January 2026 Monthly Release

Rhea-AI Summary

Allstate (NYSE: ALL) reported estimated January 2026 catastrophe losses of $175 million (or $138 million, after-tax), primarily tied to Winter Storm Fern. Policy counts on Allstate Protection totaled 38.262 million items at Jan. 31, 2026, up 2.2% year-over-year.

Auto items were 25.484 million, homeowners 7.709 million, other personal lines 4.894 million, and commercial lines 0.175 million (down 14.2% YoY).

Positive

• Total policies items +2.2% year-over-year to 38.262 million
• Auto policies items +2.6% year-over-year to 25.484 million
• Homeowners policies items +2.5% year-over-year to 7.709 million

Negative

• Estimated catastrophe losses $175 million (or $138 million after-tax) for January 2026
• Commercial lines items down 14.2% year-over-year to 0.175 million

News Market Reaction – ALL

-2.92%

1 alert

-2.92% News Effect

On the day this news was published, ALL declined 2.92%, reflecting a moderate negative market reaction.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Key Figures

Jan 2026 catastrophe losses (pre-tax): $175 million Jan 2026 catastrophe losses (after-tax): $138 million Total policies in force: 38,262 thousand +5 more

8 metrics

Jan 2026 catastrophe losses (pre-tax) $175 million Estimated catastrophe losses for January 2026, primarily Winter Storm Fern

Jan 2026 catastrophe losses (after-tax) $138 million Estimated after-tax catastrophe losses for January 2026

Total policies in force 38,262 thousand Allstate Protection policies in force as of Jan. 31, 2026

Auto policies in force 25,484 thousand Auto policies in force as of Jan. 31, 2026

Homeowners policies in force 7,709 thousand Homeowners policies in force as of Jan. 31, 2026

Other personal lines policies 4,894 thousand Other personal lines policies in force as of Jan. 31, 2026

Commercial lines policies 175 thousand Commercial lines policies in force as of Jan. 31, 2026

Total policy growth YoY 2.2 % Change in total policies Jan. 31, 2026 vs. Jan. 31, 2025

Market Reality Check

Price: $203.22 Vol: Volume 2,234,762 is about...

normal vol

$203.22 Last Close

Volume Volume 2,234,762 is about 1.24x its 20-day average of 1,799,745, indicating elevated trading interest ahead of/around this update. normal

Technical Shares at $209.43 trade above the 200-day MA of $202.91 and about 3.38% below the 52-week high of $216.75.

Peers on Argus

ALL fell 1.36% while key peers TRV (-0.41%), HIG (-1.33%), CB (-0.97%), WRB (-0....

ALL fell 1.36% while key peers TRV (-0.41%), HIG (-1.33%), CB (-0.97%), WRB (-0.34%) and MKL (-0.64%) were also down modestly. However, no peers appeared in the momentum scanner, and the move was not classified as a sector-wide rotation.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Feb 17 (Neutral)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Feb 17	Community initiative	Neutral	+2.3%	Recognition of 20 student-athletes on the Allstate NACDA Good Works Team.
Feb 04	Earnings, capital return	Positive	+2.6%	Strong Q4 and 2025 results, dividend increase and new $4.0B buyback.
Jan 15	Dec cat losses	Negative	-0.3%	Reported December and Q4 catastrophe losses with detailed policy counts.
Jan 07	Earnings call notice	Neutral	-0.3%	Announcement of timing and logistics for Q4 2025 earnings call.
Dec 18	Nov cat losses	Negative	-2.0%	November catastrophe losses and monthly policy-in-force disclosure.

Pattern Detected

Recent news, including catastrophe-loss updates and earnings, has mostly seen price moves in the same direction as the apparent news tone.

Recent Company History

Over the past few months, Allstate has paired routine monthly catastrophe and policy-count updates with stronger strategic milestones. The November and December monthly releases highlighted catastrophe losses but also steady growth to 38,275k policies by Dec. 31, 2025, with some pressure in commercial lines. The Feb. 4, 2026 earnings release showed robust 2025 results, including $67.7B in revenue and a new $4.0B repurchase program, drawing positive price reactions. Today’s January 2026 catastrophe-loss and policy-count update continues this pattern of detailed operational disclosure following Q4 results.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement details January 2026 catastrophe losses of $175 million pre-tax (or $138 million a...

Analysis

This announcement details January 2026 catastrophe losses of $175 million pre-tax (or $138 million after-tax), primarily from Winter Storm Fern, alongside updated policy counts. Allstate Protection ended January with 38,262 thousand policies in force, up 2.2% year over year, with growth in auto, homeowners and other personal lines and weaker commercial lines. Investors may track ongoing catastrophe trends, policy growth by segment, and subsequent quarterly results to gauge how losses affect profitability and capital deployment.

