Murphy USA (MUSA) maps 2026–2030 growth, EBITDA targets and capex plans

Rhea-AI Filing Summary

Murphy USA Inc. filed a current report to share an investor presentation for the Raymond James 2026 Institutional Investors Conference, outlining its growth strategy and updated outlook. The company highlights an organic expansion plan with 45 to 55 new stores and up to 30 raze-and-rebuilds in 2026, supported by technology-driven efficiency initiatives and a focus on merchandise mix evolution, especially nicotine and food and beverage.

The materials show historical adjusted EBITDA rising from $422.6M in 2019 to $1.02B in 2025, alongside significant share count reduction since the 2013 spin. For 2026–2030, base-case adjusted EBITDA targets range from $1.00B to $1.12B, with guidance for 2026 merchandise contribution of $890M–$900M and capital expenditures of $475M–$525M. Management frames these plans within a long-term strategic framework centered on organic growth, cost leadership, and disciplined capital allocation.

Insights

Equity valuation and strategy analyst

Murphy USA lays out a multi‑year organic growth and EBITDA roadmap.

The presentation details a long-term plan built around new store growth, larger formats, and merchandise mix shifts. Adjusted EBITDA increased from $422.6M in 2019 to $1.02B in 2025, while shares outstanding declined meaningfully since the 2013 spin, emphasizing capital returns.

For 2026–2030, base-case adjusted EBITDA targets rise from $1.00B to $1.12B, with assumptions of ~3% annual volume growth, modest all-in margin improvement, and 2–3% annual G&A growth. 2026 guidance includes $890M–$900M in merchandise contribution and $475M–$525M in capital expenditures, reflecting continued investment in new stores and remodels.

The strategic framework remains consistent with five core strategies focused on organic expansion, cost leadership, and leveraging fuel market volatility. Actual outcomes will depend on factors the company lists as risks, including fuel prices, competitive intrusion, regulatory conditions, and execution on store performance, technology initiatives, and merchandise diversification over the 2026–2030 period.

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UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE

SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

Date of report (Date of earliest event reported): March 2, 2026

MURPHY USA INC.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Delaware						001-35914			46-2279221
(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)						(Commission File Number)			(IRS Employer Identification No.)
200 Peach Street
El Dorado,			Arkansas						71730-5836
(Address of principal executive offices)									(Zip Code)

(870) 875-7600

(Registrant's telephone number, including area code)

Not Applicable

(Former Name or Former Address, if Changed Since Last Report)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class			Trading symbol(s)			Name of each exchange on which registered
Common Stock, $0.01 Par Value			MUSA			New York Stock Exchange

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§ 230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).

☐ Emerging growth company

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 7.01.   Regulation FD Disclosure

On March 2, 2026, representatives of Murphy USA Inc. (the "Company") will make a presentation at the Raymond James 2026 Institutional Investors Conference. A copy of the presentation material is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated by reference into this Item 7.01 and is available on the Company's website at https://ir.corporate.murphyusa.com.

The information included in this Item 7.01 of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.

Item 9.01.  Financial Statements and Exhibits

(d) Exhibits

 

						Exhibit Index
Exhibit Number						Description
99.1*						March 2026 Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference Presentation
104						Cover Page Interactive Data File - the cover page interactive data file does not appear in the Interactive Data File because its XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document

*Furnished herewith

Signature

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

 

						MURPHY USA INC.
Date:			March 2, 2026			By:  /s/  Donald R. Smith, Jr.
						Donald R. Smith, Jr.
						Vice President, Interim Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Murphy USA Inc. 1 Murphy USA Investor Deck Raymond James Institutional Investor Conference March 2026

Murphy USA Inc. 2 Cautionary statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements. These statements, which express management’s current views concerning future events or results, are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in our forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, the volatility and level of crude oil and gasoline prices, the pace and success of our expansion plan, our relationship with Walmart, political and regulatory uncertainty, our ability to realize projected synergies from the acquisition of QuickChek and successfully expand our food and beverage offerings, uncontrollable natural hazards, and adverse market conditions or tax consequences, among other things. For further discussion of risk factors, see “Risk Factors” in the Murphy USA registration statement on our latest form 10-Q and 10-K. Murphy USA undertakes no duty to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. The Murphy USA financial information in this presentation is derived from the audited and unaudited consolidated financial statements of Murphy USA, Inc. for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019. Please reference our most recent 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings for the latest information. If this presentation contains non-GAAP financial measures, we have provided a reconciliation of such non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable measures prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP in the Appendix to this presentation. Christian Pikul, CFA Vice President of Investor Relations and FP&A Christian.pikul@murphyusa.com

