House Prices Nationally Start 2026 Soft, According to First American Data & Analytics Monthly Home Price Index Report

—Twenty-three of the top 30 markets recorded annual declines, while national appreciation held below 1 percent, says Chief Economist Mark Fleming—

SANTA ANA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- First American Data & Analytics, a leading national provider of property-centric information, risk management and valuation solutions and a division of First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF), today released its January 2026 Home Price Index (HPI) report. The report tracks home price changes less than four weeks behind real time at the national, state and metropolitan (Core-Based Statistical Area) levels and includes metropolitan price tiers that segment sale transactions into starter, mid and luxury tiers. The full report can be found here.

January¹ National House Price Index

First American Data & Analytics’ National Non-Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) HPI
Metric	Change in HPI
December 2025-January 2026 (month over month)	-0.2 percent
January 2025-January 2026 (year over year)	+0.4 percent

Highlights

• Annual house price appreciation remained below 1 percent for the sixth consecutive month in January.
• House price growth reported in last month’s HPI for November 2025 to December 2025 was revised down by -0.07 percentage point, from -0.17 percent to -0.24 percent.

“January’s data suggests that house price appreciation started 2026 much the way it ended last year—subdued,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. “Prices declined modestly on a monthly basis and annual appreciation remained under 1 percent for the sixth consecutive month. The era of rapid price acceleration is long past, replaced by a market with price changes essentially flat on an annual basis. For buyers, that stability is meaningful. Soft price growth, combined with faster rising household incomes, continues to gradually improve affordability.”

January 2026 Local Market Price Tier Highlights

The First American Data & Analytics HPI segments home price changes at the metropolitan level into three price tiers based on local market sales data: starter tier, which represents home sales prices at the bottom third of the market price distribution; mid-tier, which represents home sales prices in the middle third of the market price distribution; and the luxury tier, which represents home sales prices in the top third of the market price distribution.

“Price trends remain uneven across markets, but falling prices are becoming more common,” said Fleming. “Twenty-three of the top 30 markets posted annual price declines, compared with 20 markets that were flat or declining the month before. Midwestern and Northeastern markets continue to lead appreciation, with Warren, Mich., Cambridge, Mass., and St. Louis posting the strongest gains, while several Western markets—including Oakland, Denver, and Seattle—rank among those with the largest annual decreases. In a nationally stable market, local supply and demand dynamics continue to dictate performance.”

January 2026 First American Data & Analytics Price Tier HPI Highlights

Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) Ranked by Greatest Year-Over-Year Increases in Stater Tier HPI
CBSA	Change in Starter Tier HPI	Change in Mid-Tier HPI	Change in Luxury Tier HPI
St. Louis	+6.9 percent	+1.7 percent	+1.1 percent
Cambridge, Mass.	+5.9 percent	+3.8 percent	+2.1 percent
Warren, Mich.	+5.8 percent	+3.1 percent	+2.9 percent
Pittsburgh	+3.2 percent	+2.3 percent	+2.5 percent
Anaheim, Calif.	+2.7 percent	-0.5 percent	+0.4 percent

Additional January 2026 First American Data & Analytics HPI Highlights

Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) with Greatest Year-Over-Year Increases in HPI
CBSA	Change in HPI
Warren, Mich.	+4.4 percent
Cambridge, Mass.	+3.7 percent
St. Louis	+3.1 percent
New York	+1.9 percent
Pittsburgh	+1.5 percent
Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) with a Year-Over-Year Decrease in HPI
Oakland, Calif.	-4.6 percent
Denver	-4.5 percent
Seattle	-4.0 percent
Las Vegas	-3.5 percent
Los Angeles	-2.8 percent

HPI data for all 50 states and the largest 30 CBSAs by population is available here.

Visit the First American Economic Center for more research on housing market dynamics.

Next Release

The next release of the First American Data & Analytics House Price Index will take place the week of March 16, 2026.

January 2026 First American Data & Analytics House Price Index: Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the First American Data & Analytics Home Price Index (HPI)?
A: The First American Data & Analytics Home Price Index (HPI) measures changes in single-family home prices across the United States using a repeat-sales methodology. It tracks price movements at the national, state, and metropolitan (Core-Based Statistical Area) levels and includes starter, mid-tier, and luxury price segments.

