Federal Government Shutdown Freezes More Than Funds as Local Housing Markets with High Share of Fed Employees Feel Impacts

Rhea-AI Summary

Realtor.com (NWS) reports early, localized housing impacts from the federal government shutdown beginning Oct 1, 2025. Markets with high shares of federal workers—Washington, D.C.; Virginia Beach; Oklahoma City; Baltimore—showed month-over-month pullbacks in new listings and page views (e.g., D.C. new listings -13.9% MoM; page views -11.5%).

Nationally, October metrics were: median list price $424,200 (flat YoY), active listings 1,100,001 (+15.3% YoY), median days on market 63 (+5 days YoY), and 20.2% of listings had price reductions.

Positive

• Active listings 1,100,001 (+15.3% YoY)
• Inventory topped 1 million for sixth consecutive month
• Median list price largely flat at $424,200 (0.4% YoY)

Negative

• Price-reduced share 20.2% (+1.6 percentage points YoY)
• Median days on market 63 (+5 days YoY)
• Washington, D.C. new listings -13.9% MoM and page views -11.5% MoM

Insights

Housing Market Economist

Localized, modest housing slowdown in metros with high federal employment; national metrics remain largely steady.

The data show measurable but limited pullback where federal jobs concentrate: Washington, D.C. reports a 11.0% share of federal employment and a -13.9% month-over-month drop in new listings, while Realtor.com page views per property fell roughly -11.5% in D.C., and between -8.6% and -10.7% in other high-federal metros. Nationally, core indicators remain near recent trends: median list price sits at $424,200, active listings at ~1,100,001, and median days on market at 63 days, showing no abrupt national dislocation.

Risks and dependencies are straightforward and limited by the facts reported. The shifts in high-federal metros are modest and consistent with seasonality for price and time-on-market changes; inventory growth slowed but still shows a 15.3% year-over-year gain. The report ties the localized softness to ongoing uncertainty from the shutdown without asserting broader national impacts; longer-term effects are conditional on the shutdown duration and are not quantified in the data.

Watchables and horizon: monitor month-over-month new listings and page-view trends in the cited metros over the next 1–3 months to see if the localized declines deepen or reverse. Also track pending listings and price-reduction share, which is already elevated at 20.2%, for signs of material deterioration in demand or faster seller accommodation.

Nationally, in September, the Median List Price Was $424,200, Homes Spent an Average of 63 Days on Market and 20.2% of Listings had Price Reductions

AUSTIN, Texas, Oct. 30, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- As the federal government shutdown that began on October 1 continues, new data from Realtor.com^®'s October Monthly Housing Report shows early signs of a pause in housing activity in markets with the highest shares of federal employees. While most national housing trends have shown little change so far this fall, housing markets where federal workers make up a larger share of the local labor force—including Washington, D.C., Virginia Beach, and Baltimore—are seeing subtle shifts in buyer and seller behavior as uncertainty weighs on household confidence.

"At this stage, the housing market effects of the federal shutdown appear localized and modest," said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for Realtor.com^®. "In markets like Washington, D.C., Virginia Beach, Oklahoma City, and Baltimore, where many households rely on federal employment, we're seeing buyers take a brief step back as uncertainty persists. However, home prices and inventory trends in these areas continue to move in line with broader national and regional patterns, suggesting that the overall market remains steady for now."

Federal employment is most concentrated in the Washington, D.C. metro, where 11.0% of employed residents work for the federal government, followed by Virginia Beach (7.0%), Oklahoma City (4.2%), and Baltimore (3.7%). In these metros, there has been a modest slowdown in new listings (D.C. -13.9% (month-over-month changes in October compared to November), Virginia Beach -5.1%, Oklahoma City -1.4%, and Baltimore -2.4%)  and a sharper decline in home search activity since the start of October (D.C. -11.5%, Virginia Beach -10.7%, -8.6%, and Baltimore -9.7%), suggesting that potential buyers are pausing their search while paychecks and job security remain uncertain. While sellers in these metros are also pulling back slightly, overall housing supply remains in line with seasonal patterns seen elsewhere across the country.