Key Terms

catastrophe losses, after-tax, policies in force, lender-placed policies

4 terms

catastrophe losses financial

"announced estimated catastrophe losses for the month of January of $175 million"

Catastrophe losses are large, unexpected insurance payouts that follow major disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes, wildfires or pandemics. They matter to investors because they can sharply reduce an insurer’s profits, drain reserves and force special financing or rate increases — much like a sudden flood overwhelming a city’s budget — and can also ripple through markets by affecting reinsurers, bondholders and stock prices.

after-tax financial

"$175 million or $138 million, after-tax, primarily related to Winter Storm"

After-tax is the amount of income, profit or return that remains once all applicable taxes have been subtracted. For investors it shows the real money they keep from gains, dividends or interest—like the take-home pay from a paycheck—so it directly affects comparisons between investments, cash available for reinvestment, and overall portfolio performance. Using after-tax figures reveals true net returns and tax efficiency.

policies in force financial

"Allstate Protection policies in force are as follows:"

Policies in force are the insurance contracts that are currently active and able to pay claims, similar to the number of active subscriptions a company has. For investors, they show the scale of an insurer’s current business and help indicate potential future revenue from premiums and ongoing exposure to claims; rising counts suggest growth, while shrinking counts can signal lapses or reduced future income.

lender-placed policies financial

"Lender-placed policies are excluded from policy counts because relationships are"

Lender-placed policies are insurance policies a lender or loan servicer purchases to protect property that backs a loan when the borrower fails to keep their own insurance. Think of it like a landlord buying coverage for a rental after a tenant’s policy lapses; it keeps the lender from taking an uninsured loss but usually costs the borrower more. Investors watch these policies because they affect loan recovery risk, servicer revenue, borrower costs, and potential regulatory or reputational issues.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

NORTHBROOK, Ill., Feb. 19, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL) today announced estimated catastrophe losses for the month of January of $175 million or $138 million, after-tax, primarily related to Winter Storm Fern.

Allstate Protection policies in force are as follows:

Allstate Protection Policies in Force (1)
(in thousands)		January 31, 2026		December 31, 2025		January 31, 2025		Jan. 31, 2026 v Dec. 31, 2025		Jan. 31, 2026 v Jan. 31, 2025
Auto		25,484		25,504		24,835		(0.1) %		2.6 %
Homeowners		7,709		7,697		7,521		0.2 %		2.5 %
Other personal lines		4,894		4,898		4,866		(0.1) %		0.6 %
Commercial lines		175		176		204		(0.6) %		(14.2) %
Total		38,262		38,275		37,426		— %		2.2 %

(1)	Policy counts are based on items rather than customers. A multi-car customer would generate multiple item (policy) counts, even if all cars were insured under one policy. Lender-placed policies are excluded from policy counts because relationships are with the lenders.

Financial information, including material announcements about The Allstate Corporation, is routinely posted on www.allstateinvestors.com.

Forward-Looking Statements
This news release contains "forward-looking statements" that anticipate results based on our estimates, assumptions and plans that are subject to uncertainty. These statements are made subject to the safe-harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements do not relate strictly to historical or current facts and may be identified by their use of words like "plans," "seeks," "expects," "will," "should," "anticipates," "estimates," "intends," "believes," "likely," "targets" and other words with similar meanings. We believe these statements are based on reasonable estimates, assumptions and plans. However, if the estimates, assumptions or plans underlying the forward-looking statements prove inaccurate or if other risks or uncertainties arise, actual results could differ materially from those communicated in these forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, the forward-looking statements may be found in our filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including the "Risk Factors" section in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K. Forward-looking statements are as of the date on which they are made, and we assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement.

About Allstate
The Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL) protects people from life's uncertainties with affordable, simple and connected protection for autos, homes, electronic devices, and identities. Products are available through a broad distribution network including Allstate agents, independent agents, major retailers, online, and at the workplace. Allstate has 211 million policies in force and is widely known for the slogan "You're in Good Hands with Allstate." For more information, visit www.allstate.com.

 

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SOURCE Allstate Insurance Company

FAQ

What catastrophe losses did Allstate (ALL) report for January 2026?

Allstate reported estimated January 2026 catastrophe losses of $175 million, or $138 million after-tax. According to the company, losses were primarily related to Winter Storm Fern and included in the monthly estimated catastrophe figures.

How many Allstate (ALL) protection policy items were in force on January 31, 2026?

Allstate had 38.262 million policy items in force as of January 31, 2026. According to the company, counts are item-based (multi-car customers generate multiple items) and exclude lender-placed policies.

How did Allstate (ALL) auto and homeowners policy counts change year-over-year in January 2026?

Auto items rose 2.6% and homeowners items rose 2.5% year-over-year as of Jan. 31, 2026. According to the company, these changes reflect item-level counts compared with Jan. 31, 2025.

Why did Allstate's (ALL) commercial lines policy items fall in January 2026?

Commercial lines policy items declined 14.2% year-over-year to 0.175 million as of Jan. 31, 2026. According to the company, the table shows the year-over-year decrease in commercial items without further attribution.

Will Allstate (ALL) disclose more financial details about January 2026 events?

Financial information and material announcements are routinely posted on the company investor site. According to the company, investors can find additional details and updates on its investor relations website.