Home Sales Drop to Lowest Level in Nearly 2 Years, With Texas and Seattle Driving Decline

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin, powered by Rocket (NYSE:RKT), reported that U.S. home sales in July 2026 fell 4.1% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis, reaching their lowest level in nearly two years. Pending home sales declined 2.5% to their lowest level since December, while the median U.S. sale price rose 3.2% year over year to a record July level of $407,730. The monthly average 30‑year mortgage rate reached 6.54%.

Texas metros (San Antonio, Dallas, Fort Worth) and Seattle led annual sales declines, while West Palm Beach, San Francisco and Milwaukee saw sales growth. National new listings fell to their lowest level since October 2024, down 0.1% month over month, with total active listings down 0.3%. About 14% of pending sales fell through, the highest share since 2023.

Positive

• Median U.S. home price up 3.2% YoY to $407,730 in July
• Existing-home sales up 1% year over year despite monthly drop
• Strong sales growth in West Palm Beach (+17.1% YoY), San Francisco (+8.5%), Milwaukee (+7%)
• Average sale-to-list ratio improved to 96.5%, up 0.3 pts YoY

Negative

• U.S. homes sold down 4.1% MoM to 285,312, near 2-year low
• Pending home sales down 2.5% MoM and 0.7% YoY to 335,051
• New listings at lowest level since October 2024, down 0.1% MoM
• 14% of pending sales fell through, highest share since 2023
• Significant YoY sales drops in San Antonio (-12.6%), Dallas (-10%), Fort Worth (-9.9%)
• Seattle pending sales down 15.6% YoY, with median price down 3.6%

Market Context

RKT's recent news record included a 3.78% gain after Q2 results and a -4.62% move after prior housin...

Analysis

RKT's recent news record included a 3.78% gain after Q2 results and a -4.62% move after prior housing-demand data. That history frames this July report as demand-sensitive, with the effective S-3ASR and moderate short positioning as additional risks to monitor.

Key Figures

U.S. home sales change: -4.1% Pending home sales change: -2.5% Median sale price: $407,730 +5 more

8 metrics

U.S. home sales change -4.1% July month over month

Pending home sales change -2.5% July month over month

Median sale price $407,730 July; up 3.2% year over year

Average mortgage rate 6.54% Monthly average 30-year fixed rate in July

Failed sale agreements 14% July home-sale agreements; highest share since 2023

Seattle pending sales -15.6% Year over year in July

San Antonio home sales -12.6% Year over year in July

West Palm Beach home sales 17.1% Year over year in July

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Aug 06 (Positive)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	24h Move	Catalyst
Aug 06	Q2 earnings	Positive	+3.8%	Rocket reported higher revenue, profitability, liquidity and Q3 adjusted-revenue guidance.
Aug 06	Pending sales decline	Negative	-4.6%	Pending sales reached a five-month low as mortgage rates increased.
Aug 05	Starter-home affordability	Positive	-1.8%	Income required for a typical starter home declined for the eighth consecutive month.
Aug 05	Home affordability	Negative	-1.8%	Required income remained near a record high despite a narrower household-income gap.
Aug 04	Luxury neighborhood ranking	Positive	+3.1%	Park Slope ranked first as luxury listing views and prices increased.

24h Move is the share-price change in the day after each event; other market factors may also have contributed.

Pattern Detected

RKT's reactions aligned with the assessed direction of four of five recent news events, including both prior Redfin housing-demand reports.

Key Terms

pending home sales, seasonally adjusted annual rate, months of supply, sale-to-original-list-price ratio

4 terms

pending home sales technical

"Pending home sales, a real-time indicator of homebuying demand, fell 2.5%"

Pending home sales refer to homes that have been sold but where the transaction has not yet been finalized or closed. This measure indicates future activity in the housing market, helping investors gauge whether home buying is increasing or slowing down. Rising pending sales can suggest stronger demand, while falling figures may signal a slowdown in the market.

seasonally adjusted annual rate technical

"Existing-home sales, seasonally adjusted annual rate"

A seasonally adjusted annual rate is a way of taking a short-term economic or financial measure (like a monthly or quarterly figure), removing predictable seasonal ups and downs (such as holiday shopping or harvest cycles), and converting the result into a full-year pace. For investors it makes it easier to compare periods and judge underlying trends—like estimating a steady yearly income from a single month after stripping out routine seasonal spikes—so performance and forecasts are less distorted by predictable timing effects.

months of supply technical

"Months of supply | 4 | 0.1 | -0.2"

Months of supply measures how long it would take to sell all available homes at the current sales rate. It is calculated by dividing the total number of homes for sale by the number of homes sold each month. A lower number suggests a faster market with high demand, while a higher number indicates a slower market with more choices for buyers.

sale-to-original-list-price ratio technical

"Average sale-to-original-list-price ratio | 96.5 %"

The sale-to-original-list-price ratio compares the final sale price of an asset to the price it was first offered at, expressed as a fraction or percentage. It tells investors how close the sale came to the original asking price—like checking whether a listed house sold at, above, or below its initial listing—and signals whether sellers got full value, had to accept steep discounts, or realized a premium.

AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

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Near-record home prices, elevated mortgage rates and economic instability drove down U.S. home sales in July

SEATTLE, Aug. 12, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- U.S. home sales fell 4.1% from a month earlier in July, dropping to their lowest level in nearly two years on a seasonally adjusted basis. That's according to a new report from Redfin, the real estate brokerage powered by Rocket.

Pending home sales, a real-time indicator of homebuying demand, fell 2.5% to their lowest level since December.

Homebuying demand is slipping largely because housing costs are historically high, pricing many would-be buyers out of the market. The median U.S. home-sale price rose 3.2% year over year to $407,730, the highest July level on record, and the monthly average mortgage rate rose to a one-year high of 6.54%.

Widespread economic uncertainty was another factor that kept some would-be homebuyers on the sidelines in July. Concerns about the labor market, inflation and the broader economy made some buyers hesitant to make a major financial commitment, especially with housing costs already near record highs. That uncertainty likely contributed to the decline in sales and pending sales. It's also worth noting that some buyers backed out after making offers on homes: 14% of July's home-sale agreements fell through, the highest share since 2023.

"The housing market suffered from a mid-summer slump in July as would-be buyers grappled with record-high home prices, increasing mortgage rates and growing financial insecurity," said Chen Zhao, Redfin's head of economics research. "Many Americans simply can't afford today's housing costs, while others are holding off because they're worried about the economy and/or their job security. The silver lining is that the buyers who can afford a home may be able to negotiate on price and get concessions from sellers who are eager to offload their house."

Homebuying Demand Slumps Most in Texas and Tech-Heavy Seattle

Certain parts of the country are driving homebuying demand down. Home sales are falling fastest in Texas—San Antonio (-12.6% year over year), Dallas (-10%) and Fort Worth (-9.9%), specifically. Detroit (-9.3%) and Seattle (-9.1%) round out the top five.

Pending home sales are falling fastest in Seattle, where they declined 15.6% year over year. Seattle is followed by Houston (-14.3%) and Phoenix (-13.3%).

Texas' housing market is slowing partly because buyers have a lot to choose from after years of homebuilding, reducing urgency and competition. In some neighborhoods, sellers are also competing with builders offering incentives on new homes, according to Redfin agents.

In Seattle, meanwhile, pending sales are dropping as would-be buyers contend with stubbornly high housing costs; the metro area's median home-sale price is $809,479, roughly double the national average. Prospective house hunters are also grappling with a shaky tech job market: Layoffs at major employers like Microsoft and Amazon have hit some workers' finances hard, and made others less confident about their job security.

"Seattle is a tech-driven market, and right now a lot of buyers are feeling cautious about layoffs, AI and job security," said Chase Costello, a Redfin Premier agent in the Seattle area. "Tech workers aren't moving between companies—or moving into the area—as much as they used to, and that means fewer people are trading up into new homes. Buyers are still out there, but they're taking more time and being more careful about making a major purchase."

Home Sales Surge in West Palm Beach, San Francisco and Milwaukee, Bucking National Trend

Demand is strong in some places. Home sales rose fastest in July in West Palm Beach, FL, where they increased 17.1% from a year earlier. It's followed by San Francisco (8.5%) and Milwaukee (7%).

In South Florida and the Bay Area, affluent buyers who aren't sensitive to cost are driving the market; in San Francisco specifically, the AI boom is also contributing to strong home sales.

Milwaukee is bucking the national slowdown partly because homes remain relatively affordable: The typical home sells for about $383,805, less than the national average. The number of homes for sale in Milwaukee is also rising, and more listings can lead to more sales.

U.S. New Listings Dip to Lowest Level in Nearly 2 Years

Nationwide, new listings of homes dropped in July to their lowest level since October 2024. On a month-over-month basis, listings fell just 0.1%.

Both buyers and sellers are pulling back. High mortgage rates are discouraging some homeowners from listing, especially those who would have to give up a much lower rate to move, keeping new listings in check. Other would-be sellers are holding off as they notice tepid homebuying demand.

The total number of homes for sale dipped 0.3% month over month. Sluggish homebuying demand means the homes that do hit the market are taking longer to sell, preventing the total number of homes for sale from falling significantly.

