Stonegate Capital Partners Updates Coverage on Aemetis Inc. (AMTX) 3Q26

An $11.0M first-half tax-credit catch-up helped quarterly profits, while most MVR benefits are now expected in 2H27.

Rhea-AI Summary

Aemetis (AMTX) reported its first quarterly net income as Stonegate Capital Partners updated coverage following the company's third-quarter 2026 results. Revenue rose 49% year over year to $88.2M, adjusted EBITDA reached $24.8M, and net income was $5.2M. Results included an $11.0M first-half 45Z tax-credit catch-up. Excluding that catch-up, renewable natural gas (RNG) 45Z revenue was $9.1M; RNG volume increased 39% year over year.

Keyes MVR system construction is targeted for completion around March 2027, with most benefits now expected in the second half of 2027. Management maintains an approximately $32M annual cash-flow opportunity. A third corn-oil unit scheduled for December completes a program expected to roughly double output versus the first quarter of 2026. Two digesters entered service in October, while six more low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) pathways are nearing approval.

12 points · 0 major

PositiveiHow this balance works

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Rhea-AI Sentiment measures something else, the tone of the wording.

How the balance worksHow Sentiment works

0 major · 3 points

Hollow bars mark forward-looking points. How the balance works

Positive

• Moderate pointRevenue rose 49% year over year to $88.2M in 3Q26.
• Moderate pointFirst quarterly net income of $5.2M accompanied adjusted EBITDA of $24.8M in 3Q26.
• Moderate point$11.0M first-half 45Z catch-up boosted quarterly profits. 8.8% of market cap
• Moderate pointRNG 45Z revenue was $9.1M for the quarter, excluding the catch-up.
• Moderate pointRNG volume rose 39% year over year in 3Q26.
• Moderate point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.MVR construction targets completion around March 2027; all key equipment is on site.
• Moderate point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.Approximately $32M annual cash-flow opportunity remains management's expectation for MVR; natural-gas savings begin at switchover.
• Moderate point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.Third corn-oil unit scheduled for December completes a program expected to roughly double output versus 1Q26.

4 minor points

• Minor pointFederal model update lifted the RNG 45Z credit to approximately $62/MMBtu.
• Minor pointTwo digesters entered service in October, adding operating assets.
• Minor point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.RNG fueling station deliveries to truck fleets are scheduled to begin in November.
• Minor pointThirteen cleanup and compression units are in hand for the next 13 digesters.

Negative

• Moderate point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.Most MVR benefits now expected in 2H27, extending the funding period before Keyes' next earnings step.
• Minor pointSix additional LCFS pathways are nearing approval, but approval remains pending.
• Minor point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.EU export approvals for India biodiesel remain expected in 4Q rather than completed.

Key Figures

Revenue: $88.2M, up 49% y/y Adjusted EBITDA: $24.8M Net income: $5.2M +5 more

Revenue

$88.2M, up 49% y/y

3Q26

Adjusted EBITDA

$24.8M

3Q26

Net income

$5.2M

First quarterly net income

45Z first-half catch-up

$11.0M

Recognized in 3Q26 results

RNG 45Z revenue

$9.1M

3Q26, excluding the catch-up

RNG 45Z credit value

~$62/MMBtu

After the federal model update

RNG volume

Up 39% y/y

3Q26

MVR annual cash-flow opportunity

~$32M

Management estimate; most benefit expected in 2H27

Historical Context

3 past events · Latest: Sep 28

3 events

1. Sep 28

   45Z credit sale

   24h Move

   +3.1%

   Aemetis received proceeds from 2026 clean-fuel credit sales, including RNG credits valued at $62 per MMBtu.

2. Oct 22

   Digester operations

   24h Move

   -5.5%

   Two additional digesters entered operation, advancing RNG capacity and the same pathway approvals discussed here.

3. Aug 10

   2Q26 results

   24h Move

   -3.5%

   Stonegate cited operating gains alongside $1.0 million unrestricted cash and $415.9 million total debt.

24h Move is the share-price change in the day after each event; other market factors may also have contributed.

