Olin Updates Fourth Quarter 2025 Outlook

Rhea-AI Summary

Olin (NYSE: OLN) updated its fourth-quarter 2025 outlook on Jan 8, 2026, cutting expected adjusted EBITDA to approximately $67 million from a prior range of $110–$130 million. The shortfall was driven mainly by Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls due to an extended planned maintenance turnaround, unplanned downtime at the Freeport, Texas site, and weaker pipeline chlorine demand. The Freeport site has returned to normal operations. Management emphasized safety, cost reductions, and a value-first commercial approach.

Positive

• Freeport operations returned to normal, reducing ongoing disruption risk
• Updated outlook provided transparently to investors

Negative

• Adjusted EBITDA revised down to approximately $67 million from $110–$130 million
• Extended planned maintenance and unplanned downtime at Freeport materially reduced Q4 results
• Lower-than-expected pipeline chlorine demand contributed to the earnings shortfall
• Forward-looking non-GAAP to GAAP reconciliation is omitted due to unavailable inputs

News Market Reaction

+5.27%

3 alerts

+5.27% News Effect

+4.4% Peak Tracked

+$129M Valuation Impact

$2.57B Market Cap

1.4x Rel. Volume

On the day this news was published, OLN gained 5.27%, reflecting a notable positive market reaction. Argus tracked a peak move of +4.4% during that session. Our momentum scanner triggered 3 alerts that day, indicating moderate trading interest and price volatility. This price movement added approximately $129M to the company's valuation, bringing the market cap to $2.57B at that time.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Key Figures

Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA outlook: $67 million Prior Q4 2025 EBITDA guidance low end: $110 million Prior Q4 2025 EBITDA guidance high end: $130 million

3 metrics

Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA outlook $67 million Updated fourth quarter 2025 guidance

Prior Q4 2025 EBITDA guidance low end $110 million Previous fourth quarter 2025 outlook

Prior Q4 2025 EBITDA guidance high end $130 million Previous fourth quarter 2025 outlook

Market Reality Check

Price: $23.63 Vol: Volume 2,504,444 is 11% a...

normal vol

$23.63 Last Close

Volume Volume 2,504,444 is 11% above 20-day average 2,259,444, indicating elevated pre-news activity. normal

Technical Price 21.43 is trading slightly below 200-day MA at 21.63, reflecting a subdued longer-term trend.

Peers on Argus

OLN fell about 4% while key chemical peers were mixed: CE -4.28%, HUN -1.83%, BA...

OLN fell about 4% while key chemical peers were mixed: CE -4.28%, HUN -1.83%, BAK -2.68%, but MEOH +1.51% and TROX +1.2%. This pattern points to a company-specific move rather than a uniform sector rotation.

Historical Context

4 past events · Latest: Nov 11 (Positive)

Pattern 4 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Nov 11	Strategic partnership	Positive	+1.3%	Long-term EDC supply deal with Braskem to support vinyls strategy.
Oct 27	Earnings results	Positive	-0.2%	Return to profitability and Q4 EBITDA guidance with clean hydrogen credit benefit.
Sep 26	Earnings call setup	Neutral	+2.0%	Announcement of Q3 2025 earnings call and results release timing.
Jul 28	Earnings results	Negative	+5.1%	Challenging Q2 2025 with net loss and lower adjusted EBITDA despite higher sales.

Pattern Detected

Recent history shows OLN often diverging on earnings reports, with negative or challenging results sometimes met by positive share moves, while strategic or partnership news has aligned more closely with price reactions.

Recent Company History

Over the past six months, OLN has navigated mixed fundamentals. Q2 2025 results on Jul 28 showed a small net loss and weaker adjusted EBITDA, yet the stock rose over 5%. Q3 2025 results on Oct 27 marked a return to profitability and guided Q4 adjusted EBITDA to $110M–$130M, but shares were essentially flat. A Q3 earnings call announcement in late September drew a modest gain. In November, a strategic vinyls partnership with Braskem, supporting Olin’s global vinyls strategy, saw a positive price reaction, highlighting investor interest in structural value initiatives.

Market Pulse Summary

The stock moved +5.3% in the session following this news. A strong positive reaction would have cont...

