Small, Mid-Sized Business Owners Hit Record Levels of Optimism Despite Lower Profit Expectations, Inflation Concerns

Rhea-AI Summary

PNC Financial Services (NYSE:PNC) released its Fall 2025 semi-annual survey of small and mid-sized business owners, revealing record-high optimism levels despite economic challenges. A survey-record 84% of business owners are optimistic about their business prospects, up from 78% in spring.

Key findings show 58% of owners are optimistic about the national economy, while 46% are extremely concerned about inflation risks. The survey indicates declining profit expectations, with only 48% expecting increased profits, down from 57% previously. Business owners anticipate a mean price increase of 4.8% for customers, up from 3.8% last spring.

Notable challenges include supply chain issues affecting 48% of businesses, reduced workforce expansion plans at 13% (lowest since Fall 2023), and 23% of owners expecting lower cash reserves next year.

Positive

• Record-high 84% business owner optimism about their own business prospects
• Increased optimism about national economy at 58%, up from 50% in spring
• Survey-high 44% optimism about global economy

Negative

• Profit expectations declined to 48% from 57% six months ago
• Only 13% plan to increase full-time employees, lowest since Fall 2023
• 23% expect lower cash reserves next year, up from 17% a year ago
• 51% anticipate higher supplier prices in next six months
• 46% extremely concerned about inflation impact

Insights

Economic Analyst

PNC survey shows record business optimism despite inflation concerns; signals economic resilience but highlights persistent cost pressures affecting profitability.

PNC's latest small business survey reveals a fascinating economic contradiction. Despite heightened inflation concerns and lowered profit expectations, business owner optimism has reached a 23-year record high at 84%, up from 78% in spring. This disconnect between sentiment and financial reality provides crucial signals about the current economic landscape.

The survey exposes several important trends: inflation remains the top business risk with 46% of owners extremely concerned, 44% believe a recession is likely within 12 months, and just 48% expect increased profits (down from 57% previously). Only 13% plan workforce expansion—the lowest level since Fall 2023.

Most telling is the sharp rise in non-labor cost pressures driving price increases. 54% of owners cite non-labor costs as the reason for price hikes, up significantly from 35% six months ago. This indicates the inflation challenge has shifted from wage pressures to broader input costs, with 51% of businesses anticipating supplier price increases averaging 4.4%.

The 23% of businesses expecting lower cash reserves next year (up from 17%) signals potential liquidity constraints that could limit growth investments. These mixed signals suggest businesses are maintaining positive outlooks while simultaneously preparing for challenging conditions—a defensive optimism that reflects the complex crosscurrents in today's economy.

• A survey-high 84% of owners are optimistic about prospects for their own business, up from the spring (78%) and last fall (76%).
• The top potential risk owners foresee for their business over the next six months is inflation; nearly half (46%) are extremely concerned.
• Half (51%) of business owners are bracing for higher prices from their suppliers in the next six months.

PITTSBURGH, Sept. 3, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Despite concerns over inflation, supplier price increases and recent declining demand and profit expectations, PNC's latest semi-annual survey of small and mid-sized business owners found a 23-year record-high share of business owners (84%) optimistic about the prospects for their own business. The semi-annual survey, which concluded Aug. 5, shows those numbers trending upward from the spring (78%) and last fall (76%).

In another survey record high, 58% of business owners are optimistic about the national economy, up from last spring (50%) and near the level recorded last fall (56%). Looking globally, another survey high 44% of business are optimistic, with newer business owners (those with less than 10 years of tenure) being the most optimistic about the global economy.

"The very strong results from PNC's Fall 2025 semi-annual survey of small and mid-sized business owners reflect good U.S. economic conditions heading into autumn with stock prices near record highs, continued job growth, and solid consumer demand," said PNC Chief Economist Gus Faucher. "But risks to the economy are elevated, coming from tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding them, weaker job gains, and high interest rates. PNC expects continued economic growth over the next year, but at a slower pace, with higher inflation. Some relief will come later this year as the Federal Reserve starts to lower interest rates in response to softer job growth."

