Economists expect Friday's PPI report to show producer prices up 6.6% over the 12 months to October, in the consensus compiled by Dow Jones, the biggest yearly rise since November 2022. A modest month can get there, because October 2025, the month that drops out, rose only 0.2% before seasonal adjustment.
The short answer. BLS publishes October's Producer Price Index on Friday morning, and the consensus compiled by Dow Jones expects a 6.6% rise over a year. It is the last CPI or PPI report before the Fed's December 9 rate decision, and the Fed says its rate changes quickly reach the rates on short-term and floating-rate loans, including many credit lines. Any unadjusted October rise above about 0.2% lifts the yearly rate above September's 6.3%, while core prices without food and energy face a much higher bar.
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 0.23% |
| Nov 2025 | 0.09% |
| Dec 2025 | 0.13% |
| Jan 2026 | 0.91% |
| Feb 2026 | 0.66% |
| Mar 2026 | 0.99% |
| Apr 2026 | 1.14% |
| May 2026 | 0.50% |
| Jun 2026 | -0.04% |
| Jul 2026 | 0.09% |
| Aug 2026 | 0.35% |
| Sep 2026 | 1.11% |
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The PPI report for October comes out on Friday, November 13, at 8:30 a.m. ET. The one after it, for November, comes on December 15.
The date and time are on the BLS release schedule for the Producer Price Index. The September report, published on October 15, also named Friday as the date for October's figures.
The PPI tracks the prices that US businesses receive for the goods and services they sell. The headline measure is called final demand, which covers goods, services and construction, the BLS handbook says.
Economists expect a much smaller monthly rise than in September. They still expect the yearly rate to climb, to 6.6% from 6.3%.
The consensus compiled by Dow Jones, as of November 11, calls for final demand prices to rise 0.4% in October after seasonal adjustment, which strips out the usual swings of the calendar. That is the monthly figure BLS puts first in its release. In September, prices jumped 1.3%, the largest monthly rise since March 2022, BLS reported.
The same consensus sees core PPI up 0.3% for the month, a measure that leaves out food and energy, after 0.7% in September, BLS's seasonally adjusted core index shows. For the 12 months to October, it calls for a 6.6% rise in final demand prices. BLS measures that yearly change before seasonal adjustment.
A 6.6% yearly rise would top September's 6.3%, which BLS called the largest 12-month increase since December 2022. It would be the highest since November 2022, when the yearly rate was 7.4%.
| PPI measure | September 2026, actual | October 2026, Dow Jones consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Final demand, monthly change (seasonally adjusted) | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Final demand less food and energy, monthly change | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Final demand, 12-month change (not seasonally adjusted) | 6.3% | 6.6% |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI news release for September 2026, Table A, and BLS series WPSFD49104 for final demand less foods and energy; the consensus compiled by Dow Jones, as of November 11, 2026.
The yearly rate swaps one month for another. On Friday, October 2025 leaves and October 2026 comes in. October 2025 was a calm month, so even a modest rise this October pushes the yearly rate up.
A yearly rate is a chain of 12 monthly changes. Each new report adds the latest month and drops the same month a year earlier. So the yearly rate rises whenever the new month beats the one it replaces.
The month leaving on Friday is October 2025. That month, BLS's index of final demand prices rose just 0.2% before seasonal adjustment, its unadjusted index shows. Seven of the 12 months now inside the yearly rate rose more.
That gives a plain rule for Friday. If October 2026 prices rise more than about 0.2% before seasonal adjustment, the yearly rate climbs above 6.3%. If they rise less, it slips. A flat month would leave it near 6.1%.
The 6.6% in the consensus matches an unadjusted monthly rise of about 0.5%. Keep the two kinds of figures apart, though. The 0.4% expected for the month is seasonally adjusted. The yearly rate and the bar are not adjusted.
The two can differ by a little. In October 2025, the adjusted change was 0.1%, Table A of the BLS release shows, a bit lower than the unadjusted one.
This also sets the PPI apart from the CPI. Federal agencies were shut down or short of staff from October 1 through November 12, 2025, and most CPI work stopped, BLS says. So Tuesday's October CPI report had no yearly rate for overall or core prices. BLS does have an October 2025 producer price index, and Table A of its September PPI release already lists it.
Core PPI, without food and energy, faces the opposite test. Its October 2025 rise was large, so it needs a big October to keep its yearly rate where it is.
Core producer prices rose 5.0% over the 12 months to September, BLS's unadjusted core index shows. In October 2025, that index rose about 0.55% before seasonal adjustment, more than twice the headline's rise that month.
So the core yearly rate holds at 5.0% only if October 2026 brings a similar rise, about 0.55% before seasonal adjustment. A rise of 0.3% on that basis would take it to about 4.7%.
So the headline yearly rate can rise on Friday while the core rate falls, since each one loses its own October 2025 figure.
