Allegiant Reports February 2025 Traffic

Rhea-AI Summary

Allegiant Travel Company (NASDAQ: ALGT) has reported its February 2025 traffic results, indicating challenges in leisure demand during shoulder and off-peak periods. While peak March weeks show strong performance with TRASM (Total Revenue per Available Seat Mile) nearly matching last year's levels, the company expects first quarter TRASM to decline by over 7% year-over-year.

In response to current demand trends, Allegiant is reducing its full-year capacity forecast from 17% to 13% growth year-over-year, primarily affecting shoulder and off-peak periods. Despite these challenges, the company's cost performance is exceeding expectations, with projected consolidated earnings per share at approximately $1.50, and airline operations contributing around $1.75 per share.

Positive

• Better-than-expected cost performance in Q1 2025
• Strong performance during peak March weeks
• Proactive capacity management to adapt to demand environment

Negative

• Q1 TRASM expected to decline over 7% year-over-year
• Experiencing leisure demand softness in shoulder and off-peak periods
• Reduction in full-year capacity forecast from 17% to 13%

Insights

Aviation Industry Analyst

Allegiant's February traffic report reveals significant operational adjustments in response to weakening market conditions. The airline is experiencing leisure demand softness in shoulder and off-peak periods, forcing management to reduce their full-year capacity growth forecast from 17% to 13% - a substantial 23.5% reduction in planned expansion.

More concerning is the projected first quarter TRASM (Total Revenue per Available Seat Mile) decline of over 7% year-over-year, indicating material revenue pressure despite capacity growth. While peak March weeks are performing better with TRASM nearly matching last year's levels, the overall quarterly trend points to challenges in maintaining yield and load factors during non-peak periods.

On the positive side, the company is seeing better-than-expected cost performance, which is partially offsetting revenue weakness. This has enabled management to project quarterly earnings at approximately $1.50 per share (at the lower end of initial guidance), with the airline segment contributing around $1.75 per share.

The strategic capacity reductions targeting underperforming periods demonstrate operational flexibility, but the underlying demand weakness and downward revisions to both capacity and revenue metrics represent negative developments for near-term performance. These adjustments signal a challenging leisure travel environment that's forcing Allegiant to scale back its growth ambitions.

LAS VEGAS, March 18, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Allegiant Travel Company (NASDAQ: ALGT) today reported preliminary passenger traffic results for February 2025.

"Consistent with recent industry commentary, we are experiencing leisure demand softness, predominantly observed during the shoulder and off-peak periods," stated Drew Wells, Chief Commercial Officer of Allegiant Travel Company. "Peak March weeks are performing strong with TRASM nearly in line with the same weeks in the prior year, despite significant growth. However, given the shoulder period weakness, we now expect first quarter TRASM to decline just over seven percent from the prior year. Due to current demand trends, we will reduce our full-year capacity forecast from up 17 percent to up 13 percent year-over-year, with cuts primarily affecting the shoulder and off-peak periods. We will remain flexible with our capacity deployment to appropriately adapt to the demand environment."

"We are seeing better-than-expected cost performance during the quarter," stated Robert Neal, Chief Financial Officer of Allegiant Travel Company. "We anticipate our consolidated earnings per share will come in at the lower end of our initial guide at approximately $1.50 per share, with the airline contributing around $1.75 per share."   

Scheduled Service – Year Over Year Comparison
	February 2025	February 2024	Change
Passengers	1,280,034	1,243,576	2.9 %
Revenue passenger miles (000)	1,249,948	1,194,104	4.7 %
Available seat miles (000)	1,573,230	1,421,672	10.7 %
Load factor	79.5 %	84.0 %	(4.5pts)
Departures	9,390	8,556	9.7 %
Average stage length (miles)	952	933	2.1 %

 

Total System* – Year Over Year Comparison
	February 2025	February 2024	Change
Passengers	1,286,748	1,253,860	2.6 %
Available seat miles (000)	1,610,101	1,456,189	10.6 %
Departures	9,676	8,846	9.4 %
Average stage length (miles)	946	924	2.3 %

*Total system includes scheduled service and fixed fee contract.  System revenue passenger miles and system load factor are not useful statistics as system available seat miles include both ASMs flown by fixed fee flying as well as non-revenue producing repositioning flights used for operational needs.  Fixed fee flying is better measured through dollar contribution versus operational statistics.

 

Preliminary Financial Results
	$ per gallon
February 2025 estimated average fuel cost per gallon - system	$2.70

Allegiant Travel Company

Las Vegas-based Allegiant (NASDAQ: ALGT) is an integrated travel company with an airline at its heart, focused on connecting customers with the people, places and experiences that matter most. Since 1999, Allegiant Air has linked travelers in small-to-medium cities to world-class vacation destinations with all-nonstop flights and industry-low average fares. Today, Allegiant's fleet serves communities across the nation, with base airfares less than half the cost of the average domestic roundtrip ticket. For more information, visit us at Allegiant.com. Media information, including photos, is available at gofly.us/iiFa303wrtF

ALGT/G

Note: This news release was accurate at the date of issuance. However, information contained in the release may have changed. If you plan to use the information contained herein for any purpose, verification of its continued accuracy is your responsibility.

For further information please visit the company's investor website: ir.allegiantair.com

Reference to the Company's website above does not constitute incorporation of any of the information thereon into this news release.

Allegiant Media Contact:		Investor Inquiries:
Sonya Padgett		Sherry Wilson
mediarelations@allegiantair.com		ir@allegiantair.com

 

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SOURCE Allegiant Travel Company

FAQ

What is Allegiant's (ALGT) revised capacity forecast for 2025?

Allegiant has reduced its full-year capacity forecast from 17% to 13% growth year-over-year, focusing cuts on shoulder and off-peak periods.

How much is ALGT's expected earnings per share for Q1 2025?

Allegiant expects consolidated earnings of approximately $1.50 per share, with the airline segment contributing around $1.75 per share.

What is the projected TRASM decline for Allegiant (ALGT) in Q1 2025?

Allegiant expects first quarter TRASM (Total Revenue per Available Seat Mile) to decline just over 7% compared to the previous year.

How is Allegiant's (ALGT) peak March 2025 performance trending?

Peak March weeks are performing strong with TRASM nearly matching the same weeks in the prior year, despite significant growth.