According to the survey, the top potential risk owners foresee for their business over the next six months is inflation, with 46% stating they are extremely concerned, and 44% believing a recession in the next 12 months is likely, with 16% considering it "extremely likely," and 28% feeling it is "somewhat likely." Less than half (48%) expect their profits to increase in the next six months, a fall from 57% measured both last spring and a year ago. Among those business owners expecting to increase customer prices, the mean percentage is 4.8%, up from 3.8% last spring and similar to 4.7% from a year ago.

     Other findings in the survey include:

• Fewer Expect to Expand Workforce: Just 13% expect to increase the number of full-time employees in the business, the lowest level since Fall 2023. Moreover, this is down from a peak of 21% in the spring of 2024 and 18% a year ago.
• Labor Not Driving Prices: A majority (54%) of business owners attribute customer price hikes to keeping up with non-labor costs, up sharply compared to six months (35%) and a year ago (37%).
• Taking Stock Amid Supply Chain Challenges: Overall, inventory expectations have remained steady with over half (56%) expecting the level to stay the same, little changed from both six months and a year ago (52%). Nearly half of business owners (48%) are currently facing a supply chain challenge. The same portion (48%) of businesses say higher tariffs in 2025 increased their suppliers' prices in 2025, while few (1%) believe tariffs decreased supplier prices. More than half (51%) are bracing for higher prices from their suppliers in the next six months. Among the majority (51%) of business owners expecting higher prices from their suppliers in the next six months, the overall mean expected consumer price change is a 4.4% price increase, up from six months ago (3.2%) and little changed from last fall (4.5%).
• Cash Crunch: 23% of business owners are expecting their cash reserves to be lower next year than they are now, up significantly from 17% a year ago.

The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (NYSE: PNC) is one of the largest diversified financial services institutions in the United States, organized around its customers and communities for strong relationships and local delivery of retail and business banking including a full range of lending products; specialized services for corporations and government entities, including corporate banking, real estate finance and asset-based lending; wealth management and asset management. For information about PNC, visit www.pnc.com.

METHODOLOGY
The PNC Economic Outlook survey was conducted by telephone from 7/1/2025 to 8/5/2025, among small and mid-sized business owners/leaders with self-reported revenue of $100,000 to $250 million. 500 interviews were conducted nationally. Sampling error for the nationwide results is +/- 4.4% at the 95% confidence level. The survey was conducted by Artemis Strategy Group (www.ArtemisSG.com), a communications strategy research firm specializing in brand positioning and policy issues. The firm provides communications research and consulting to a range of public and private sector clients.

DISCLAIMER: This report was prepared for general information purposes only and is not intended as specific advice or recommendations. Any reliance upon this information is solely and exclusively at your own risk. NOTE: The sum of percentages may not add to the total due to rounding.

CONTACT:

Kristen Pillitteri
(412) 762-4550
media.relations@pnc.com

 

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SOURCE The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.

FAQ

What are the key findings from PNC's Fall 2025 small business survey?

The survey found a record-high 84% of business owners are optimistic about their business prospects, while 58% are optimistic about the national economy. However, 46% are extremely concerned about inflation.

How has small business hiring outlook changed in PNC's latest survey?

Only 13% of businesses plan to increase full-time employees, marking the lowest level since Fall 2023, down from 21% in spring 2024.

What percentage of businesses in PNC's survey expect profit increases?

48% of businesses expect their profits to increase in the next six months, down from 57% in both spring 2025 and fall 2024.

What are the main concerns for small businesses according to PNC's Fall 2025 survey?

The top concerns include inflation (46% extremely concerned), supplier price increases (51% expecting higher prices), and supply chain challenges (affecting 48% of businesses).

How much are businesses planning to increase prices according to PNC's survey?

Business owners expecting to increase customer prices plan a mean increase of 4.8%, up from 3.8% in spring 2025.