Annual U.S. House Price Growth Slows to Weakest September Pace Since 2011, According to First American Data & Analytics Monthly Home Price Index Report

Luxury-home price growth exceeded starter-home growth in roughly 70 percent of the top markets tracked.

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—Despite the slowdown, annual price growth remains positive across starter, mid-tier and luxury tiers, says Chief Economist Mark Fleming—

SANTA ANA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- First American Data & Analytics, a leading national provider of property-centric information, risk management and valuation solutions and a division of First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF), today released its September 2026 Home Price Index (HPI) report, finding U.S. home prices nationally increased 1.2 percent year over year. The report tracks home price changes less than four weeks behind real time at the national, state and metropolitan (Core-Based Statistical Area) levels and includes metropolitan price tiers that segment sale transactions into starter, mid and luxury tiers. The full report can be found here.

September1 National House Price Index
First American Data & Analytics’ National Non-Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) HPI
Metric	Change in HPI
August 2026-September 2026 (month over month)	0.0 percent
September 2025-September 2026 (year over year)	1.2 percent

Highlights

• September annual house price growth was 1.2 percent, the weakest September reading since 2011, when annual prices were declining.
• House price growth from July to August 2026 was unrevised from last month’s HPI release and remained at 0.2 percent.

“Annual house price growth dipped to its weakest September pace since 2011, but prices continue to rise across all three price tiers,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. “The recent increase in mortgage rates may further constrain affordability and strengthen the rate lock-in effect, limiting both the demand and the supply of homes for sale. Homeowners’ ability to remain in their homes and become neither a seller nor a subsequent buyer, rather than sell into a higher-rate market, continues to put a floor under prices.”

September 2026 Local Market Price Tier Highlights²

The First American Data & Analytics HPI segments home price changes at the metropolitan level into three price tiers based on local market sales data: starter tier, which represents home sales prices at the bottom third of the market price distribution; mid-tier, which represents home sales prices in the middle third of the market price distribution; and the luxury tier, which represents home sales prices in the top third of the market price distribution. Price-tier data are available at the national, state, and 50 largest CBSA levels.

“Luxury house price growth outpaced starter-home price growth in roughly 70 percent of the top markets we track,” said Fleming. “That gap reflects how higher mortgage rates affect buyers differently. Buyers at the lower end of the market tend to have less room to absorb higher monthly payments, while luxury buyers are generally less constrained by financing costs. The long-term shortage of affordable homes continues to support starter-home prices, but today’s affordability pressures are limiting how quickly those prices can rise.”

September 2026 First American Data & Analytics Price Tier HPI Highlights
Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) Ranked by Greatest Year-Over-Year Increases in Starter Tier HPI
CBSA	Change in Starter Tier HPI	Change in Mid-Tier HPI	Change in Luxury Tier HPI
Grand Rapids, Mich.	+5.5 percent	+3.5 percent	+3.4 percent
Milwaukee	+5.2 percent	+3.8 percent	+5.1 percent
Cleveland	+5.1 percent	+4.0 percent	+5.3 percent
Philadelphia	+5.0 percent	+3.4 percent	+3.3 percent
Chicago	+4.7 percent	+4.7 percent	+6.3 percent

September 2026 First American Data & Analytics CBSA HPI Highlights
Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) with Greatest Year-Over-Year Increases in HPI
CBSA	Change in HPI
Chicago	+5.1 percent
New York	+4.9 percent
Hartford, Conn.	+4.7 percent
Cleveland	+4.6 percent
Milwaukee	+4.6 percent
Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) with a Year-Over-Year Decrease in HPI
Dallas	-6.3 percent
Austin, Texas	-4.3 percent
San Antonio	-2.7 percent
Seattle	-2.6 percent
Houston	-2.0 percent

HPI data for all 50 states and the largest 50 CBSAs by population is available here.

Visit the First American Economic Center for more research on housing market dynamics.

Next Release

The next release of the First American Data & Analytics House Price Index will take place the week of November 23, 2026.

September 2026 First American Data & Analytics House Price Index: Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What did the First American Data & Analytics Home Price Index report for September 2026?
A: The First American Data & Analytics National Home Price Index was unchanged from August and increased 1.2 percent year over year in September 2026.

Q: How does September’s annual price growth compare with prior years?
A: The 1.2 percent annual increase was the weakest September reading since 2011, when U.S. home prices were declining. However, house prices were still higher than a year earlier in September 2026.

Q: Did home prices rise across all price tiers?
A: Annual price growth remained positive across the starter, mid-tier and luxury segments. In roughly 70 percent of the top markets tracked, luxury-tier price growth exceeded starter-tier growth.

Q: Which U.S. housing markets had the strongest home price growth in September 2026?
A: Among the 50 largest metropolitan markets tracked by the First American Data & Analytics HPI, Chicago had the largest year-over-year increase in the overall HPI at 5.1 percent, followed by New York at 4.9 percent and Hartford, Connecticut, at 4.7 percent.