Analysis

The stock moved +5.3% in the session following this news. A strong positive reaction would have contrasted with this downward revision, as Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA was updated to $67M versus prior guidance of $110–$130M. Historically, OLN has sometimes risen even on challenging earnings, suggesting traders may focus on long-term strategy or prior partnerships. However, operational issues and demand softness described in this update could limit follow-through if optimism fades.

Key Terms

adjusted EBITDA, non-GAAP financial measure, depreciation and amortization, restructuring charges

4 terms

adjusted EBITDA financial

"Olin now expects fourth quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $67 million"

Adjusted EBITDA is a way companies measure how much money they make from their core operations, like running a business, by removing certain costs or income that aren’t part of regular business activities. It helps investors see how well a company is doing without distractions from unusual expenses or gains, making it easier to compare companies or track performance over time.

non-GAAP financial measure financial

"Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure."

A non-GAAP financial measure is a way companies present their financial results that excludes certain expenses or income to show how they believe their core business is performing. It matters because it can give a clearer picture of how the company is really doing, but it can also be used to make results look better than they actually are.

depreciation and amortization financial

"net income (loss) plus an add-back for depreciation and amortization, interest expense"

Depreciation and amortization are accounting methods that spread the cost of long-term assets over the years they help generate revenue: depreciation applies to physical items like equipment, while amortization applies to intangible items like patents or software. Investors watch these charges because they reduce reported profit without using cash right away, so comparing them to cash flow helps reveal whether earnings come from real business performance or just accounting allocation — like spreading the price of a car or a license over many years.

restructuring charges financial

"other expense (income), restructuring charges (income), and certain other non-recurring items."

Restructuring charges are costs that a company pays when it changes how it operates, like closing factories or laying off employees. These expenses are often one-time and happen to help the company become more efficient in the long run. They matter because they can affect the company's profits and how investors see its future prospects.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

CLAYTON, Mo., Jan. 8, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Olin Corporation (NYSE: OLN), today announced an updated outlook for the fourth quarter 2025. Olin now expects fourth quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $67 million compared to the previous outlook of $110 to $130 million. Most of the earnings shortfall occurred within the Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls business, reflecting an extended planned maintenance turnaround and unplanned downtime at our Freeport, Texas operations, as well as lower-than-expected pipeline chlorine demand.

Ken Lane, President and Chief Executive Officer, said, "Late in the quarter, our Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls was impacted by a meaningful decline in chlorine demand as well as operational issues at our Freeport, Texas site related to a planned turnaround and interruption of raw material supply by a third party. Our Freeport, Texas site has returned to normal operations. In spite of these challenges, the Olin Team remains focused on operating our assets safely, delivering on our cost reduction targets and maintaining our disciplined value-first commercial approach."

COMPANY DESCRIPTION

Olin Corporation is a leading vertically integrated global manufacturer and distributor of chemical products and a leading U.S. manufacturer of ammunition. The chemical products produced include chlorine and caustic soda, vinyls, epoxies, chlorinated organics, bleach, hydrogen, and hydrochloric acid. Winchester's principal manufacturing facilities produce and distribute sporting ammunition, law enforcement ammunition, reloading components, small caliber military ammunition and components, industrial cartridges, and clay targets.

Visit www.olin.com for more information on Olin Corporation.

NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES

Olin's definition of Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) is net income (loss) plus an add-back for depreciation and amortization, interest expense (income), income tax expense (benefit), other expense (income), restructuring charges (income), and certain other non-recurring items. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure. Management believes that this measure is meaningful to investors as a supplemental financial measure to assess financial performance without regard to financing methods, capital structures, taxes, or historical cost basis. The use of non-GAAP financial measures is not intended to replace any measures of performance determined in accordance with GAAP and Adjusted EBITDA presented may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies.

Reconciliation of forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are omitted from this release because Olin is unable to provide such reconciliations without the use of unreasonable efforts. This inability results from the inherent difficulty in forecasting generally and quantifying certain projected amounts that are necessary for such reconciliations. In particular, sufficient information is not available to calculate certain adjustments required for such reconciliations, including interest expense (income), income tax expense (benefit), other expense (income) and restructuring charges (income).

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

This communication includes forward-looking statements. These statements relate to analyses and other information that are based on management's beliefs, certain assumptions made by management, forecasts of future results, and current expectations, estimates and projections about the markets and economy in which we and our various segments operate. The statements contained in this communication that are not statements of historical fact may include forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties.