Murphy USA Inc. 3 Advantaged in a Large Market with Endless Trip Missions Source: 2026 NACS/NIQ TDLinx Convenience Industry Store Count; PDI Technologies: 2025 Pulse of Convenience Industry Facts Large Market • 152K Convenience Stores in the U.S. • 160 Million Transactions per Day • 35% of all Brick-and-Mortar Retail Sales Long Tail • Industry remains highly fragmented and difficult to consolidate • 63% of c-stores are independent smaller operators Loyal Consumers • 67% of US Shoppers visit a c-store at least once a week (38% visit 2 or more per week) • 43% of Americans live within 1 mile of a c-store U.S. Convenience Store Count as of December 31, 2025

Murphy USA Inc. 4 We are Murphy USA 1,800+ Locations Nearly 2.0M Customers per Day 27 States Repeatable High-Return Organic Growth Model Durable EDLP / EDLC Economics Value Proposition for Long- Term investors • Store base is transforming • New Stores are performing • We are accelerating our new store program • Merch growth is fueled by expanding assortment and NTIs • Technology investments are driving productivity improvements • Fuel performance is resilient in the current environment • Our growth profile is ramping, which will jumpstart EBITDA • We are improving store performance and productivity • Share repurchase remains a driver of value creation

Murphy USA Inc. 5 Resilient and Proven Strategic Framework The Strategies that have served us well since 2013 will continue to do so in the future Strategy 1: Grow Organically Strategy 2: Diversify Merchandise Mix Strategy 3: Sustain Cost Leadership Position Strategy 4: Create Advantage from Market Volatility Strategy 5: Invest for the Long Term • Organic growth remains our primary driver of value creation • New stores are delivering strong performance • We are continuing to accelerate our new store program • Optimize promotional opportunities across the store • Capture market share in fast growing nicotine segments • Enhance food and beverage opportunity • New and bigger stores are driving higher operating expense • Invest in the store; Simplify the store • Scale G&A as network grows • Compete to win in our growing markets • Leverage our supply function • Invest in markets with long-term growth potential • Invest free cash flow to enhance long-term shareholder returns • Invest in people, technology, capabilities

Murphy USA Inc. 6 Building High-Performing New Stores Source: MUSA Data Warehouse; Store OpEx excludes Rent and Payment Fees Newest build classes continue to be accretive to chain comparisons Murphy USA NTI Performance 2021-23 MUSA Only Build Classes, 2025 APSM $41K $45K Merchandise Contribution $36K $38K Store OpEx $48K $54K Adjusted EBITDA $66K $76K Fuel Contribution Chain Average 2021-2023 (74 New Stores) 2025 ROIC by MUSA Build Class Unlevered/After-Tax ROIC 2021 2022 2023 2024 16% 15% 12% 7% Driving returns above business case expectations “Fully Ramped” Year 3 of Ramp Year 2 of Ramp Fuel Volume by MUSA Build Class 000s, APSM, 6-month moving average Year 1 of Ramp NTIs ramp to above network performance 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 100K 200K 300K 400K Fu el V ol um e (0 00 s) 2021 Class 2022 Class 2023 Class 2024 Class Same Store FYE25

Murphy USA Inc. 7 New Formats Expanding Network Impact (1) Kiosk square footage includes walk-up super-cooler and outdoor selling space; Assumes 50 NTIs/year and 30 Raze and Rebuilds Source: MUSA Data Warehouse; 18% 51% 31% 2020 7% 32% 29% 32% 2025 4% 30% 22% 44% 2030E 1.2M 2.5M 3.4M +111% +34% Kiosk(1) MUSA 1400 QuickChek MUSA 2800 Store Count: 1,800 ~2,050 Murphy USA Square Footage Shift 5-Year Comparisons by Store Format 1,505