July 2026 Housing Market Highlights: United States
	July 2026	Month-over-month change	Year-over-year change
Median sale price	$407,730	n/a	3.2 %
Existing-home sales, seasonally adjusted annual rate	4,259,358	-2.2 %	1 %
Pending home sales	335,051	-2.5 %	-0.7 %
Homes sold	285,312	-4.1 %	-0.6 %
New listings	375,149	-0.1 %	-0.6 %
Total homes for sale (active listings)	1,462,921	-0.3 %	-0.6 %
Months of supply	4	0.1	-0.2
Median days on market	49	unchanged	unchanged
Share of homes that sold below original list price	59.2 %	-0.7 ppts	-1.6 ppts
Average sale-to-original-list-price ratio	96.5 %	0.1 ppt	0.3 ppts
Pending sales that fell out of contract, as % of overall pending sales	14 %	0.3 ppts	0.7 ppts
Monthly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.54 %	0.05 ppts	-0.18 ppts

July 2026 Metro-Level Highlights

• Prices: Median sale prices rose most from a year earlier in West Palm Beach, FL (9.9%), Pittsburgh (6.6%) and Newark, NJ (6.6%). They fell most in San Jose, CA (-4%), Seattle (-3.6%) and Dallas (-0.8%).
• Pending home sales: Pending sales rose most in West Palm Beach, FL (14.2%), Milwaukee (4.5%) and Pittsburgh (3.9%). They fell most in Seattle (-15.6%), Houston (-14.3%) and Phoenix (-13.3%).
• Closed home sales: Home sales rose most in West Palm Beach, FL (17.1%), San Francisco (8.5%) and Milwaukee (7%). They fell most in San Antonio (-12.6%), Dallas (-10%) and Fort Worth, TX (-9.9%).
• New listings: New listings rose most in St. Louis (17.8%), San Jose, CA (10.5%) and Warren, MI (9.6%). They fell most in Miami (-9.3%), Dallas (-7.8%) and San Antonio (-7.6%).
• Active listings: Active listings rose most in Seattle (16.7%), St. Louis (13.9%) and Cincinnati (13.5%). They fell most in San Francisco (-18.4%), Miami (-18%) and Jacksonville, FL (-16.8%).
• Days on market: In West Palm Beach, FL the typical home that went under contract did so in 77 days, which was 16 days faster than a year earlier—the biggest decline among the metros analyzed. Next came Jacksonville, FL (-9 days) and Riverside, CA (-9 days). Days on market increased the most in Indianapolis (+7 days), Houston (+7 days) and Nashville, TN (+7 days).

To view the full report, including charts and additional metro-level data, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/pending-sales-decline-july-2026 

About Redfin 
Redfin is a technology-driven real estate company with the country's most-visited real estate brokerage website. As part of Rocket Companies (NYSE: RKT), Redfin is creating an integrated homeownership platform from search to close to make the dream of homeownership more affordable and accessible for everyone. Redfin's clients can see homes first with on-demand tours, easily apply for a home loan with Rocket Mortgage, and save thousands in fees while working with a top local agent.

You can find more information about Redfin and get the latest housing market data and research at https://www.redfin.com/news. For more information about Rocket Companies, visit https://www.rocketcompanies.com.

 

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SOURCE Redfin

FAQ

How did the U.S. housing market perform in July 2026 according to Redfin and Rocket (RKT)?

U.S. home sales fell 4.1% month over month in July 2026, reaching their lowest level in nearly two years. According to Redfin, pending sales dropped 2.5%, while the median U.S. sale price rose 3.2% year over year to $407,730 and mortgage rates averaged 6.54%.

What were the key July 2026 housing statistics that could affect Rocket (RKT) investors?

Key July 2026 metrics included a median U.S. sale price of $407,730, 285,312 homes sold and 335,051 pending home sales. According to Redfin, new listings were 375,149 and total active listings were 1,462,921, with a 30-year mortgage rate averaging 6.54%.

Which U.S. housing markets saw the biggest sales declines in July 2026 in the Redfin report tied to RKT?

Home sales fell most year over year in San Antonio (-12.6%), Dallas (-10%) and Fort Worth (-9.9%). According to Redfin, Detroit (-9.3%) and Seattle (-9.1%) also posted large declines, highlighting regional weakness that contrasts with growth in some Florida and California metros.

Where did home sales increase despite the national slowdown reported by Redfin and Rocket (RKT)?

Home sales rose fastest in West Palm Beach, up 17.1% year over year in July 2026. According to Redfin, San Francisco posted an 8.5% increase and Milwaukee 7%, helped by affluent buyers, tech-driven demand and relatively affordable prices in Milwaukee compared with the national median.

How did mortgage rates and prices impact July 2026 homebuying demand in the Redfin and RKT data?

The average 30-year mortgage rate reached 6.54% and the median U.S. sale price hit $407,730, a July record. According to Redfin, these historically high housing costs, combined with economic uncertainty, contributed to declines in closed and pending sales and higher contract cancellation rates.

What does the July 2026 pending home sales decline mean for the housing outlook relevant to Rocket (RKT)?

Pending home sales fell 2.5% month over month and 0.7% year over year to 335,051, the lowest level since December. According to Redfin, this real-time demand indicator suggests buyers are pulling back amid high prices, mortgage rates and economic concerns, pressuring near-term transaction volumes.

How tight was housing inventory in July 2026 based on the Redfin report associated with RKT?

New listings dropped to their lowest level since October 2024, edging down 0.1% month over month. According to Redfin, total active listings dipped 0.3% and months of supply stood at four, with slower demand keeping inventory from falling more sharply despite limited seller activity.