The Number of U.S. Homebuyers Just Dropped to a Record Low, Shifting the Market Further in Buyers' Favor

Redfin (NASDAQ:RKT) reports that in July 2026 there were an estimated 51.3% more U.S. home sellers than buyers, just below December’s record 51.8% surplus, shifting much of the country into buyer’s‑market territory.

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin (NASDAQ:RKT) reports that in July 2026 there were an estimated 51.3% more U.S. home sellers than buyers, just below December’s record 51.8% surplus, shifting much of the country into buyer’s‑market territory. Redfin defines buyer’s markets as having over 10% more sellers than buyers.

According to Redfin, there were about 966,752 buyers, down 2.5% month over month, and 1,462,921 sellers, down 0.3% to a one‑year low, creating a seller surplus of nearly half a million. Nearly 80% of major metros (39 of 49 analyzed) were buyer’s markets, led by Miami (154% more sellers than buyers), Nashville (151%), Houston (130%), San Antonio (116%) and Austin (112%). Just six metros, led by Nassau County, NY, remained seller’s markets, where prices rose faster—4.2% year over year versus 2.3% in buyer’s markets—indicating stronger buyer competition there.

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On Aug 13, the day this news came out, RKT closed 7.05% above the previous close. Argus tracked a peak move of +4.2% during that session. Our momentum scanner recorded 52 alerts for this stock that day. Relative volume reached 1.8x the daily average during tracking.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus for the Aug 13 session.

Key Figures

Seller surplus: 51.3% Prior record seller surplus: 51.8% Prior-month seller surplus: 47.9% +5 more

Seller surplus

51.3%

U.S. housing market in July

Prior record seller surplus

51.8%

December peak

Prior-month seller surplus

47.9%

June comparison

Homebuyers

966,752 buyers

U.S. market in July

Monthly buyer decline

2.5%

July versus June

Home sellers

1,462,921 sellers

U.S. market in July

Buyer’s markets

39 of 49 metro areas

Redfin metro analysis

Miami seller surplus

154%

Strongest buyer’s market in July

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Aug 12

5 events

1. Aug 12

   home sales report

   24h Move

   -1.9%

   July home sales declined and reached their lowest level in nearly two years.

2. Aug 06

   earnings report

   24h Move

   +3.8%

   Second-quarter results included higher revenue, profitability and third-quarter revenue guidance.

3. Aug 06

   pending sales report

   24h Move

   -4.6%

   Pending home sales declined as mortgage rates increased and affordability remained pressured.

4. Aug 05

   affordability report

   24h Move

   -1.8%

   Starter-home affordability improved for an eighth consecutive month despite persistent market affordability pressure.

5. Aug 05

   housing affordability report

   24h Move

   -1.8%

   Income requirements remained near a record high and affordability stayed below pre-2022 levels.

24h Move is the share-price change in the day after each event; other market factors may also have contributed.

Key Terms

buyer's market, seller's market

2 terms

buyer's market technical

"A market with a lot more sellers than buyers is considered a buyer's market."

A buyer's market is a market condition where there are more sellers than buyers, so prices tend to fall and purchasers have the upper hand when negotiating. For investors, it signals opportunities to buy assets at lower prices—like finding bargains at a crowded garage sale—but also can indicate weak demand or economic softness, which may affect long-term returns and the timing of buying decisions.

seller's market technical

"A market where there are over 10% fewer sellers than buyers as a seller's market."

A seller's market is a condition where demand for an asset or security exceeds the available supply, giving sellers the advantage to secure higher prices and quicker sales. Think of it like an auction with more buyers than items: investors face upward pressure on prices, reduced room to negotiate, and faster turnover, which can boost short-term returns but also raise valuation risk and lower opportunities to buy at a discount.

AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

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• Redfin reports sellers outnumbered buyers by 51% in July—just shy of December's record high—giving buyers more negotiating power
• Nearly 80% of major U.S. metros are now buyer's markets, led by Miami, Nashville and a trio of Texas cities

SEATTLE, Aug. 13, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- There were an estimated 51.3% more home sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market in July, just shy of December's peak of 51.8% and up from 47.9% the month before. That's according to a new report from Redfin, the real estate brokerage powered by Rocket.

