The Baldwin Group Q1 2026 Market Pulse: Insurance Market Fragments as Property Softens and Casualty Pressures Persist

Key Terms

general liability financial

General liability is a type of legal and financial exposure that arises when a business causes bodily injury, property damage, or certain kinds of harm to customers, visitors, or other third parties. It matters to investors because such claims can lead to legal fees, settlements or judgments and higher insurance costs; think of it as a company’s safety net against everyday accidents—its size and scope affect profitability, cash flow and the predictability of future costs.

commercial auto financial

Commercial auto refers to vehicles owned, leased, or used primarily for business purposes and the insurance products that cover them. Think of it as the business version of car insurance — it protects against accidents, damage, and liability when vehicles are driven for work, deliveries, or transporting people. Investors watch this line because it drives premium revenue and claim exposure for insurers and signals fleet-related risks and costs for companies that operate many vehicles.

umbrella financial

An umbrella is a single structure or label that groups together multiple products, entities, agreements or policies under one common framework. For investors, an umbrella arrangement can make things simpler and cheaper—like one umbrella sheltering several people—but it can also hide differences between the items beneath it, so investors should check what specific parts are included and how risks, fees or liabilities are allocated.

cyber financial

Cyber refers to digital systems, networks, data and the activities that take place online—including how those systems are protected or attacked. For investors it signals both risk and opportunity: weak cyber practices can cause costly outages, data breaches, regulatory fines and damaged reputation, while strong cyber capabilities or vendors can protect value and be a source of revenue and growth. Think of it as the locks, alarms and security guards for a company’s digital house.

management liability financial

Management liability is the legal and financial responsibility that company leaders and managers carry for their decisions, actions, or failures to act, including risks of lawsuits, regulatory fines, or settlements. For investors it matters because these liabilities can lead to large unexpected costs, signal weak oversight, and affect a company’s value and stability—similar to how a captain’s poor choices can sink a ship and cost passengers dearly.

nuclear verdicts regulatory

An extremely large jury award in a civil lawsuit that far exceeds typical settlements or damages, often driven by punitive damages or juror anger. Like an unexpected financial earthquake, it can suddenly saddle a company with massive costs, raise insurance premiums, and change investor expectations about future legal risk and earnings volatility. Investors watch for these because they can materialy hurt cash flow, valuation and management decisions.

social inflation financial

A rise in insurance losses and legal payouts driven by changing social attitudes, more aggressive lawsuits, larger jury awards, and broader definitions of liability. It matters to investors because it can quietly increase an insurer’s claims costs and required reserves, reduce profits, and raise the risk of sudden losses—similar to a slowly rising tide that makes operating costs higher across the industry and can change how a company is valued.

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New data highlights divergence across commercial insurance lines and the growing need to evaluate risk holistically

TAMPA, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- The Baldwin Group ("Baldwin" or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: BWIN), a leading independent insurance brokerage and advisory firm, today released its Q1 2026 Market Pulse Report, documenting the sharpest divergence between property and casualty pricing trends since the report was launched in Q4 2024.

Commercial property deepened to its steepest negative reading on record while key casualty lines re-accelerated or maintained their upward trend. Based on aggregated data and market activity, the report reflects a shift away from broad market cycles toward a more line-specific environment, where pricing and capacity are increasingly shaped by underlying loss trends, litigation dynamics, and risk quality.

“Market conditions are no longer moving in a single direction,” said Leslie Nylund, National Managing Director of Broking and Insurance Company Partnerships at The Baldwin Group. “As conditions diverge across lines, it’s becoming more important to understand how different risks interact and how decisions in one area can affect outcomes across the broader insurance program.”