Other key housing metrics like median list prices, inventory levels, and time on market have shown little movement or no clear departure from the broader regional and national trends. For example, while median list prices per square foot slightly declined month-over-month in D.C., Virginia Beach, and Baltimore, those drops are consistent with typical fall seasonality rather than evidence of shutdown-driven softening.

Table One: Government Shutdown Impacts on the Metros with the Largest Share of Federal Workers

Geography	New Listings	Realtor.com Page Views Per Property	Active Listings	Pending Listings	Median List Price	Median List Price, Per Sq. Ft.	Median Days On Market
	All Values Month-Over-Month Changes, From Sept to Oct. 2025
DC	-13.9 %	-11.5 %	0.3 %	0.4 %	-0.9 %	-0.3 %	0
VA Beach	-5.1 %	-10.7 %	-2.0 %	-7.3 %	-0.7 %	-0.1 %	1
Okla. City	-1.4 %	-8.6 %	1.7 %	-2.3 %	-0.2 %	-0.1 %	4
Baltimore	-2.4 %	-9.7 %	1.3 %	-2.8 %	-0.6 %	-0.8 %	3
South	1.6 %	-5.9 %	0.3 %	-3.6 %	-0.9 %	-0.6 %	0
National Avg.	-2.7 %	-6.2 %	0.0 %	-3.3 %	-0.2 %	-0.8 %	1

"While the current data points to only mild, localized effects, the longer the shutdown persists, the more likely it is that these markets and potentially others with smaller shares of federal workers could see more meaningful impacts on buyer demand, seller activity, and transaction timelines," added Hale.

Buyers Gain Options, but Inventory Growth Continues to Slow

Homebuyers found more options in October, as the number of actively listed homes rose 15.3% compared to the same time last year, marking the 24th consecutive month of year-on-year inventory gains. However, active listing growth has slowed in each of the last 5 months (down from 17.0% in September, 20.9% in August, 24.8% in July, 28.9% in June, and 31.5% in May).

The number of homes for sale topped 1 million for the sixth consecutive month, and is nearly unchanged since July. Still, nationwide inventory remains 13.2% below typical 2017–2019 levels, about the same as last month, a strong indication that the nationwide inventory recovery has stalled.

Inventory increased in all four major U.S. regions in October, but the pace of that growth has slowed recently: West: +17.4%, South: +17.0%, Midwest: +12.2%, and Northeast: +8.9%

At the metro level, all of the 50 largest markets recorded year-over-year inventory growth. The sharpest increases were seen in: Washington, DC* (+38.2%), Charlotte (+36.4%), and Las Vegas (+35.1%). Ten of the top 50 metros now exceed their pre-pandemic inventories by 25% or more – all in the South or West. The markets with greatest inventory relative to their pre-pandemic levels continue to be: Denver (+57.0%), San Antonio (+51.9%) and Austin (+44.9%).

Yet 17 of the top 50 metros still lag at least 25% below their pre-pandemic inventory norms. The three metros that have recovered least are: Hartford, CT (-74.0%), Chicago (-56.9%) and Providence (-54.5%).

"In October, homebuyers had more options to choose from, but the pace of inventory growth continued to cool after two years of steady gains," said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for Realtor.com^®. "Sellers are pricing with more flexibility as price cuts remain common, and homes are spending slightly more time on the market—signs that conditions are gradually shifting toward a more balanced market. Still, overall supply remains below pre-pandemic norms, keeping affordability and competition top of mind for many buyers."

Price Cuts Remain Elevated

Price cuts continue to be a key feature of the 2025 market; in October, 20.2% of home listings had price reductions—up 1.6 percentage points from last year, and up slightly since last month.

