S&P Global Mobility: March 2025 US auto sales potentially ride one last wave

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S&P Global Mobility forecasts US auto sales to reach 1.45 million units in March 2025, representing a 16.3 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The first quarter SAAR average is expected to hit 16.0 million units, up from 15.5 million units a year ago.

Consumers and automakers are rushing to complete purchases before auto tariffs take effect in April, with dealers offering incentives to boost sales. The outlook for 2025 indicates sustained but moderate growth, though potential tariffs on imported vehicles and parts pose significant risks to demand and production.

Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales are projected to capture 8.5% market share in March, showing an increase from February. This uptick reflects market uncertainty as stakeholders adapt to potential changes in BEV incentives.

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S&P Global Mobility projects that US auto sales in March will crest over 1.45 million units, as consumers and automakers try to get ahead of tariffs

SOUTHFIELD, Mich., March 28, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- With volume for the month projected at 1.45 million units, March 2025 U.S. auto sales are estimated to translate to an estimated sales pace of 16.3 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), according to S&P Global Mobility. This would bring the SAAR average in the first quarter of the year to a level of 16.0 million units.  While the first quarter of 2025 would reflect progress from a year-ago reading of 15.5 million units, it might be the high mark for a while, as auto tariffs take effect in April.

"Automakers, by way of incentives, and savvy consumers are likely attempting to get ahead of future uncertainty surrounding auto pricing levels by taking advantage of March deals," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "Downside risks to the auto demand and production environment abound as consumers face potential higher auto prices as a result of expected tariffs to imported vehicles and parts."

The S&P Global Mobility US auto outlook for 2025 reflects sustained, but more moderate growth levels for light vehicle sales, but consumer pressures and potential auto tariffs create notable downside risks to volume estimates at this time.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales
		Mar 25 (Est)	Feb 25	Mar 24
Total Light Vehicle	Units, NSA	1,454,000	1,219,841	1,432,132
	In millions, SAAR	16.3	16.0	15.7
Light Truck	In millions, SAAR	13.3	13.0	12.7
Passenger Car	In millions, SAAR	3.0	3.0	3.0
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility light vehicle sales forecast.  In the immediate term, some month-to-month volatility is anticipated. March BEV share is expected to reach 8.5%, an increase from February reported figures and reflective of the uneasiness as automakers, dealers and consumers continue to digest potential changes to BEV incentives. 

About S&P Global Mobility

At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.

S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.

Media Contact:

Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com

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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility

FAQ

What is the projected US auto sales volume for March 2025 according to S&P Global Mobility?

S&P Global Mobility projects US auto sales to reach 1.45 million units in March 2025, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.3 million units.

How will the upcoming auto tariffs in April 2025 affect the US auto market?

The auto tariffs are expected to create downside risks to demand and production, potentially leading to higher auto prices for imported vehicles and parts.

What is the expected BEV market share for March 2025?

Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) market share is expected to reach 8.5% in March 2025, showing an increase from February figures.

How does the Q1 2025 SAAR compare to the previous year?

The Q1 2025 SAAR average of 16.0 million units shows improvement from the year-ago reading of 15.5 million units.

Why are US auto sales expected to peak in March 2025?

Sales are expected to peak as automakers offer incentives and consumers rush to purchase vehicles before new auto tariffs take effect in April 2025.