
net interest margin financial
"Net interest margin(2) 4Q exit rate: 3.00 – 3.05%"
Net interest margin measures how much a bank earns from lending and investing compared with what it pays for funding, expressed as a percentage of its interest-earning assets. Think of it like a grocery store’s markup: it shows the gap between buying cost and selling price per dollar of goods — here, the cost is interest paid and the sale is interest received. Investors watch it because a higher margin usually means a bank is more profitable and better at managing interest rate and credit conditions.
FDIC special assessment financial
"FDIC special assessment (other expense)(3) 21 16 0.01"
A FDIC special assessment is a one-time or temporary charge the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation can levy on insured banks to replenish the fund that protects depositors after unexpected losses. Think of it as an emergency invoice that raises a bank’s costs, which can reduce profits, eat into capital used for lending, and therefore matter to investors watching bank earnings, dividend capacity, and share price.
forward-looking statements regulatory
"This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning"
Forward-looking statements are predictions or plans that companies share about what they expect to happen in the future, like estimating sales or profits. They matter because they help investors understand a company's outlook, but since they are based on guesses and assumptions, they can sometimes be wrong.
FAQ
AI-generated questions and answers. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.
What 2026 revenue growth is KeyCorp (KEY) guiding to versus 2025?
KeyCorp expects 2026 revenue on an operating, taxable-equivalent basis to be up about 8% from its 2025 baseline of $7.513 billion, according to the conference presentation outlook.
How much net interest income growth is KeyCorp (KEY) targeting for 2026?
For 2026, KeyCorp projects net interest income growth of 9–11% from a 2025 baseline of $4.671 billion on a taxable-equivalent basis, supported by modest earning-asset growth and a projected 4Q 2026 NIM of 3.00–3.05%.
What are KeyCorp’s (KEY) 2026 expectations for noninterest income and expenses?
KeyCorp expects 2026 noninterest income to grow 4–5% from a $2.842 billion 2025 baseline, or 6–7% from an adjusted $2.495 billion baseline. Adjusted noninterest expense is projected to rise about 4% from a $4.729 billion 2025 baseline.
What loan growth is KeyCorp (KEY) guiding for 2026?
KeyCorp’s 2026 outlook calls for average loans to increase 4–5% from a $105.7 billion 2025 average, with average commercial loans expected to grow 8–10% from a $74.5 billion 2025 baseline.
What net interest margin is KeyCorp (KEY) expecting exiting 4Q 2026?
KeyCorp’s outlook indicates a 4Q 2026 net interest margin exit rate of 3.00–3.05% on a taxable-equivalent basis, along with projected growth in average earning assets of $1–2 billion from second-quarter 2026 levels.
What tax rates are included in KeyCorp’s (KEY) 2026 guidance?
The 2026 outlook assumes a GAAP tax rate of about 22% and a tax-equivalent effective rate of roughly 23%, which underpin several taxable-equivalent and earnings-per-share-equivalent metrics in the presentation.
AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.
UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 8-K
CURRENT REPORT
Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 | ||
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): September 14, 2026
(Exact name of registrant as specified in charter)
| State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization: | Commission File Number | I.R.S. Employer Identification Number: | ||||||||||||
| Address of principal executive offices: | Zip Code: | |||||||||||||
(216 ) 689-3000
Registrant’s telephone number, including area code:
| Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below): | |||||
| Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) | |||||
| Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) | |||||
| Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) | |||||
| Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c)) | |||||
Securities Registered Pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:
| Title of each class | Trading Symbol(s) | Name of each exchange on which registered | ||||||
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).
Emerging growth company ☐
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐
Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure.
KeyCorp will review its performance, strategy, and outlook at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference on Monday, September 14, 2026. A copy of the slides forming the basis of the presentation is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and has been posted on KeyCorp’s website (www.key.com/ir) in connection with the conference. A live audio webcast will also be available on the day of the conference at www.key.com/ir. A recording will also be available at www.key.com/ir after the event.
The information in this Item 7.01 and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into the filings of KeyCorp under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The content of the KeyCorp website referenced herein and in the exhibit are not incorporated into this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.
(d) Exhibits.