Murphy USA Inc. 8 Cost-Neutral Refresh Elevates Customer Experience Modern Branding – Same EDLP Offer Refreshed Store Design Opening 2H 2026 Bright and attractive new color scheme Cleaner, modern look inside and outside the store Enhanced internal and external lighting and signage

Murphy USA Inc. 9 Merchandise Mix Evolving with Demand Source: MUSA Data Warehouse; MUSA Cigarette SOM data built off markets in which MUSA operates Complement Nicotine Growth with New Stores • Driving mix shift to non-nicotine through new stores • Meeting customers’ expectations: Price, Value, Quality, Experience • Re-focusing on core QC Food & Beverage offer Maximize Promotional Value & Customer Engagement • Leverage best-in-class loyalty platforms to provide value for our customers • Utilize promotional engine to bring the right offer to the right customer • Increase share of wallet from existing customers while attracting new customers 2025 SS Merch Margin by Category by Format $K APSM, Full Year 2025 73% Kiosk 56% Small (1,400s) 36% Large (2,800) 14% QC (4,500+) $27.5K $38.0K $47.0K $131.3K F&B Non-Nicotine Nicotine Saved our customers over $500M in 2025! Strengthen Leadership in Nicotine Categories • Investment focused on Nicotine as a core traffic-driving category • Industry-leading share of combustible products in our markets • Uniquely positioned to grow alternative nicotine market share Cigarette Share of Market Nicotine Pouch Share of Market 16% 20% 9% +25% 2019 2025 Murphy USA Nicotine SOM 2019 vs 2025 Quarterly Average

Murphy USA Inc. 10 OpEx Growth Driven by New and Bigger Stores 2024 2.2% Same Store 3.6% New & Bigger Stores 2025 $721M $763M +5.8% 2025 Total Store Operating Expense Growth APSM OpEx 2024 2025 Change $35.0K $36.1K 3.1% Source: MUSA Data Warehouse; Total Store Operating Expense includes all store expenses except for payment fees, allocated G&A, and rent

Murphy USA Inc. 11 Balancing Efficiency and Effectiveness Driving Incremental Efficiencies through Technology Investments Simplify Store Operations • Driving accountability in achieving impactful goals • Store Labor Model Refresh • Shrink Task Force Invest in Store Maintenance • Proactive lifecycle management • Expanding Self-Maintenance Abilities • Focus on revenue generating assets Home Office Cost Leadership • Home Office Restructuring • Scaling G&A with store growth • Relentless low-cost focus

Murphy USA Inc. 12 Fuel Performance Strong Despite Low Volatility and Prices Source: EIA – Weekly US Gulf Coast Conventional Gasoline Regular Spot Price; Gallon Source: MUSA Data Warehouse; Federal Highway Administration Motor Fuel Sales; OPIS Data comparison includes only states where available; Differential to market based on average market pricing within 20 miles of MUSA stores 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Gulf Coast Conventional Gasoline Spot Price Price per Gallon by Week since January 2019 Grew Volume +28M gallons in 2025 Despite the environment, we still… Held Margins Flat Retail CPG YoY (while investing in price) Optimized Profits Fuel initiatives This is what a “low-volatility” environment looks like

Murphy USA Inc. 13 Low Fuel Prices Reduce Price-Seeking Behavior Relative Impact of Price Changes Price Point Elasticity Model: MUSA APSM Volume Change relative to Current Levels, 2015-2025 How Fuel Prices Shape Consumer Decisions • Price is a top priority, but convenience often wins • Many consumers prioritize lower prices, but most choose a nearby or convenient station in a lower price environment • There is a clear relationship between the importance of retail price, and the number of outlets customers visit • When retail prices decline the number of outlets a customer visits increases; indicating a shift towards convenience • MDR data shows a similar dynamic; new member signups increase when price increases and then taper off slowly as prices soften Source: MUSA Data Warehouse; Murphy Drive Rewards; GasBuddy Average Retail Fu el V ol um e C ha ng e Under $2.00 $2.00 to $2.20 $2.20 to $2.40 $2.40 to $2.60 $2.60 to $2.80 $2.80 to $3.00 $3.00 to $3.20 $3.20 to $3.40 Over $3.40

