TransUnion 2026 Outlook: Moderate Credit Card Balance Growth and Stable Delinquency Rates Signal Consumer Perseverance

Rhea-AI Summary

TransUnion (NYSE: TRU) released its 2026 Consumer Credit Forecast, projecting credit card balances to rise 2.3% YoY to $1.18 trillion by year-end 2026, the smallest annual increase since 2013 (excluding 2020). 90+ day credit card delinquencies are forecast to be stable at 2.57% (up 1 bp).

TransUnion also expects modest increases in serious delinquencies for auto loans (1.54%), mortgages (1.65%, +11 bps) and unsecured personal loans (3.75%).

Positive

• Year-end credit card balances forecast at $1.18 trillion
• Credit card 90+ DPD forecast nearly unchanged at 2.57%

Negative

• Unemployment expected to rise to 4.5% by late 2026
• Mortgage 60+ DPD projected to increase 11 bps to 1.65%

Key Figures

Credit card balance growth 2.3% YoY Forecast 2026 vs 2025

Card balances 2026 $1.18 trillion Forecast year-end 2026

Card balances 2025 $1.16 trillion Forecast year-end 2025

Card 90+ DPD rate 2.57% Forecast year-end 2026

Inflation rate 2.45% Assumed inflation in forecast backdrop

Unemployment rate 4.5% Expected by late 2026

Auto loans 60+ DPD 1.54% Forecast year-end 2026 delinquency rate

Unsecured loans 60+ DPD 3.75% Forecast year-end 2026 delinquency rate

Market Reality Check

$81.21 Last Close

Volume Volume 1,534,320 vs 20-day average 1,692,772 (relative volume 0.91x) suggests no unusual trading ahead of this forecast. normal

Technical TRU trading below its 200-day MA, with price at $81.21 versus 200-day MA of $85.56 before this report.

Peers on Argus

Sector peers showed mixed, modest moves (e.g., FDS +0.38%, CBOE -0.43%, NDAQ +1.02%), indicating today’s setup for TRU looks more stock-specific than broad sector-driven.

Historical Context

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Dec 04	Student loan report	Neutral	+1.0%	Report on doubling student loan delinquencies among renter applicants.
Nov 20	Consumer survey data	Positive	-1.4%	Holiday credit usage survey and launch of Credit Essentials service.
Nov 19	Industry recognition	Positive	+2.1%	Named Leader in 2025 Gartner Magic Quadrant for MMM solutions.
Nov 18	Strategic partnership	Positive	+1.2%	Snappt integration into TruVision Resident Screening for fraud detection.
Nov 13	Product launch	Positive	-0.7%	Launch of Credit Washing Solution targeting suppression of charged-off debt.

Pattern Detected

Recent TransUnion news often aligns with price moves, though there are a few divergences when positive product or study updates coincided with mild declines.

Recent Company History

Over the last months, TransUnion issued several data- and product-focused updates. These ranged from a report on rising student loan delinquencies among renters (Dec 04 2025) to consumer holiday credit usage insights and a new Credit Essentials service (Nov 20). The company also highlighted recognition in the 2025 Gartner Magic Quadrant, a Snappt partnership, and a Credit Washing fraud solution. Today’s credit forecast continues this pattern of analytics-driven commentary on consumer credit health.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement outlines TransUnion’s 2026 consumer credit forecast, with credit card balances projected to reach $1.18 trillion and 90+ DPD rates around 2.57%. Other products such as auto, mortgage, and unsecured personal loans show only slight delinquency increases. Placed alongside recent product launches and data reports, the news reinforces TransUnion’s role as a credit trend barometer. Investors may watch how inflation near 2.45% and unemployment around 4.5% evolve versus these assumptions.

Key Terms

90+ DPD financial

"with the percentage of consumers 90 or more days past due (90+ DPD)"

Loans or payments that are 90 or more days past their scheduled due date, used as a shorthand for severely delinquent credit. It matters to investors because a rising share of 90+ dpd signals borrowers are struggling and that lenders may face higher losses, similar to noticing many smoke alarms going off in a building — it warns of deeper trouble that can erode earnings, force bigger loan-loss reserves, and reduce asset value.

basis point financial

"90 or more days past due (90+ DPD) inching up by just one basis point"

A basis point is a unit equal to one one‑hundredth of a percent (0.01%), used to describe very small changes in interest rates, bond yields, fees or other percentage figures. Think of it like a single dollar change on $10,000: tiny by itself but meaningful when applied to large sums or repeated over time, so investors use basis points to track and compare small but financially significant moves precisely.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

TransUnion also projects delinquency expectations for other major credit products during the next year

CHICAGO, Dec. 10, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- TransUnion (NYSE: TRU) today released its 2026 Consumer Credit Forecast, projecting credit card balances to grow 2.3% year over year (YoY)—the smallest annual increase since 2013, excluding 2020 when pandemic relief programs caused a decline. This moderation reflects consumers navigating persistent economic uncertainty as lenders maintain disciplined underwriting standards.

Credit card balances are expected to reach $1.18 trillion by the end of 2026, up from $1.16 trillion in 2025. This increase contrasts sharply with the double-digit growth of 2022 and 2023, but reflects the more modest pace of growth seen in more recent years. Lenders are cautiously expanding credit access for riskier consumer segments while prioritizing account management strategies to mitigate delinquency risk.