Price reductions in October have begun to show some more uniformity by region (around the national average), though the Northeast is an exception with price cuts on less than 15% of listings: Northeast: 14.5% of listings, Midwest: 20.2%, South: 21.3%, and West: 21.5%

Flows Slow for New Listings and Pending Sales

Newly listed homes grew 5.1% year-over-year, but were down 2.7% since last month and are now over 19% below their 2025 peak from April–both typical of seasonal trends. Despite inventory gains, buyer activity was more subdued. Pending home sales, listings under contract, fell by 1.9% year-over-year, returning to negative territory after a flat reading in September.

Pace of Market Moves Sideways, Remaining Slow

In October, the typical home spent 63 days on the market, which is 5 days longer than the same time last year. This marks the 19th straight month of homes taking longer to sell on a year-over-year basis, however, the gap has shrunk, falling below the one week mark for the first time since June. With a median of 63 days, homes are now selling 3 days faster than their October 2017-2019 norms after pacing in line with pre-pandemic norms in July through September. In short, time on market has returned to more historical normal levels, despite the fact that inventory still lags behind.

All four regions saw year-over-year increases in time on market, reflecting broader cooling trends: West: +8 days, South: +5 days, Midwest: +2 days and Northeast: +2 days. However, relative to pre-pandemic norms, only the West is seeing slower sales: West: 11 days slower, South: 1 day faster, Midwest: 14 days faster, and Northeast: 19 days faster.

List Prices Remain Flat Nationally, But Fall Slightly In South and West

In September, the national median list price was $424,200, up 0.4% from last year and flat since last month. Price per square foot—a gauge of home values that accounts for the size of homes on the market— fell slightly (down 0.5% YoY and -0.8% MoM).

Since October 2019, the typical list price has climbed 36.9%, while price per square foot is up 49.8%. These long-term increases have significantly affected affordability even before the impact of higher mortgage rates is considered. Most of these increases are a holdover from gains during the pandemic era. Since September 2022, the national median list price is unchanged, while price per square foot is up just 3.0% – despite a 46.1% increase in inventory and the median home staying on market for 13 days longer

Table Two: October 2025 Housing Metrics – National (*For metro stats, see Table table overview below)

Metric	Oct. 2025	Change over Sept. 2025 (MoM)	Change over Oct. 2024 (YoY)	Change over Oct. 2019	Change over Oct. 2022
Median listing price	$424,200	-0.2 %	0.4 %	36.9 %	-0.2 %
Active listings	1,100,001	0.0 %	15.3 %	-9.0 %	46.1 %
New listings	384,264	-2.7 %	5.1 %	-10.0 %	6.7 %
Median days on market	63	1	5	-2	13
Share of active listings with price reductions	20.2 %	0.4	1.6	2.9	-1.3
Median List Price Per Sq.Ft.	$225	-0.8 %	-0.5 %	49.8 %	3.0 %

 