Q: Which U.S. housing markets experienced falling home prices in September 2026?
A: Among the 50 largest metropolitan markets tracked by the First American Data & Analytics HPI, Dallas had the largest year-over-year decrease in the HPI at 6.3 percent, followed by Austin at 4.3 percent, San Antonio at 2.7 percent, Seattle at 2.6 percent and Houston at 2.0 percent.

Q: What is the First American Data & Analytics HPI?
A: The First American Data & Analytics Home Price Index measures home price changes at the national, state and metropolitan levels, with data less than four weeks behind real time. The HPI also tracks price changes across starter, mid and luxury price tiers and, beginning with the August 2026 report, provides expanded coverage of the 50 largest metropolitan markets.

Q: How does First American define starter, mid-tier, and luxury homes?
A: The First American Data & Analytics HPI groups home sales into three tiers based on local market sales prices. Starter-tier homes represent the lower third of the local price distribution, mid-tier homes represent the middle third, and luxury homes represent the upper third.

Q: Who produces the First American Data & Analytics HPI?
A: The HPI is produced by First American Data & Analytics, a division of First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF), using more than 46 million paired real estate transactions and the industry’s largest property and ownership dataset.

Q: When will the next HPI report be released?
A: The next First American Data & Analytics Home Price Index report is scheduled for release during the week of November 23, 2026.

First American Data & Analytics HPI Methodology

The First American Data & Analytics HPI report measures single-family home prices, including distressed sales, with indices updated monthly beginning in 1990 through the month of the current report. HPI data is provided at the national, state and CBSA levels and includes preliminary index estimates for the month prior to the report (i.e. the preliminary result of July transactions is reported in August). The most recent index results are subject to revision as data from more transactions become available.

The HPI uses a repeat-sales methodology, which measures price changes for the same property over time using more than 46 million paired transactions to generate the indices. In non-disclosure states, the HPI utilizes MLS sold listings and appraisal data to estimate house prices. This approach is particularly effective in areas where there is limited availability of accurate sale prices, such as non-disclosure states. Property type, price and location data are used to create more refined market segment indices. Real Estate-Owned transactions are not included.

Disclaimer

Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this page are those of First American’s Chief Economist, do not necessarily represent the views of First American or its management, should not be construed as indicating First American’s business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without notice. Although the First American Economics team attempts to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. © 2026 by First American. Information from this page may be used with proper attribution.

About First American Data & Analytics

First American Data & Analytics, a division of First American Financial Corporation, is a national provider of property-centric information, risk management and valuation solutions. First American maintains and curates the industry’s largest public records property and ownership dataset that includes more than 8.6 billion document images. Its major platforms and products include: DataTree^® property data, FraudGuard^® risk solution, RegsData^® compliance suite, Procision™ AVM, and TaxSource™ property tax reporting. Find out more about how First American Data & Analytics powers the real estate, mortgage and title settlement services industries with advanced risk intelligence solutions at www.FirstAmDNA.com.

About First American

First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF) is a premier provider of title, settlement, and risk solutions for real estate transactions. With its combination of financial strength and stability built over more than 135 years, innovative proprietary technologies, and unmatched data assets, the company is leading the digital transformation of its industry. First American also provides data products to the title industry and other third parties; valuation products and services; mortgage subservicing; home warranty products; banking, trust and wealth management services; and other related products and services. With total revenue of $7.5 billion in 2025, the company offers its products and services directly and through its agents throughout the United States and abroad. In 2026, First American was named one of the 100 Best Companies to Work For by Great Place to Work^® and Fortune Magazine for the eleventh consecutive year. More information about the company can be found at www.firstam.com.

¹ The most recent index results are subject to revision as data from more transactions become available.
² Salt Lake City is excluded due to data quality issues.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261026101638/en/

Media Contact:
Marcus Ginnaty
Corporate Communications
First American Financial Corporation
(714) 250-3298

Investor Contact:
Craig Barberio
Investor Relations
First American Financial Corporation
(714) 250-5214

Source: First American Data & Analytics

Key Terms

non-seasonally adjusted technical

Data described as non-seasonally adjusted are the raw, reported figures that have not been altered to remove predictable seasonal patterns, like holiday sales spikes or winter heating costs. Investors use these numbers to see the actual level and short-term swings of activity, similar to reading the unedited daily temperature instead of a seasonally smoothed trend, which helps reveal real-time changes that seasonal adjustments would mask.

core-based statistical area technical

A core-based statistical area (CBSA) is a U.S. geographic region defined by a central urban core of at least 10,000 people plus surrounding counties that are socially and economically tied to that core, usually measured by commuting patterns. For investors, CBSAs act like market “bubbles” that group people, jobs, and commerce into usable regions for comparing population size, local demand, real estate markets, and regional economic indicators.

repeat-sales methodology technical

A repeat-sales methodology is a way to measure price change by tracking the same specific items sold more than once over time, most commonly used for assets like homes or durable goods. It isolates pure price movement by comparing repeat transactions on identical units, filtering out differences between different items much like comparing the performance of the same car when it’s sold twice. Investors care because it produces a cleaner index of true price trends, helping separate market-wide shifts from changes in the mix of items sold.