Miami, Nashville and several parts of Texas are the nation's strongest buyer's markets, where sellers outnumber buyers by the widest margins.

When sellers outnumber buyers, buyers typically have more negotiating power because they have options. That's why a market with a lot more sellers than buyers is considered a buyer's market. Redfin defines a market where there are over 10% more sellers than buyers as a buyer's market and a market where there are over 10% fewer sellers than buyers as a seller's market. A market where the gap is plus or minus 10% is considered a balanced market.

It's only a buyer's market for people who can afford to buy. High housing costs and widespread economic uncertainty have caused many would-be buyers to back off in recent years, creating the imbalance of buyers and sellers we see today.

"Buyers are dropping out faster than sellers, giving the buyers who remain more options and more negotiating power," said Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin. "At the same time, uncertainty around whether the Fed will hike rates—and this summer's rising mortgage rates—are keeping many would-be buyers on the sidelines. That makes the stretch between now and Labor Day a potential sweet spot for people who need to move: Buyers have leverage, while motivated sellers may be willing to negotiate before the early-fall rush brings some buyers back to the market. This could be the best chance for buyers and sellers to meet in the middle."

Homebuying Demand Dropped to Lowest Level on Record

The number of homebuyers in the market fell to its lowest level on record in July. Nationwide, there were an estimated 966,752 buyers in the market, down 2.5% from the month before.

Meanwhile, there were an estimated 1,462,921 home sellers in the market. That's down 0.3% from a month earlier to the lowest level in a year—but there were still nearly half a million more sellers than buyers.

The seller surplus jumped from June to July because while fewer sellers entered the market, way fewer buyers entered the market. This isn't a story of surging supply so much as sluggish demand; buyers who can't stomach today's prices and mortgage rates are simply waiting on the sidelines, pushing most of the country into buyer's-market territory.

Homebuying demand fell in July largely because mortgage rates soared to their highest level in a year, straining affordability. Widespread economic and geopolitical uncertainty also deterred house hunters. Some prospective sellers pulled back as they took note of slow demand.

Miami Is the Strongest Buyer's Market, Followed By Nashville and Several Texas Metros

More than three-quarters of U.S. housing markets—39 of the 49 U.S. metro areas Redfin analyzed—are buyer's markets. Redfin analyzed the 50 most populous metros, and excluded Fort Lauderdale, FL due to insufficient data.

Miami was the nation's strongest buyer's market in July, with an estimated 154% more sellers than buyers. Next came Nashville, TN (151%), Houston (130%), San Antonio (116%) and Austin, TX (112%).

Miami, Nashville and Texas stand out because they combine the national affordability squeeze with local dynamics that have swelled seller ranks even further. Miami and Nashville saw a wave of new construction and investor activity during the pandemic boom, and that supply is now landing in a market where local buyers are increasingly priced out—particularly in Miami, where rising insurance costs, increasing HOA fees and climate risks have piled onto already-high prices. Houston, San Antonio and Austin, meanwhile, have some of the most active homebuilding pipelines in the country, and new-construction inventory continues to hit the market even as buyer demand cools, leaving sellers there with little leverage.

In Nashville, local Redfin agent Kristin Sanchez says house hunters are breathing a sigh of relief as the buyer's market continues through the summer. Buyers are able to take their time because they know they have the upper hand, and they're often able to get a good deal because sellers are willing to negotiate, Sanchez says. Compare that to a few years ago, when buyers would have likely competed against multiple offers for homes that sold within days.

There Are 6 Seller's Markets, Led By New York City Suburbs

Just six of the major U.S. metro areas Redfin analyzed were seller's markets in July. The metros that are neither seller's nor buyer's markets are considered "balanced" markets.

Nassau County, NY was the strongest seller's market, with 36% fewer sellers than buyers. The other seller's markets were Newark, NJ (-21%), Providence, RI (-17%), Milwaukee (-15%), New Brunswick, NJ (-13%) and Montgomery County, PA (-13%).

The seller's markets are mainly in places where construction of new homes has been constrained for years. In the greater New York City area, demand is also strong because they're close to a major job center. Milwaukee has a relatively strong housing market largely because it's affordable, with home prices below the national median.