Key Terms

adjusted ebitda, rng, lcfs

3 terms

adjusted ebitda financial

"adjusted EBITDA reached $24.8M"

Adjusted EBITDA is a way companies measure how much money they make from their core operations, like running a business, by removing certain costs or income that aren’t part of regular business activities. It helps investors see how well a company is doing without distractions from unusual expenses or gains, making it easier to compare companies or track performance over time.

rng technical

"Excluding it, RNG 45Z revenue was $9.1M for the quarter"

Renewable natural gas (RNG) is methane captured from organic waste sources—like landfills, farms, or wastewater—and cleaned to match the quality of conventional natural gas. For investors, RNG matters because it turns waste into a marketable, low-carbon fuel that can create new revenue streams, qualify for environmental credits, and reduce a company’s carbon footprint much like turning trash into a sellable product.

lcfs regulatory

"six more LCFS pathways are nearing approval"

LCFS stands for Low Carbon Fuel Standard, a regulatory program that pushes fuel producers and transport operators to lower the amount of carbon emitted per unit of fuel by awarding or charging tradable credits. Think of it like a points system where companies that use cleaner fuels earn sellable credits while dirtier producers must buy them; this changes costs, revenue and demand across energy and transport businesses, so it can materially affect valuations and investment returns.

AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

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Dallas, Texas--(Newsfile Corp. - November 6, 2026) - Aemetis Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX): Stonegate Capital Partners Updates Coverage on Aemetis Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX). Aemetis' 3Q26 results strengthened the operating case as higher RNG credit values increased earnings from existing assets. The $11.0M first-half 45Z catchup amplified profits, but recurring economics also improved. Most MVR benefits are now expected in 2H27, extending the funding period before Keyes delivers its next earnings step. Financing terms and cash retained after investment should determine how much improvement reaches shareholders.

To view the full announcement, including downloadable images, bios, and more, click here.

Key Takeaways:

• 3Q26 showed the earnings power of assets already built. Revenue rose 49% y/y to $88.2M, adjusted EBITDA reached $24.8M, and Aemetis posted its first quarterly net income of $5.2M. The $11.0M first-half 45Z catch-up helped, but recurring economics also stepped up. Excluding it, RNG 45Z revenue was $9.1M for the quarter after the federal model update lifted the credit to ~$62/MMBtu. RNG volume rose 39% y/y, two digesters entered service in October, and six more LCFS pathways are nearing approval. That is growth from existing output, without the full long-term buildout.
• Keyes has two near-term margin levers. The MVR system has all key equipment on site and construction targeted for completion around March 2027. Management maintains an ~$32M annual cash-flow opportunity: natural-gas savings begin at switchover, and most of the benefit lands in 2H27. The third corn-oil unit, scheduled for December, completes a program expected to roughly double corn-oil output vs. 1Q26 into a stronger price environment.
• Multiple dated catalysts over the next 12 months. RNG fueling station deliveries to truck fleets are scheduled to begin in November. California's year-round E15 implementation is slated for January 1, 2027. EU export approvals for India biodiesel are expected in 4Q. Thirteen cleanup and compression units are in hand for the next 13 digesters. Higher 45Z and LCFS economics, together with refinancing and a potential minority India IPO, could drive meaningful margin expansion, cash-flow improvement and valuation upside.

Click image above to view full announcement.

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About Stonegate

Stonegate Capital Partners is a leading capital markets advisory firm providing investor relations, equity research, and institutional investor outreach services for public companies. Our affiliate, Stonegate Capital Markets (member FINRA) provides a full spectrum of investment banking, equity research and capital raising for public and private companies.

Contacts:

Stonegate Capital Partners
(214) 987-4121
info@stonegateinc.com

Source: Stonegate, Inc.

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/322926

FAQ

AI-generated questions and answers. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

What were Aemetis AMTX's third-quarter 2026 financial results?

Aemetis reported $88.2M in revenue, up 49% year over year, adjusted EBITDA of $24.8M and its first quarterly net income of $5.2M. An $11.0M first-half 45Z catch-up helped profits; quarterly RNG 45Z revenue excluding that catch-up was $9.1M.

When is Aemetis targeting completion of the Keyes MVR system?

Keyes MVR construction is targeted for completion around March 2027, with most benefits now expected in 2H27. Management maintains an approximately $32M annual cash-flow opportunity, with natural-gas savings beginning at switchover. All key equipment is on site.

When is California's year-round E15 implementation scheduled in Aemetis' coverage update?

California's year-round E15 implementation is slated for January 1, 2027. It is a scheduled development, not a completed implementation.