Metro	Active Listing Count, YoY	New Listing Count, YoY	Median List Price	Median List Price, YoY	Median List Price Per SF, YoY	Median Days on Market, Y- Y (Days)	Price Reduced Share	Price-Reduced Share, YoY (Percentage Points)
Atlanta-Sandy Springs- Roswell, GA	16.6 %	0.1 %	$415,000	0.9 %	-0.9 %	8	24.0 %	1.4
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX	11.0 %	13.7 %	$489,859	-5.7 %	-5.1 %	7	26.7 %	2.5
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD	26.2 %	-12.0 %	$382,500	3.4 %	1.8 %	5	20.3 %	4.1
Birmingham, AL	11.9 %	-6.0 %	$299,900	0.7 %	0.7 %	1	20.0 %	3
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH	19.0 %	-0.5 %	$799,900	-4.5 %	-0.3 %	3	22.6 %	4.6
Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY	12.0 %	4.6 %	$267,450	-0.4 %	1.7 %	0	10.3 %	-0.1
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC	36.5 %	19.4 %	$438,348	2.1 %	-0.3 %	7	27.1 %	4.3
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN	-1.8 %	-4.8 %	$364,900	-1.4 %	0.0 %	1	17.0 %	1.2
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN	16.7 %	6.9 %	$339,950	3.0 %	2.4 %	1	22.9 %	2.4
Cleveland, OH	11.7 %	3.6 %	$259,900	4.0 %	4.0 %	1	21.2 %	1.9
Columbus, OH	24.2 %	13.6 %	$365,450	-0.9 %	-1.1 %	7	30.0 %	6.5
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX	13.7 %	-4.2 %	$425,000	-1.7 %	-1.9 %	8	28.0 %	2.1
Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO	17.0 %	-5.5 %	$594,500	-1.6 %	-3.2 %	11	31.3 %	0.9
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI	21.1 %	9.2 %	$268,000	-1.2 %	-0.6 %	2	20.2 %	2.9
Grand Rapids-Wyoming- Kentwood, MI	-0.6 %	5.1 %	$389,900	2.6 %	4.6 %	3	22.3 %	1.5
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT	7.1 %	-1.6 %	$439,450	7.2 %	-0.7 %	2	11.6 %	0
Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX	22.7 %	3.5 %	$358,000	-2.5 %	-1.9 %	6	20.0 %	3.5
Indianapolis-Carmel- Greenwood, IN	24.7 %	10.0 %	$320,000	-0.6 %	-0.3 %	4	31.1 %	3.7
Jacksonville, FL	2.8 %	-13.1 %	$388,950	-2.2 %	-3.1 %	6	26.4 %	0.5
Kansas City, MO-KS	21.4 %	2.2 %	$380,000	0.8 %	1.0 %	0	21.2 %	3.2
Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV	35.1 %	6.3 %	$471,975	-0.6 %	-1.5 %	8	25.0 %	3.3
Los Angeles-Long Beach- Anaheim, CA	17.9 %	1.6 %	$1,099,000	-4.4 %	-2.3 %	9	15.5 %	1.5
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN	26.7 %	15.3 %	$315,000	-0.3 %	2.7 %	1	23.5 %	0.4
Memphis, TN-MS-AR	13.1 %	10.7 %	$324,200	-2.4 %	-3.3 %	4	25.2 %	1.2
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL	13.0 %	-3.0 %	$499,999	-4.8 %	-2.8 %	13	16.5 %	-0.7
Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI	3.3 %	6.4 %	$389,800	1.9 %	4.5 %	0	20.0 %	2.9
Minneapolis-St. Paul- Bloomington, MN-WI	4.4 %	4.3 %	$420,000	-1.2 %	-0.2 %	-2	20.1 %	1.9
Nashville-Davidson-- Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN	17.9 %	6.7 %	$536,739	-0.8 %	0.0 %	7	21.3 %	2.7
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ	3.9 %	7.2 %	$762,450	-1.6 %	-3.5 %	1	9.6 %	0.6
Oklahoma City, OK	14.5 %	1.7 %	$319,400	2.3 %	0.1 %	8	23.8 %	-1.5
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL	10.5 %	-7.1 %	$419,990	-1.6 %	-2.6 %	12	23.1 %	-0.4
Philadelphia-Camden- Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD	10.5 %	-0.2 %	$379,973	1.3 %	0.9 %	-1	18.3 %	2.3
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ	23.4 %	6.5 %	$495,000	-4.7 %	-2.3 %	7	29.4 %	0.7
Pittsburgh, PA	8.0 %	8.2 %	$250,000	4.2 %	4.2 %	1	22.7 %	3.1
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA	13.6 %	-6.0 %	$599,000	-0.6 %	-1.8 %	10	30.9 %	1.9
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA	11.9 %	0.0 %	$582,450	5.0 %	3.3 %	0	15.1 %	-3.9
Raleigh-Cary, NC	30.6 %	9.7 %	$458,020	0.2 %	-0.7 %	9	25.4 %	7.5
Richmond, VA	22.8 %	7.5 %	$429,000	-2.5 %	0.8 %	4	18.3 %	2.9
Riverside-San Bernardino- Ontario, CA	10.9 %	2.1 %	$595,422	-0.6 %	-0.7 %	8	17.0 %	-0.1
Sacramento-Roseville- Folsom, CA	14.8 %	-3.2 %	$610,000	-2.8 %	-1.9 %	9	21.8 %	2.5
St. Louis, MO-IL	11.8 %	9.0 %	$295,900	-1.2 %	3.3 %	-1	19.4 %	2
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX	18.4 %	N/A	$329,000	-1.8 %	-3.1 %	4	26.5 %	2
San Diego-Chula Vista- Carlsbad, CA	12.6 %	N/A	$927,000	-5.1 %	-2.6 %	5	18.1 %	0.3
San Francisco-Oakland- Fremont, CA	2.3 %	-1.8 %	$954,500	-4.0 %	-4.2 %	4	15.4 %	0.7
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA	9.5 %	-6.0 %	$1,381,500	-0.9 %	-1.4 %	5	15.1 %	2
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA	28.1 %	5.5 %	$762,343	0.6 %	-0.2 %	4	22.1 %	3.9
Tampa-St. Petersburg- Clearwater, FL	17.9 %	-4.5 %	$409,000	2.3 %	1.0 %	7	26.7 %	1.7
Tucson, AZ	20.8 %	10.9 %	$385,000	-1.9 %	-1.9 %	7	23.7 %	3.7
Virginia Beach-Chesapeake- Norfolk, VA-NC	10.3 %	1.6 %	$407,000	2.9 %	2.6 %	1	22.2 %	1.5
Washington-Arlington- Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV	38.2 %	-8.4 %	$594,500	-0.8 %	-4.0 %	4	18.6 %	3.9