Home-sale prices rose an average of 4.2% year over year across the six seller's markets in July. That's compared with a 2.3% increase across the 39 buyer's markets—a signal that in seller's markets, competition among buyers is pushing up home prices.

House Hunters' Leverage Grew in 34 of the 39 Buyer's Markets

Nearly all of the buyer's markets became stronger buyer's markets in July. The surplus of home sellers over buyers grew month over month in 34 of the 39 buyer's markets in the nation.

The surplus increased most in Miami, the strongest buyer's market, where there were 154% more home sellers than buyers in July, up from 134% the month before. The next-biggest monthly increase was in Seattle, where there were 65% more sellers than buyers in July, up from 46% in June. Fort Worth, TX rounds out the top three (86% more sellers than buyers, up from 67%).

Next are two metros that are among the three strongest buyer's markets: Nashville (151%, up from 135%), and Houston (130%, up from 114%).

House hunters lost negotiating power in just five of the buyer's markets. The surplus of sellers over buyers fell from June to July in West Palm Beach, Fl, San Antonio, Pittsburgh, Virginia Beach, VA and Dallas.

To view the full report, including methodology and metro-level insights, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/buyers-vs-sellers-july-2026

About Redfin
Redfin is a technology-driven real estate company with the country's most-visited real estate brokerage website. As part of Rocket Companies (NYSE: RKT), Redfin is creating an integrated homeownership platform from search to close to make the dream of homeownership more affordable and accessible for everyone. Redfin's clients can see homes first with on-demand tours, easily apply for a home loan with Rocket Mortgage, and save thousands in fees while working with a top local agent.

You can find more information about Redfin and get the latest housing market data and research at https://www.redfin.com/news. For more information about Rocket Companies, visit https://www.rocketcompanies.com.

 

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SOURCE Redfin

FAQ

AI-generated questions and answers. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

What did Redfin report about U.S. homebuyers and sellers in July 2026 for RKT-linked housing trends?

Redfin reported that U.S. home sellers outnumbered buyers by 51.3% in July 2026. According to Redfin, there were about 966,752 buyers and 1,462,921 sellers, creating a surplus of nearly half a million sellers and pushing most large metros into buyer’s‑market conditions.

How many U.S. housing markets were buyer’s markets in July 2026 according to Redfin and what does it imply for RKT investors?

Redfin found that 39 of 49 major U.S. metros were buyer’s markets in July 2026. According to Redfin, this means over three‑quarters of studied metros had at least 10% more sellers than buyers, generally giving active buyers more options and stronger negotiating leverage on price and terms.

Which cities were the strongest buyer’s markets in July 2026 in Redfin’s report connected to RKT?

Redfin identified Miami as the strongest buyer’s market in July 2026, with 154% more sellers than buyers. According to Redfin, it was followed by Nashville (151%), Houston (130%), San Antonio (116%) and Austin (112%), where abundant supply and affordability pressures limit seller leverage.

How low did U.S. homebuying demand fall in July 2026 and why is it important for RKT-focused housing analysis?

U.S. homebuying demand fell to its lowest recorded level in July 2026, with 966,752 estimated buyers. According to Redfin, demand dropped 2.5% month over month as mortgage rates hit a one‑year high and economic uncertainty discouraged buyers, widening the gap between buyers and sellers nationwide.

Where were the main seller’s markets in July 2026 according to Redfin, relevant to RKT housing exposure?

Redfin reported only six major metros as seller’s markets in July 2026, led by Nassau County, NY. According to Redfin, other seller’s markets included Newark, Providence, Milwaukee, New Brunswick and Montgomery County, PA, areas where limited new construction keeps inventory tight and supports faster price growth.

How did home-sale prices change in buyer’s versus seller’s markets in July 2026 in Redfin’s RKT-related housing study?

Home-sale prices rose faster in seller’s markets, averaging 4.2% year-over-year growth in July 2026. According to Redfin, prices in the 39 buyer’s markets increased 2.3% on average, suggesting stronger competitive pressure on buyers where inventory is relatively scarce compared with demand.