Stonegate Capital Partners Updates Coverage on BlackSky Technology, Inc. (BKSY) 4Q25

Rhea-AI Summary

BlackSky (NYSE: BKSY) reported 4Q25 revenue of $35.2M, adjusted EBITDA of $8.8M and EPS of ($0.02).

Imagery & Software fell 17% y/y to $14.5M; Mission Solutions rose to $9.5M driven by a new international Gen-3 contract. Backlog reached $345M after $240M+ in new awards. Gross margin improved to 72.6% and FY26 guidance implies continued investment to scale capacity.

Positive

• Adjusted EBITDA rose to $8.8M from $7.4M
• Gross margin expanded to 72.6%
• Backlog increased to $345M after $240M+ awards
• Mission Solutions revenue jumped to $9.5M on Gen-3 contract

Negative

• Total revenue of $35.2M missed Stonegate estimate of $41.1M
• Imagery and Software revenue down 17% y/y to $14.5M
• Professional & Engineering Services slipped to $11.2M from $11.9M
• FY26 guidance requires continued investment, implying near-term spend

Key Figures

Q4 2025 Revenue: $35.2M Q4 Adjusted EBITDA: $8.8M Q4 EPS: ($0.02) +5 more

8 metrics

Q4 2025 Revenue $35.2M Reported vs Stonegate/consensus $41.1M/$36.1M

Q4 Adjusted EBITDA $8.8M Reported vs Stonegate/consensus $11.1M/$7.2M

Q4 EPS ($0.02) Reported vs Stonegate/consensus ($0.18)/($0.28)

Imagery & Software Revenue $14.5M Down -17% y/y, EOCL-related budget uncertainty

Mission Solutions Revenue $9.5M Up from $1.0M last year on new international Gen-3 contract

Professional & Engineering Revenue $11.2M Down from $11.9M y/y due to project timing

Backlog $345M Lifted by $240M+ in new awards, mostly international Gen-3

Gross Margin 72.6% Improved from 65.3% in 3Q25 on mix and cost discipline

Market Reality Check

Price: $18.84 Vol: Volume 1,296,347 is sligh...

normal vol

$18.84 Last Close

Volume Volume 1,296,347 is slightly below 20-day average of 1,393,591 (relative volume 0.93). normal

Technical Price 19.9437 is trading slightly above the 200-day MA at 19.45.

Peers on Argus

Momentum scanner shows only one peer (FA) moving, down 4.960000142455101%, with ...

1 Down

Momentum scanner shows only one peer (FA) moving, down 4.960000142455101%, with no confirming same-direction moves across multiple peers. Broader sector and listed peers show mixed, stock-specific action rather than a coordinated move.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Feb 26 (Positive)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Feb 26	Earnings results	Positive	-1.0%	Reported Q4 and 2025 results with revenue growth and improved profitability metrics.
Feb 17	Contract win	Positive	-0.8%	Announced new eight-figure international Gen-3 sovereign intelligence contract.
Feb 12	Contract win	Positive	-2.6%	Signed seven-figure Assured contract to expand Gen-2 and Gen-3 imagery access.
Feb 05	Conference call	Neutral	-0.7%	Scheduled webcast and call to discuss Q4 and full-year 2025 results.
Feb 03	Services contracts	Positive	+10.7%	Announced seven-figure Gen-3 Assured services contracts with new defense customer.

Pattern Detected

Recent positive contract wins and earnings updates often coincided with flat-to-negative next-day moves, suggesting a pattern of muted or contrarian price reactions to seemingly constructive news.

Recent Company History

Over the past month, BlackSky has highlighted growing Gen-3 momentum and expanding international demand. An 8-K on Feb 26, 2026 reported Q4 revenue of $35.2M, record 2025 revenue of $106.6M, and backlog of $345M, yet the stock moved -0.99%. Multiple seven- and eight-figure Gen-3 contracts in February also saw modest or negative reactions, except for a 10.7% gain on early February Assured services awards. Today’s update continues this theme of strong operational progress with mixed price response.

Regulatory & Risk Context

Active S-3 Shelf · $250,000,000

Shelf Active

Active S-3 Shelf Registration 2025-11-26

$250,000,000 registered capacity

An effective shelf on Form S-3 filed on 2025-11-26 allows BlackSky to issue up to $250,000,000 in various securities over time, giving the company flexibility to raise capital across equity, debt, and related instruments via future prospectus supplements.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement highlights a mixed but improving picture: Q4 revenue of $35.2M missed Stonegate’s ...

Analysis

This announcement highlights a mixed but improving picture: Q4 revenue of $35.2M missed Stonegate’s estimate but beat consensus, while EPS of ($0.02) topped both. Mission Solutions revenue rose to $9.5M, and gross margin expanded to 72.6%. However, Imagery and Software Analytical Services fell 17% y/y to $14.5M amid EOCL-related uncertainty. Backlog reaching $345M on $240M+ in awards and prior Gen-3 contract wins frame key metrics and execution to watch going forward.