A Market Moving in Different Directions

The Q1 2026 data illustrates how conditions vary significantly across the commercial insurance landscape:

• Property: Pricing declined -7.1%, continuing a multi-quarter softening trend driven by strong capacity and competition.
• Workers’ Compensation: Dipped further to -0.9%, extending its trend of slight decreases.
• General Liability: Pulled back to +6.1% from +9.3% in Q4 2025, reflecting ongoing pressure from social inflation and litigation trends.
• Commercial Auto: Moderated to +5.7% though severity drivers remain elevated, such as nuclear verdicts and escalating vehicle repair costs.
• Umbrella: Increased to +8.2%, reversing a three-quarter deceleration trend, signaling continued social inflation pressure and nuclear verdicts.
• Cyber: Returned to positive at +1.1%, indicating early signs of firming amid rising threat activity.
• Management Liability: Showed mixed conditions with modest increases in private markets (+3.3%; down from +4.8% last quarter) and continued competition in public D&O programs (-3.5%).

Outlook: Segmentation Continues, Complexity Increases

Current conditions are expected to persist with continued softening in property and workers' compensation, sustained pressure across casualty lines, and evolving dynamics in cyber and management liability. The defining characteristic of the 2026 market is segmentation, as underwriters are making sharper distinctions by risk quality than at any point in the current cycle, and the gap between outcomes for well-documented accounts and others continues to widen.

Nylund added: “As the property market continues to provide broad pricing reprieve to many insureds, casualty uncertainty persists. While there are signs of moderation in pockets, evidenced by selective competition, structural underwriting concerns remain unchanged. In this market, differentiating with data and analytics is the key to optimizing renewal terms and providing greater certainty to underwriters.”

To access the report, please click here.

ABOUT THE MARKET PULSE REPORT

The Baldwin Group’s Market Pulse Report is a quarterly pricing trend analysis based on aggregated client data. It reflects the combined impact of rate changes, exposure shifts, and client purchasing decisions, such as limits and deductibles, providing directional trend insight rather than line-by-line rate guidance. It draws on proprietary data, broker insights, and insurance company partner feedback, offering a forward-looking view of the market dynamics shaping coverage availability, pricing, and risk appetite nationwide.

ABOUT THE BALDWIN GROUP

The Baldwin Group, the brand name for The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: BWIN) (“Baldwin”) and its affiliates, is an independent insurance distribution firm providing indispensable expertise and insights that strive to give our clients the confidence to pursue their purpose, passion, and dreams. As a team of dedicated entrepreneurs and insurance professionals, we have come together to help protect the possible for our clients. We do this by delivering bespoke client solutions, services, and innovation through our comprehensive and tailored approach to risk management, insurance, and employee benefits. We support our clients, colleagues, insurance company partners, and communities through the deployment of vanguard resources and capital to drive our organic and inorganic growth. The Baldwin Group proudly represents more than three million clients across the United States and internationally. For more information, please visit www.baldwin.com.

NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

This press release may contain various “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which represent Baldwin’s expectations or beliefs concerning future events. Forward-looking statements are statements other than historical facts and may include statements that address Baldwin’s future operating, financial or business performance or Baldwin’s strategies or expectations. In some cases, you can identify these statements by forward-looking words such as “may,” “might,” “will,” “should,” “expects,” “plans,” “anticipates,” “believes,” “estimates,” “predicts,” “projects,” “potential,” “outlook” or “continue,” or the negative of these terms or other comparable terminology. Forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and beliefs and involve significant risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, developments and business decisions to differ materially from those contemplated by these statements.

Factors that could cause actual results or performance to differ from the expectations expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those described under the caption “Risk Factors” in Baldwin’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024 and in Baldwin’s other filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), which are available free of charge on the SEC's website at: www.sec.gov, including those risks and other factors relevant to Baldwin’s business, financial condition and results of operations. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those indicated. All forward-looking statements and all subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements attributable to Baldwin or to persons acting on Baldwin’s behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by reference to these risks and uncertainties. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and Baldwin does not undertake any obligation to update them in light of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as may be required under applicable law.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260507593004/en/

MEDIA RELATIONS
Anna Rozenich, Senior Director, Enterprise Communications, The Baldwin Group
630.561.5907 | anna.rozenich@baldwin.com

Allyson Marcus, Director, Communications, The Baldwin Group
267.994.9052 | allyson.marcus@cacgroup.com

INVESTOR RELATIONS
Bonnie Bishop, Executive Director, Investor Relations, The Baldwin Group
813.259.8032 | IR@baldwin.com

Source: The Baldwin Group