ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: New Default Activity Posts Annual Decline Led by FHA Loans

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Key Terms

basis points financial

Basis points are a way to measure small changes in interest rates or percentages, where one basis point equals 0.01%. For example, if a loan's interest rate increases by 50 basis points, it's gone up by 0.50%. They help people understand tiny differences in rates that can add up over time, making financial comparisons clearer.

single-month mortality financial

A single-month mortality is the count or rate of deaths that occur within a specific one-month period, used as a short-term snapshot of how deadly a disease, treatment, facility, or event has been over that month. Investors use it to spot sudden changes in health outcomes that can affect demand for medical services, drug safety perceptions, insurance claims, or regulatory scrutiny—think of it as a monthly thermometer that helps detect spikes or improvements in public health and related financial risks.

roll rates technical

Roll rates measure how often loans or accounts move from one payment-status category to a worse one over a set time period, for example from current to 30 days past due or from 30 to 60 days past due. They matter to investors because they reveal how quickly credit quality is deteriorating in a loan portfolio, similar to watching how many people move down steps on a staircase—higher roll rates mean faster movement into trouble and can signal rising losses.

pre-sale inventory financial

Pre-sale inventory is stock that a company holds or produces specifically for orders placed before a product is made widely available, often shipped or delivered when the official sale starts. Investors watch pre-sale inventory because it reveals early customer interest, helps predict future revenue and cash flow, and shows how well a company manages production and demand—like advance ticket sales that signal how many people will show up to a concert.

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07/24/2026 - 09:00 AM

ATLANTA & NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE), one of the world's leading providers of financial market technology and data powering global capital markets, today released the June 2026 ICE First Look at mortgage delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment trends. The analysis found that early-stage delinquencies remained low as new default activity declined. Notably, new FHA defaults posted their largest annual decline in more than four years.

“Overall performance remained strong in June,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. “Early-stage delinquencies remain subdued, and while serious delinquencies including foreclosures have reached pre-pandemic levels, new default activity has leveled off in recent months — a positive sign. New FHA defaults, which have been a focal point of market attention, were down 15% year over year in June. These trends are encouraging, even as the market continues to warrant close monitoring.”

Key takeaways from this month’s findings include:

Delinquencies rose modestly, remaining below pre-pandemic levels: The national delinquency rate rose 5 basis points (bps) to 3.55% in June, roughly half the typical seasonal rise. The rate remains 60 bps below the June 2019 pre-pandemic benchmark of 4.16%.
Late-stage delinquencies declined to a six-month low: Serious delinquencies (90-plus days past due but not in foreclosure) fell to 570,000, extending the seasonal improvement that began in March.
New default activity declined: New default volumes have stabilized in recent months, and new FHA defaults were down 15% year over year in June, their largest annual decline in more than four years.
Roll rates improved across early delinquency stages: The number of borrowers becoming 30- and 60-days delinquent fell in June on both a monthly and annual basis.
Foreclosure activity continues to slowly trend higher: The share of mortgages in active foreclosure reached 0.53% in June, the highest level in six years, as foreclosure activity continued to normalize. Foreclosure starts hit a six-year high, and foreclosure sales were up 16% from a year ago, though they remained 46% below pre-pandemic levels.
Prepayment speeds eased: Single-month mortality (SMM) eased 2 bps to 0.77%, a five-month low, as mortgage rates remained elevated, though June’s SMM remained 12 bps above year-ago levels.

“High levels of homeowner equity continue to strengthen the market and help many distressed borrowers avoid foreclosure,” said Bob Hart, President of Mortgage Technology at ICE. “Still, early foreclosure activity bears watching, making timely data and proven servicing tools more important than ever. ICE’s McDash loan-level performance data is relied upon by many of the industry’s leading participants to monitor portfolio performance and model default risk, while our Loss Mitigation solution helps servicers improve borrower outcomes by executing workout strategies more efficiently while supporting compliance.”