Key Terms

adjusted EBITDA, eps, gross margin, backlog

4 terms

adjusted EBITDA financial

"BKSY reported revenue, adj EBITDA, and EPS of $35.2M, $8.8M, and ($0.02)..."

Adjusted EBITDA is a way companies measure how much money they make from their core operations, like running a business, by removing certain costs or income that aren’t part of regular business activities. It helps investors see how well a company is doing without distractions from unusual expenses or gains, making it easier to compare companies or track performance over time.

eps financial

"BKSY reported revenue, adj EBITDA, and EPS of $35.2M, $8.8M, and ($0.02)..."

Earnings per share (EPS) measures how much profit a company makes for each outstanding share of its stock by dividing the company’s profit after expenses by the number of shares. It matters to investors because it shows how much of the company’s “pie” each share represents—higher EPS usually signals greater profitability per share, helps compare companies of different sizes, and influences stock valuations and investor decisions.

gross margin financial

"gross margin improved to 72.6% from 65.3% in 3Q25."

Gross margin is the difference between how much money a company makes from selling its products and how much it costs to produce them, expressed as a percentage of sales. It shows how efficiently a company is turning sales into profit before other expenses like marketing or salaries. Higher gross margin means the company keeps more money from each sale, which is a good sign of financial health.

backlog financial

"$240M+ new awards lifted backlog to $345M, mostly international Gen-3."

A backlog is the amount of work or orders that a company has received but hasn't completed yet. It’s like a restaurant with many dishes to serve; the backlog shows how many orders are still waiting to be finished. It matters because a large backlog can indicate strong demand or potential delays in delivering products or services.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Dallas, Texas--(Newsfile Corp. - February 27, 2026) - BlackSky Technology, Inc. (NYSE: BKSY): Stonegate Capital Partners Updates Coverage on BlackSky Technology, Inc. (NYSE: BKSY). BKSY reported revenue, adj EBITDA, and EPS of $35.2M, $8.8M, and ($0.02), respectively. This compares to our/consensus estimates of $41.1M/$36.1M, $11.1M/$7.2M, and ($0.18)/($0.28). Imagery and Software Analytical Services revenue declined to $14.5M (-17% y/y), with management remaining cautious amid EOCL-related budget uncertainty. Mission Solutions rose to $9.5M (vs. $1.0M last year) on a new international Gen-3 contract and milestone deliveries. Professional and Engineering Services slipped to $11.2M from $11.9M y/y due to project timing. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $8.8M from $7.4M on higher revenue and cost discipline, while gross margin improved to 72.6% from 65.3% in 3Q25.

To view the full announcement, including downloadable images, bios, and more, click here.

Key Takeaways:

• $240M+ new awards lifted backlog to $345M, mostly international Gen-3.
• FY26 guidance implies continued investment in scaling capacity.
• Adjusted EBITDA increased to $8.8M and gross margin expanded to 72.6%, supported by improved mix and cost discipline.

Click image above to view full announcement.

---

About Stonegate
Stonegate Capital Partners is a leading capital markets advisory firm providing investor relations, equity research, and institutional investor outreach services for public companies. Our affiliate, Stonegate Capital Markets (member FINRA) provides a full spectrum of investment banking services for public and private companies.

Contacts:

Stonegate Capital Partners
(214) 987-4121
info@stonegateinc.com

Source: Stonegate, Inc.

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/285641

FAQ

What were BlackSky's (BKSY) key 4Q25 financial results on February 27, 2026?

BlackSky reported 4Q25 revenue $35.2M, adjusted EBITDA $8.8M, EPS ($0.02). According to the company, gross margin improved to 72.6% and backlog rose to $345M after $240M+ in new awards, reflecting strength in international Gen-3 contracts.

Why did BlackSky's (BKSY) Imagery and Software revenue decline in 4Q25?

Imagery and Software revenue declined 17% y/y to $14.5M due to budget uncertainty. According to the company, management remained cautious amid EOCL-related budget uncertainty, which pressured demand and timing for imagery and analytics contracts.

How did Mission Solutions performance affect BlackSky's (BKSY) 4Q25 results?

Mission Solutions rose to $9.5M, up from $1.0M last year, on a new international Gen-3 contract. According to the company, milestone deliveries and the Gen-3 award meaningfully boosted segment revenue and contributed to backlog growth.

What does BlackSky's (BKSY) backlog of $345M mean for investors?

A backlog of $345M signals contracted future revenue support, lifted by $240M+ new awards largely in international Gen-3. According to the company, this backlog should provide near-term revenue visibility while the firm invests to scale capacity in FY26.

Did BlackSky (BKSY) beat or miss analyst estimates for 4Q25 revenue and EPS?

BlackSky missed revenue versus Stonegate estimate ($35.2M vs $41.1M) but beat consensus revenue ($35.2M vs $36.1M) and reported EPS ($0.02 loss) better than estimates. According to the company, cost discipline and mix drove adjusted EBITDA and margin improvement.