Murphy USA Inc. 14 Competitors Increasing Their Presence Relevant Competitive Entry in MUSA States Year over Year Store Count Change of Major Convenience Stores(1) (1) Major Convenience Stores includes # of Chain Stores opening within 3 Miles of a Murphy USA, 2025 vs. 2024 Source: OPIS Data Competitive Intrusion: ~600 Stores opened within 3 Miles since 2020 20-5

Murphy USA Inc. 15 Predictable Patterns in Market Evolution Emerging Phase • Market expands with new capacity and customer options • Competition intensifies, driven by aggressive price-based share battles • Margins compress as fuel competition and customer switching accelerate Stabilizing Phase • Volumes normalize as post-entry disruption settles • Competitive intensity eases, with more disciplined pricing • Margins recover toward sustainable breakeven levels Maturing Phase • Volumes steady with predictable customer patterns • Margins stabilize under established competitive norms • New entry has limited impact, mostly localized Markets in Motion The Ebbs and Flows of Markets: Tracking market evolution over time

Murphy USA Inc. 16 Emerging Phase Stabilizing Phase Maturing Phase Markets in Motion The Impact of Markets Evolution by Phase -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 # of Years Since Competitive Intrusion % C ha ng e vs . Ye ar P rio r t o C om pe tit iv e En tr y MUSA Fuel Volume MUSA Fuel Contribution C-Store Foot Traffic Market Evolution Amplifies Scale-Driven Value Source: MUSA Financial Book; Murphy USA Store Performance in Select Texas Market; Placer.ai

Murphy USA Inc. 17 Supply Assets Support a High-Volume Operating Model Ratability Low Cost Su st ai na bi lit y Proprietary Positions & Contracts Diesel Price Signs Pipeline Positions Network Optimization Wholesale Capabilities Logistics Capabilities Terminals (Owned & 3rd Party)

Murphy USA Inc. 18 Growth and Returns Create Shareholder Value Since Spin $423 $723 $828 $1,191 $1,059 $1,007 $1,019 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Adjusted EBITDA By Year, In Millions Shares Outstanding By Year, In Millions 46.8 30.5 27.2 24.9 21.7 20.8 20.0 18.8 2013 Spin 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -60% Source: MUSA Financial Book

Murphy USA Inc. 19 Build, Optimize and Innovate to Drive Future Value Base Growth Drivers Grow Organically Diversify Merch Mix Sustain Cost Leadership Position Create Advantage from Market Volatility Invest for the Long Term Targeting 2.5-3.5% new stores per year 3.5% annual per Store OpEx growth Continually investing in our new and existing store networks 2026 $1.03 2027 $1.06 2028 $1.09 2029 $1.12 2030 $1.00 $1.08 $1.15 $1.23 $1.00 $1.29+7% Base (SS+NTIs) Upside MUSA EBITDA Contribution $ in Billions Base All-in CPG 30.5 30.8 31.2 31.5 31.9 ~4% annual margin growth 2-3% annual G&A growth Total Volumes up ~3% annually Modest CPG improvement over time; PS&W flat at 2.4 cpg Investing free cash flow to enhance long-term shareholder returns Upside All-in CPG 30.5 31.5 32.6 33.6 34.3 +3%

Murphy USA Inc. 20 Our ABC’s Drive Our Core Strategies The Strategies that have served us well since 2013 will continue to do so in the future Strategy 1: Grow Organically Strategy 2: Diversify Merchandise Mix Strategy 3: Sustain Cost Leadership Position Strategy 4: Create Advantage from Market Volatility Strategy 5: Invest for the Long Term The ABC’s of Our Success:

Murphy USA Inc. 21 Appendix

Murphy USA Inc. 22 2026 Guidance 22 Guidance Metrics 2025 Updated Guidance Range 2025 Actual Results 2026 Guidance Range Organic Growth New Stores 45 or more 51 45 to 55 Raze and Rebuilds 23 to 24 23 Up to 30 Fuel Contribution Retail fuel volume per store (K gallons APSM) 235 to 237 236 233 to 237 New: Retail fuel volume per store (SS YoY%) - (2.6)% (3.0)% to (1.0)% Store Profitability Merchandise contribution ($ Millions) $870 to $875 $869 $890 to $900 Retail station OpEx excluding credit cards and rent expense ($K, APSM) $36.2 to $36.6 $36.1 $37.0 to $38.0 Corporate Costs SG&A ($ Millions per year) $230 to $240 $232 $240 to $250 Effective Tax Rate 23.5% to 24.5% 22.8% 23% to 25% Capital Allocation Capital expenditures ($ Millions) $450 to $500 $432 $475 to $525