| Exhibit No. | Description of Exhibit | |||||||
| 99.1 | KeyCorp Presentation Slides, Barclays Global Financial Services Conference. | |||||||
| 104 | Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within Inline XBRL document | |||||||
| SIGNATURE | ||||||||
| Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. | ||||||||
| KEYCORP | ||||||||
| Date: September 14, 2026 | /s/ Andrea R. McCarthy | |||||||
| By: Andrea R. McCarthy | ||||||||
| Title: Assistant Secretary | ||||||||
KeyCorp Barclays Global Financial Services Conference September 14, 2026 Clark Khayat Chief Financial Officer
$ in millions, unless otherwise stated FY2026 (vs. FY2025) On an operating basis Revenue(1),(2) (FY25 baseline: $7,513) up ~8% (previously up 7 – 8%) Net interest income(1),(2) (FY25 baseline: $4,671) up 9 – 11% Net interest margin(2) 4Q exit rate: 3.00 – 3.05% Average earning assets growing $1Bn – $2Bn from 2Q26 Noninterest income (FY25 baseline: $2,842) up 4 – 5% (previously up 3 – 4%) Noninterest income on an adjusted basis(1) (FY25 baseline: $2,495)(3) up 6 – 7%(3) (previously up 5 – 6%) Adjusted noninterest expense(1) (FY25 baseline: $4,729)(4) up ~4% (previously up 3 – 4%) Average loans (FY25 baseline: $105.7Bn) up 4 – 5% Average commercial loans (FY25 baseline: $74.5Bn) up 8 – 10% NCOs to average loans 40 – 45 bps Tax rate GAAP tax rate: ~22% Tax-equivalent effective rate(5): ~23% 16 – 19% ROTCE 9.5 – 10% Marked CET1 3.25%+ / 15%+ NIM and ROTCE (1) Represents a forward-looking non-GAAP measure: refer to slide 4, "Forward-Looking Statements and Additional Information", for more information; (2) Taxable equivalent basis; (3) Excluding Commercial mortgage servicing fees, Operating lease income, Other leasing gains, Other income and net securities gains (losses); (4) Non-GAAP measure: adjusted noninterest expense for 2025 excludes a $26MM benefit from the FDIC special assessment. See slide 3 for breakout of "Selected Items Impact on Earnings"; (5) Reflects the estimated full year taxable-equivalent adjustment 2026 Outlook Long-Term Targets(1) 4Q27 Targets(1) 2
(1) Favorable (unfavorable) impact; (2) Impact to EPS reflected on a fully diluted basis; (3) In November 2023, the FDIC issued a final rule implementing a special assessment on insured depository institutions to recover the loss to the FDIC’s deposit insurance fund (DIF) associated with protecting uninsured depositors following the 2023 closures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. KeyCorp recorded the initial loss estimate related to the special assessment during the fourth quarter of 2023. Amounts reflected in this table represent adjustments from initial estimates based on quarterly invoices received from the FDIC; (4) Earnings per share may not foot due to rounding Selected Items Impact on Earnings $ in millions, except per share amounts After-tax at marginal rate(1) Quarter-to-date results Pretax(1) Amount Net Income EPS(2)(4) Three months ended June 30, 2026 No items $ — $ — $ — Three months ended March 31, 2026 No items — — — Three months ended December 31, 2025 FDIC special assessment (other expense)(3) 21 16 0.01 Three months ended September 30, 2025 FDIC special assessment (other expense)(3) 5 4 — Three months ended June 30, 2025 No items — — — Year-to-date results Six months ended June 30, 2026 No items $ — $ — $ — Six months ended June 30, 2025 No items — — — Selected Items Impact on Earnings 3
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 including, but not limited to, KeyCorp’s expectations or predictions of future financial or business performance or conditions. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words such as “believe,” “seek,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “target,” “estimate,” “continue,” “positions,” “plan,” “predict,” “project,” “forecast,” “guidance,” “goal,” “objective,” “prospects,” “possible,” “potential,” “strategy,” “opportunities,” or “trends,” by future conditional verbs such as “assume,” “will,” “would,” “should,” “could” or “may”, or by variations of such words or by similar expressions. These forward-looking statements are based on assumptions that involve risks and uncertainties, which are subject to change based on various important factors (some of which are beyond KeyCorp’s control). Actual results may differ materially from current projections. Actual outcomes may differ materially from those expressed or implied as a result of the factors described under “Forward-looking Statements” and “Risk Factors” in KeyCorp’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, and in subsequent filings of KeyCorp with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). Such forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after that date or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. For additional information regarding KeyCorp, please refer to our SEC filings available at www.key.com/ir. Non-GAAP Measures. This presentation contains GAAP financial measures and non-GAAP financial measures where management believes it to be helpful in understanding Key’s results of operations or financial position. Where non-GAAP financial measures are used, the comparable GAAP financial measure, as well as the reconciliation to the comparable GAAP financial measure, can be found in this presentation. Forward-Looking Non-GAAP Measures. From time to time we may discuss forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures. We are unable to provide a reconciliation of forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures because we are unable to provide, without unreasonable effort, a meaningful or accurate calculation or estimation of amounts that would be necessary for the reconciliation due to the complexity and inherent difficulty in forecasting and quantifying future amounts or when they may occur. Such unavailable information could be significant for future results. Annualized Data. Certain returns, yields, performance ratios, or quarterly growth rates are presented on an “annualized” basis. This is done for analytical and decision-making purposes to better discern underlying performance trends when compared to full-year or year-over-year amounts. Taxable Equivalent. Income from tax-exempt earning assets is increased by an amount equivalent to the taxes that would have been paid if this income had been taxable at the federal statutory rate. This adjustment puts all earning assets, most notably tax-exempt municipal securities, and certain lease assets, on a common basis that facilitates comparison of results to results of peers. Earnings Per Share Equivalent. Certain income or expense items may be expressed on a per common share basis. This is done for analytical and decision-making purposes to better discern underlying trends in total consolidated earnings per share performance excluding the impact of such items. When the impact of certain income or expense items is disclosed separately, the after-tax amount is computed using the marginal tax rate, unless otherwise specified, with this then being the amount used to calculate the earnings per share equivalent. GAAP: Generally Accepted Accounting Principles Forward-looking Statements and Additional Information 4