Methodology

Realtor.com^® housing data as of October 2025. Listings include the active inventory of existing single-family homes and condos/townhomes/row homes/co-ops for the given level of geography on Realtor.com^®; new construction is excluded unless listed via an MLS that provides listing data to Realtor.com^®. Realtor.com^® data history goes back to July 2016. The 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas as defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB-202301) and Claritas 2025 estimates of household counts.

Beginning with our April 2025 report, we have transitioned to a revised national pending home sales data series that applies enhanced cleaning methods to improve consistency and accuracy over time. While the insights and commentary in this report reflect the new series, the downloadable data remains based on our legacy automated pipeline. As a result, there may be slight differences between the report figures and those in the national download file as we transition.

With the release of its January 2025 housing trends report, Realtor.com^® has restated data points for some previous months. As a result of these changes, some of the data released since January 2025 will not be directly comparable with previous data releases (files downloaded before January 2025) and Realtor.com^® economics research reports.

About Realtor.com^®

Realtor.com^® pioneered online real estate and has been at the forefront for over 25 years, connecting buyers, sellers, and renters with trusted insights, professional guidance and powerful tools to help them find their perfect home. Recognized as the No. 1 site trusted by real estate professionals, Realtor.com^® is a valued partner, delivering consumer connections and a robust suite of marketing tools to support business growth. Realtor.com^® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc.

Media contact: Mallory Micetich, press@realtor.com

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SOURCE Realtor.com

FAQ

How is the Oct 2025 federal government shutdown affecting housing markets with many federal workers (NWS)?

Markets with high federal-worker shares (e.g., Washington, D.C.; Virginia Beach; Baltimore) saw MoM declines in new listings and page views, suggesting buyers and sellers paused activity.

What were the national October 2025 housing highlights in Realtor.com data (NWS)?

Median list price $424,200 (flat YoY), active listings 1,100,001 (+15.3% YoY), median days on market 63 (+5 days YoY), and 20.2% of listings had price reductions.

Did inventory increase or decrease nationally in Oct 2025 (NWS)?

Active inventory rose 15.3% year-over-year and exceeded 1 million listings for the sixth month, though inventory growth has slowed recently.

Are home prices falling because of the shutdown according to the Oct 30, 2025 report (NWS)?

No broad price collapse: median list price remained roughly flat nationally, and small per-square-foot declines in some metros align with typical fall seasonality.

How common were price cuts in Oct 2025 and which regions saw the highest share (NWS)?

Overall 20.2% of listings had price reductions; the West and South had the highest shares (~21%), while the Northeast was below the national average (~14.5%).