Murphy USA Inc. 23 Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation Full-Year 2019 to 2025 – GAAP to non-GAAP Reconciliation EBITDA figures used on slide 18 of this presentation (Millions of dollars) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Net Income 154.8$ 386.1$ 396.9$ 672.9$ 556.8$ 502.5$ 470.6$ Income taxes 47.6 123.0 125.0 210.9 177.6 149.1 138.6 Interest expense, net of interest income 51.7 50.2 82.3 82.3 91.6 90.7 110.7 Depreciation and amortization 152.2 161.0 212.6 220.4 228.7 248.0 276.8 EBITDA 406.3$ 720.3$ 816.8$ 1,186.5$ 1,054.7$ 990.3$ 996.7$ Net settlement proceeds (0.1) - - - - - - Impairment of properties - - - - - 8.2 5.3 Restructuring Expense 12.6 Accretion of asset retirement obligations 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.4 (Gain) loss on sale of assets (0.1) (1.3) (1.5) (2.1) 0.8 4.5 2.8 Loss on early debt extinguishment 14.8 - - - - - - Acquisition Related Costs - 1.7 10.4 1.5 - - - Other nonoperating (income) expense (0.4) (0.3) (0.2) 2.3 - 0.6 (1.4) Adjusted EBITDA 422.6$ 722.7$ 828.0$ 1,190.9$ 1,058.5$ 1,006.8$ 1,019.4$ Year Ended December 31,

Murphy USA Inc. 24 Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation Full-Year 2026 to 2030 – GAAP to non-GAAP Reconciliation Base (SS + NTI) Only EBITDA figures used on slide 19 of this presentation 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 (Billions of dollars) Net Income $0.44 $0.46 $0.47 $0.48 $0.49 Income taxes 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.17 Interest expense, net of interest income 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 Depreciation and amortization 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.35 Other operating and nonoperating, net 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Adjusted EBITDA $1.00 $1.03 $1.06 $1.09 $1.12

FAQ

What key guidance does Murphy USA (MUSA) provide for 2026?

Murphy USA guides to 45–55 new stores, up to 30 raze-and-rebuilds, merchandise contribution of $890–$900 million, retail station operating expense of $37.0–$38.0K per store APSM, SG&A of $240–$250 million, and capital expenditures of $475–$525 million.

How has Murphy USA’s adjusted EBITDA trended from 2019 to 2025?

Murphy USA reports adjusted EBITDA growing from $422.6 million in 2019 to $1,019.4 million in 2025. Intermediate years include $722.7 million in 2020, $828.0 million in 2021, $1,190.9 million in 2022, $1,058.5 million in 2023, and $1,006.8 million in 2024.

What long-term adjusted EBITDA targets does Murphy USA (MUSA) outline for 2026–2030?

Murphy USA’s base-case plan projects adjusted EBITDA of $1.00 billion in 2026, rising to $1.03 billion in 2027, $1.06 billion in 2028, $1.09 billion in 2029, and $1.12 billion in 2030, with upside scenarios tied to higher all-in cents-per-gallon margins.

How is Murphy USA (MUSA) approaching organic growth and new stores?

Murphy USA emphasizes organic growth as its primary value driver, targeting 2.5–3.5% new stores per year. In 2025 it opened 51 new stores and completed 23 raze-and-rebuilds, and 2026 guidance anticipates 45–55 new stores and up to 30 rebuilds.

What does the filing reveal about Murphy USA’s capital allocation plans?

Murphy USA plans $475–$525 million of capital expenditures in 2026, following $432 million in 2025. The presentation highlights continued investment in new and existing stores and notes that share repurchases have reduced shares outstanding significantly since the 2013 spin.

Which strategic priorities guide Murphy USA’s long-term plan?

Murphy USA’s framework centers on five strategies: growing organically, diversifying merchandise mix, sustaining cost leadership, creating advantage from fuel market volatility, and investing for the long term, including technology, people, and capabilities across its network.

Filing Exhibits & Attachments

4 documents

Press Releases

• EX-99.1 EX-99.1 23.9 KB

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