The updated fourth quarter 2025 outlook included in this press release is preliminary, unaudited and subject to completion, and may change as a result of management's continued review, is subject to the finalization of quarter-end financial and accounting procedure and represents management estimates that constitute forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties. We have used the words "anticipate," "intend," "may," "expect," "believe," "should," "plan," "outlook," "project," "estimate," "forecast," "optimistic," "target," and variations of such words and similar expressions in this communication to identify such forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond our control. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from those matters expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of future events, new information or otherwise.

The risks, uncertainties and assumptions involved in our forward-looking statements, many of which are discussed in more detail in our filings with the SEC, including without limitation the "Risk Factors" section of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, and our Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and other reports furnished or filed with the SEC, include, but are not limited to, the following:

Business, Industry and Operational Risks

• sensitivity to economic, business and market conditions in the United States and overseas, including economic instability or a downturn in the sectors served by us;
  
  
• declines in average selling prices for our products and the supply/demand balance for our products, including the impact of excess industry capacity or an imbalance in demand for our chlor alkali products;
  
  
• unsuccessful execution of our operating model, which prioritizes Electrochemical Unit (ECU) margins over sales volumes;
  
  
• failure to control costs and inflation impacts or failure to achieve targeted cost reductions;
  
  
• our reliance on a limited number of suppliers for specified feedstock and services and our reliance on third-party transportation;
  
  
• availability of and/or higher-than-expected costs of raw material, energy, transportation, and/or logistics;
  
  
• the occurrence of unexpected manufacturing interruptions and outages, including those occurring as a result of labor disruptions and production hazards;
  
  
• exposure to physical risks associated with climate-related events or increased severity and frequency of severe weather events;
  
  
• the failure or an interruption, including cyber-attacks, of our information technology systems;
  
  
• risks associated with our international sales and operations, including economic, political or regulatory changes;
  
  
• failure to identify, attract, develop, retain and motivate qualified employees throughout the organization and ability to manage executive officer and other key senior management transitions;
  
  
• our inability to complete future acquisitions or joint venture transactions or successfully integrate them into our business;
  
  
• adverse conditions in the credit and capital markets, limiting or preventing our ability to borrow or raise capital;
  
  
• weak industry conditions affecting our ability to comply with the financial maintenance covenants in our senior credit facility;
  
  
• our indebtedness and debt service obligations;
  
  
• the effects of any declines in global equity markets on asset values and any declines in interest rates or other significant assumptions used to value the liabilities in, and funding of, our pension plans;
  
  
• our long-range plan assumptions not being realized, causing a non-cash impairment charge of long-lived assets;

Legal, Environmental and Regulatory Risks

• changes in, or failure to comply with, legislation or government regulations or policies, including changes regarding our ability to manufacture or use certain products and changes within the international markets in which we operate;
  
  
• new regulations or public policy changes regarding the transportation of hazardous chemicals and the security of chemical manufacturing facilities;
  
  
• unexpected outcomes from legal or regulatory claims and proceedings;
  
  
• costs and other expenditures in excess of those projected for environmental investigation and remediation or other legal proceedings;
  
  
• various risks associated with our Lake City U.S. Army Ammunition Plant contract and performance under other governmental contracts; and
  
  
• failure to effectively manage environmental, social and governance issues and related regulations, including climate change and sustainability.

All of our forward-looking statements should be considered in light of these factors. In addition, other risks and uncertainties not presently known to us or that we consider immaterial could affect the accuracy of our forward-looking statements.

2026-02

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SOURCE Olin Corporation

FAQ

What did Olin (OLN) announce about fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA on Jan 8, 2026?

Olin said it now expects Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $67 million, down from a prior $110–$130 million range.

Why did Olin (OLN) cut its Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA forecast?

Management cited an extended planned maintenance turnaround, unplanned downtime at the Freeport, Texas site, and lower pipeline chlorine demand.

Is Olin's Freeport, Texas site operating after the Q4 2025 disruptions?

Yes; the company said the Freeport site has returned to normal operations.

How does the Q4 2025 outlook change affect Olin's financial transparency?

The company updated guidance but noted the forward-looking non-GAAP to GAAP reconciliation is omitted because required inputs are unavailable.

What operational priorities did Olin (OLN) highlight after the Q4 2025 revision?

Olin emphasized operating assets safely, delivering on cost reduction targets, and maintaining a disciplined value-first commercial approach.