Data as of June 30, 2026

Total U.S. loan delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure): 3.55%

Month-over-month change: 1.41%

Year-over-year change: 5.96%

Total U.S. foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate: 0.53%

Month-over-month change: 3.98%

Year-over-year change: 39.26%

Total U.S. foreclosure starts: 43,000

Month-over-month change: 29.03%

Year-over-year change: 39.69%

Monthly prepayment rate (SMM): 0.77%

Month-over-month change: -2.41%

Year-over-year change: 17.71%

Foreclosure sales: 7,300

Month-over-month change: 3.64%

Year-over-year change: 15.54%

Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 1,961,000

Month-over-month change: 29,000

Year-over-year change: 127,000

Number of properties that are 90 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 570,000

Month-over-month change: -6,000

Year-over-year change: 104,000

Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: 292,000

Month-over-month change: 11,000

Year-over-year change: 84,000

Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure: 2,253,000

Month-over-month change: 40,000

Year-over-year change: 211,000

Top 5 States by Non-Current* Percentage
Mississippi:	8.41%
Louisiana:	8.37%
Indiana:	6.30%
Alabama:	6.24%
Arkansas:	5.69%

Bottom 5 States by Non-Current* Percentage
California:	2.40%
Hawaii:	2.35%
Washington:	2.24%
Montana:	2.23%
Idaho:	2.09%

Top 5 States by 90+ Days Delinquent Percentage
Mississippi:	2.53%
Louisiana:	2.29%
Alabama:	1.84%
Georgia:	1.62%
Indiana:	1.61%

Top 5 States by 12-Month Change in Non-Current* Percentage
Wyoming:	-3.40%
New York:	-1.19%
Montana:	1.25%
Hawaii:	1.50%
North Dakota:	3.08%

Bottom 5 States by 12-Month Change in Non-Current* Percentage
Indiana:	20.06%
Colorado:	19.32%
Kentucky	17.90%
Ohio:	17.55%
Michigan:	15.80%

*Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a percent of active loans in that state.
Notes:
	1)	Totals are extrapolated based on ICE’s loan-level database of mortgage assets.
	2)	All whole numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand, except foreclosure starts and sales, which are rounded to the nearest hundred.

The company will provide a more in-depth review of this data in its monthly Mortgage Monitor report, which includes an analysis of data supplemented by detailed charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations. The Mortgage Monitor report will be available online at https://www.icemortgagetechnology.com/resources/data-reports.

For more information about gaining access to ICE’s loan-level database, please send an email to ICE-MortgageMonitor@ice.com.

About Intercontinental Exchange

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE) is a Fortune 500 company that designs, builds and operates digital networks that connect people to opportunity. We provide financial technology and data services across major asset classes helping our customers access mission-critical workflow tools that increase transparency and efficiency. ICE’s futures, equity, and options exchanges – including the New York Stock Exchange – and clearing houses help people invest, raise capital and manage risk. We offer some of the world’s largest markets to trade and clear energy and environmental products. Our fixed income, data services and execution capabilities provide information, analytics and platforms that help our customers streamline processes and capitalize on opportunities. At ICE Mortgage Technology, we are transforming U.S. housing finance, from initial consumer engagement through loan production, closing, registration and the long-term servicing relationship. Together, ICE transforms, streamlines and automates industries to connect our customers to opportunity.

Trademarks of ICE and/or its affiliates include Intercontinental Exchange, ICE, ICE block design, NYSE and New York Stock Exchange. Information regarding additional trademarks and intellectual property rights of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. and/or its affiliates is located here. Key Information Documents for certain products covered by the EU Packaged Retail and Insurance-based Investment Products Regulation can be accessed on the relevant exchange website under the heading “Key Information Documents (KIDS).”

Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 – Statements in this press release regarding ICE's business that are not historical facts are "forward-looking statements" that involve risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of additional risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, see ICE's Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, including, but not limited to, the risk factors in ICE's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, as filed with the SEC on February 5, 2026.

Category: Mortgage Technology

Source: Intercontinental Exchange