Energy drove about half of September's jump. Between the likely PPI pricing days of September 15 and October 13, the WTI spot price of crude fell 10.9% in StockTitan's daily economic data. The average US price of regular gasoline rose 0.3% in the EIA weekly retail series, from the week of September 14 to the week of October 12.
Energy prices for producers jumped 10.8% in September, BLS reported. Energy supplied about half of the 1.3% rise, although it makes up only about 6% of the index.
Timing matters here. BLS says most PPI prices refer to one day, "the Tuesday of the week that includes the 13th of the month," according to its PPI methods handbook. That points to September 15 and October 13 in 2026.
Between those two days, the WTI spot price of US crude fell 10.9%, to $95.39 a barrel on October 13, StockTitan's daily economic data show. The Brent spot price fell less, and pump prices barely moved in the EIA weekly retail gasoline series the same page carries, as the chart shows.
| Category | Change |
|---|---|
| WTI crude | -10.9% |
| Brent crude | -3.8% |
| Pump gasoline | +0.3% |
Crude is only an input, though. The PPI's energy index measures what producers get for fuels and power, and BLS prices some products on other days. Oil also swung through October, and both spot prices still averaged more over the month of October than over September in the same data.
The PPI also counts trade margins, the gap between what stores and wholesalers pay for goods and what they charge. BLS "tracks the average changes in gross margins received by wholesalers and retailers," its handbook says. In September, margins for automotive fuels and lubricants retailing dropped 30.3%, BLS reported. The release gives no reason. A falling margin means the gap between what retailers charged and what they paid narrowed.
CME Group's FedWatch tool put the odds of a quarter point hike on December 9 at about 90%, CNBC reported at 9:58 a.m. ET on November 11. Friday's report is the last CPI or PPI report before that decision, and economists use it to update their estimate of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4% on October 28, with two officials voting for a hike. After Tuesday's hotter than expected CPI report, CME Group's FedWatch tool put the odds of a quarter point hike on December 9 at about 90%, CNBC reported in its live coverage updated at 9:58 a.m. ET on November 11. Those odds are market pricing, and they move with each new report.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on November 10 that he leans toward a quarter point hike. He added that a half point hike should be considered if core CPI rose around 0.3% or higher in October, his speech in London shows. Hours later, BLS reported that core CPI rose 0.3% in October.
The PPI matters for a second reason. The Fed's 2% goal is measured with the personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, the Fed says. After the CPI, economists estimated that core PCE prices rose 0.4% in October, and said Friday's producer price data could change that estimate, Reuters reported on November 10. BEA publishes October PCE on November 25.
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Nov 13 | PPI report for October, BLS |
| Nov 25 | PCE prices for October, BEA |
| Dec 4 | Jobs report for November, BLS |
| Dec 9 | Fed rate decision |
| Dec 10 | CPI report for November, BLS |
| Dec 15 | PPI report for November, BLS |
The November CPI comes on December 10 and the November PPI on December 15, both after the decision. October's PCE and the November jobs report, due December 4 on the BLS schedule, still come before the decision.
Neither by itself. Markets usually read a PPI report through what it means for interest rates, so a hotter figure tends to matter when it changes what traders expect the Fed to do.
The Fed explains the link on its page on how monetary policy works. Changes in interest rates "tend to affect stock prices by changing the relative attractiveness of equity as an investment," it says. Lower rates "can make holding equities more attractive," the same page adds, and by that logic higher rates work the other way.
On Tuesday, the day of a hotter than expected CPI report, stocks fell and Treasury yields jumped, CNBC reported on November 10. For Friday's report, that link would run through whether the figures change what traders expect the Fed to do on December 9. The 6.6% consensus already calls for a higher yearly rate, partly because the calm month of October 2025 drops out of it.
What to watch
Our numbers
These figures are our calculations from the sources linked in this article. They use the indexes BLS publishes today and can change if BLS revises September or earlier months on Friday.
BLS publishes the PPI report at 8:30 a.m. ET. The October 2026 report comes out on Friday, November 13, and the November report on Tuesday, December 15, at the same time.
The consensus compiled by Dow Jones calls for final demand prices to rise 0.4% for the month, after seasonal adjustment, and 6.6% over 12 months. For core prices without food and energy, it expects 0.3% for the month.
It is the monthly BLS report on the prices US businesses receive for the goods and services they sell. Its headline index, final demand, covers goods, services and construction.
Yes. BLS has an October 2025 producer price index to compare with, unlike the CPI, whose October 2025 prices were never collected during the 2025 government shutdown.
Traders watch the PPI because it measures price pressure on businesses and can change estimates of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. A report that changes what traders expect from the Fed can move stocks and bond yields on the day.
BLS posts the report on its Producer Price Index news release page at 8:30 a.m. ET on release day, with the tables and the full text.
Sources