Q: What did the January 2026 HPI report find at the national level?
A: National house prices declined 0.2 percent month over month (December 2025 to January 2026) and increased 0.4 percent year over year (January 2025 to January 2026), with annual appreciation remaining below 1 percent for the sixth consecutive month.

Q: What is driving subdued to flat house price growth nationally?
A: According to First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming, the era of rapid price acceleration has long past, and the market has shifted to a period of relative price stability. Slower price growth, combined with rising household incomes, is gradually improving affordability for buyers.

Q: Which markets experienced the strongest price growth in January 2026?
A: Among major markets, Warren, Mich., Cambridge, Mass., and St. Louis posted the strongest annual home price appreciation. Starter-tier growth was particularly strong in St. Louis, Cambridge, and Warren.

Q: Which markets saw the largest price declines?
A: Oakland, Calif., Denver, Seattle, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles recorded the largest year-over-year house price declines among major metropolitan areas.

Q: How does stable price growth improve housing affordability?
A: When home prices grow more slowly than incomes, affordability improves over time. January’s data indicates that subdued price growth is contributing to gradual affordability gains.

Q: How current is the First American HPI data?
A: The HPI tracks home price changes less than four weeks behind real time, making it one of the timeliest measures of U.S. home price trends available.

Q: Who produces the First American HPI?
A: The HPI is produced by First American Data & Analytics, a division of First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF), using more than 46 million paired real estate transactions and the industry’s largest property and ownership dataset.

Q: When will the next HPI report be released?
A: The next First American Data & Analytics Home Price Index report is scheduled for release during the week of March 16, 2026.

First American Data & Analytics HPI Methodology

The First American Data & Analytics HPI report measures single-family home prices, including distressed sales, with indices updated monthly beginning in 1980 through the month of the current report. HPI data is provided at the national, state and CBSA levels and includes preliminary index estimates for the month prior to the report (i.e. the preliminary result of July transactions is reported in August). The most recent index results are subject to revision as data from more transactions become available.

The HPI uses a repeat-sales methodology, which measures price changes for the same property over time using more than 46 million paired transactions to generate the indices. In non-disclosure states, the HPI utilizes a combination of public sales records, MLS sold and active listings, and appraisal data to estimate house prices. This comprehensive approach is particularly effective in areas where there is limited availability of accurate sale prices, such as non-disclosure states. Property type, price and location data are used to create more refined market segment indices. Real Estate-Owned transactions are not included.

Disclaimer

Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this page are those of First American’s Chief Economist, do not necessarily represent the views of First American or its management, should not be construed as indicating First American’s business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without notice. Although the First American Economics team attempts to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. © 2026 by First American. Information from this page may be used with proper attribution.

About First American Data & Analytics

First American Data & Analytics, a division of First American Financial Corporation, is a national provider of property-centric information, risk management and valuation solutions. First American maintains and curates the industry’s largest property and ownership dataset that includes more than 8.6 billion document images. Its major platforms and products include: DataTree^®, FraudGuard^®, RegsData^®, First American TaxSource™ and ACI^®. Find out more about how First American Data & Analytics powers the real estate, mortgage and title settlement services industries with advanced decisioning solutions at www.FirstAmDNA.com.

About First American

First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF) is a premier provider of title, settlement and risk solutions for real estate transactions. With its combination of financial strength and stability built over more than 135 years, innovative proprietary technologies, and unmatched data assets, the company is leading the digital transformation of its industry. First American also provides data products to the title industry and other third parties; valuation products and services; mortgage subservicing; home warranty products; banking, trust and wealth management services; and other related products and services. With total revenue of $7.5 billion in 2025, the company offers its products and services directly and through its agents throughout the United States and abroad. In 2025, First American was named one of the 100 Best Companies to Work For by Great Place to Work^® and Fortune Magazine for the tenth consecutive year. More information about the company can be found at www.firstam.com.

¹ The most recent index results are subject to revision as data from more transactions become available.

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Source: First American Data & Analytics