“After elevated credit card balance growth over the last 5 years, credit card balance growth is expected to moderate driven by both measured spend growth by consumers and prudent credit extension by lenders,” said Paul Siegfried, senior vice president and credit card business leader at TransUnion. “While economic pressures remain, this trend suggests households are managing credit more responsibly—a favorable sign as we move into 2026.”

Credit card delinquency rates are forecast to remain virtually flat, with the percentage of consumers 90 or more days past due (90+ DPD) inching up by just one basis point to 2.57%. This stability reflects tighter underwriting and proactive risk management by card issuers—even as consumers contend with inflationary pressures and fluctuating interest rates.

Credit Card Forecast: Small Balance Growth, Stable Delinquencies

Metric/Year	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025*	2026*
Year-End Balances ($B)	$847	$740	$785	$931	$1,048	$1,108	$1,157	$1,183
YoY % Change	5.7%	-12.5%	6.1%	18.5%	12.6%	5.7%	4.4%	2.3%
Year-End 90+ DPD DQ Rate	2.19%	1.30%	1.48%	2.26%	2.59%	2.56%	2.56%	2.57%

*Forecasted
Source: TransUnion U.S. Consumer Credit Database

The forecast reflects a complex backdrop: inflation remains above target at 2.45%, and unemployment is expected to rise slightly to 4.5% by late 2026, which could put strain on household budgets for certain borrowers. At the same time, multiple anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts over the next year should ease borrowing costs and provide some relief to consumers.

Delinquency Trends Across Other Credit Products

• Auto Loans: Accounts 60+ DPD are expected to reach 1.54% (+3 bps YoY), marking the fifth straight year of higher delinquencies—though each increase has become progressively smaller.
  
• Mortgages: Accounts 60+ DPD are projected to hit 1.65% (+11 bps YoY) in December 2026, influenced by a modest rise in unemployment.
  
• Unsecured Personal Loans: Consumers 60+ DPD are forecast at 3.75% (+1 bps YoY), driven partly by macroeconomic pressures and increased non-prime originations.
  

“Delinquency rates across most credit products are expected to see slight increases, which is not surprising given the unsettled economic environment,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. “The growth in serious delinquency rates remains measured, and consumers appear to be managing their finances reasonably well. We’ll continue to monitor these trends closely to determine whether this signals a broader improvement in consumer credit health.”

Serious Delinquency Rates For Other Products Are Expected to See Only Slight Increases in 2026

Credit Product/ Year-End DQ Rate	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025*	2026*
Auto Loans 60+ DPD	1.29%	0.95%	0.92%	1.26%	1.42%	1.47%	1.51%	1.54%
Mortgage 60+ DPD	1.63%	1.03%	0.82%	0.96%	1.11%	1.39%	1.54%	1.65%
Unsecured Personal Loans 60+ DPD	3.48%	2.70%	3.00%	4.14%	3.90%	3.57%	3.74%	3.75%

*Forecasted
Source: TransUnion U.S. Consumer Credit Database

“The smallest year-over-year growth in credit card balances in more than a decade, combined with stable delinquency rates, underscores the relative strength and resilience of consumer credit behavior—even amid broader economic uncertainty,” said Jason Laky, executive vice president and head of financial services at TransUnion. “For lenders, these trends present an opportunity to build deeper relationships with responsible borrowers while continuing to prioritize prudent risk management.”

TransUnion’s forecasts are based on various economic assumptions, such as expected consumer spending, disposable personal income, home prices, inflation, interest rates, real GDP growth rates and unemployment rates, among other metrics. The forecasts could change if there are unanticipated shocks to the economy. Better-than-expected improvements in the economy, such as increases in GDP and disposable income, could also impact these forecasts.

To discover how lenders can attract more customers with speed, precision, and control — click here. To learn how TruVision helps balance risk and opportunity by identifying and managing best-fit customers across the account lifecycle — click here.

For tips on how factors like utilization rate and payment history impact credit, visit TransUnion’s blog on responsible credit card use.

About TransUnion (NYSE: TRU)

TransUnion is a global information and insights company with over 13,000 associates operating in more than 30 countries. We make trust possible by ensuring each person is reliably represented in the marketplace. We do this with a Tru™ picture of each person: an actionable view of consumers, stewarded with care. Through our acquisitions and technology investments we have developed innovative solutions that extend beyond our strong foundation in core credit into areas such as marketing, fraud, risk and advanced analytics. As a result, consumers and businesses can transact with confidence and achieve great things. We call this Information for Good® — and it leads to economic opportunity, great experiences and personal empowerment for millions of people around the world.
http://www.transunion.com/business

Contact	Dave Blumberg
	TransUnion
E-mail	david.blumberg@transunion.com
Telephone	312-972-6646

FAQ

What does TransUnion predict for credit card balances in 2026 (TRU)?

TransUnion projects credit card balances will reach $1.18 trillion in 2026, a 2.3% YoY increase.

How will credit card delinquency rates change in 2026 for TRU data?

Credit card 90+ day delinquency is forecast to be virtually flat at 2.57% (up 1 basis point).

What 2026 delinquency trends does TransUnion forecast for mortgages (TRU)?

Mortgages 60+ DPD are projected to rise to 1.65% in December 2026, an increase of 11 bps year over year.

What does TransUnion forecast for auto loan delinquencies in 2026 (TRU)?

Auto loans 60+ DPD are expected at 1.54% in 2026, up 3 basis points year over year.

How might TransUnion’s 2026 forecast affect lenders evaluating risk (TRU)?

The forecast signals moderated card balance growth and stable delinquencies, supporting continued disciplined underwriting and account management.