Verisk Estimates Insured Losses from Kumamoto Earthquake in Japan Will Range Between JPY 220 Billion (~USD 1.4 Billion) and JPY 340 Billion (~USD 2.1 Billion)

Rhea-AI Summary

Verisk (Nasdaq: VRSK), through its Catastrophe and Risk Solutions group, estimates insured losses from the July 28 magnitude 6.8 earthquake near Kumamoto City, Japan, at between JPY 220 billion (~USD 1.4 billion) and JPY 340 billion (~USD 2.1 billion). The estimate covers insured property losses from ground shaking and liquefaction before any recoveries under Japan's earthquake insurance program.

According to Verisk, damage was widespread across Kumamoto Prefecture, disrupting transportation, power for about 48,000 households, and operations at semiconductor, electronics and automotive facilities. The modeled losses focus on insured physical damage to residential, commercial, industrial and mutual properties, and exclude uninsured assets, infrastructure, automobiles, business interruption and several other risk categories.

News Market Reaction – VRSK

-0.89%

-0.89% Session close to close

In the Aug 3 session, VRSK declined 0.89%, reflecting a mild negative market reaction.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Market Context

An active S-3ASR dated March 24, 2026 provides financing-context alongside this insured-loss estimat...

Analysis

An active S-3ASR dated March 24, 2026 provides financing-context alongside this insured-loss estimate; no shelf amount or usage was reported. Recent insider activity was Net Selling; monitor updated estimates and filings.

Key Figures

Insured loss estimate lower bound: JPY 220 billion Insured loss estimate lower bound: approximately USD 1.4 billion Insured loss estimate upper bound: JPY 340 billion +5 more

8 metrics

Insured loss estimate lower bound JPY 220 billion Kumamoto earthquake

Insured loss estimate lower bound approximately USD 1.4 billion Kumamoto earthquake

Insured loss estimate upper bound JPY 340 billion Kumamoto earthquake

Insured loss estimate upper bound approximately USD 2.1 billion Kumamoto earthquake

Earthquake magnitude magnitude 6.8 Earthquake near Kumamoto City on July 28

Earthquake date July 28 Kumamoto earthquake

Earthquake depth approximately 10 kilometers Shallow depth south of Kumamoto

Households without power approximately 48,000 households Immediate aftermath of the earthquake

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Jul 08 (Neutral)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	24h Move	Catalyst
Jul 08	Earnings scheduling	Neutral	-1.3%	Announced the date and webcast details for fiscal second-quarter 2026 results.
Jul 02	Earthquake loss estimate	Neutral	+2.5%	Estimated economic losses exceeding USD 10 billion from Venezuela's earthquake sequence.
Jun 23	Industry performance report	Positive	+3.4%	Reported strong insurer underwriting results alongside slower premium growth.
Jun 23	Data partnership	Positive	+3.4%	Partnered with Trucker Path to integrate CargoNet cargo-theft intelligence.
Jun 01	Risk-model launch	Positive	+5.1%	Announced a reengineered U.S. Tropical Cyclone Model on Synergy Studio.

24h Move is the share-price change in the day after each event; other market factors may also have contributed.

Pattern Detected

Positive operating or product news aligned with gains in three cases, while a scheduling notice and catastrophe estimate produced divergent price reactions.

Key Terms

strike-slip faulting, business interruption, loss adjustment expenses

3 terms

strike-slip faulting technical

"resulted from shallow strike-slip faulting within the Eurasian Plate"

A strike-slip fault is a type of earthquake fault where two blocks of Earth's crust slide past each other horizontally, like cars passing in opposite lanes. For investors, strike-slip faulting matters because it concentrates earthquake risk along long, narrow zones that can threaten infrastructure, mining operations, pipelines, and property values, similar to a frequently used road increasing wear and the chance of accidents in nearby businesses.

business interruption financial

"exclude losses to uninsured properties, infrastructure, automobiles, business interruption"

An interruption to a company's normal operations that reduces or stops its ability to generate revenue, for example due to physical damage, supply-chain breakdowns, regulatory actions, or IT outages. Investors care because lost sales and extra costs during the downtime can hurt cash flow, earnings and stock value, and the speed of recovery or insurance reimbursement determines how quickly the business returns to normal — like a store forced to close until repairs are done.

loss adjustment expenses financial

"loss adjustment expenses, demand surge and losses arising from certain"

Costs an insurance company incurs to investigate, process, defend and settle claims — for example, fees for claims adjusters, legal defense, and settlement negotiations. These expenses act like the labor and admin needed to handle a warranty repair: they don’t pay the claim itself but add to the total cost of claims, so rising loss adjustment expenses reduce insurers’ profits and signal how efficiently future claims are likely to be handled.

AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

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Estimate captures insured property losses from ground shaking and liquefaction and are before any recoveries under Japan's earthquake insurance program

BOSTON, Aug. 02, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) --  The Catastrophe and Risk Solutions group at Verisk (Nasdaq: VRSK), a leading strategic data analytics and technology provider to the global insurance industry, estimates insured losses of between JPY 220 billion (approximately USD 1.4 billion) and JPY 340 billion (approximately USD 2.1 billion) from the magnitude 6.8 earthquake that struck near Kumamoto City on Japan's Kyushu Island on July 28.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the earthquake occurred south of Kumamoto at a shallow depth of approximately 10 kilometers and resulted from shallow strike-slip faulting within the Eurasian Plate. The event struck a region that experienced a devastating earthquake sequence in 2016, including a magnitude 7.0 mainshock that caused widespread property damage and a significant loss of life.

Reported Damage and Economic Impacts

The July earthquake caused widespread damage across Kumamoto Prefecture, where the strongest shaking was recorded in Uki City and Hikawa Town. Authorities reported hundreds of damaged homes and commercial buildings, damage to cultural landmarks and public infrastructure, and ongoing assessments of structural impacts throughout the affected region. Transportation networks were significantly disrupted, including damage to highways, bridges and rail infrastructure, while approximately 48,000 households experienced power outages in the immediate aftermath of the event.

The event also affected one of Japan's most important manufacturing hubs. Several semiconductor, electronic and automotive facilities temporarily suspended operations while inspections and damage assessments were conducted, raising concerns about supply chain disruptions.

Modeling Information

Verisk's insured loss estimates are dominated by damage from ground shaking, with a comparatively small contribution from other modeled earthquake perils. The loss range reflects uncertainty related to fault slip distribution, ground-motion intensity, damage estimation and earthquake insurance take-up rates in Japan.

Verisk's estimates include insured physical damage to residential, commercial, industrial and mutual property risks, including both structures and contents. The estimates exclude losses to uninsured properties, infrastructure, automobiles, business interruption, workers' compensation, marine and aviation risks, loss adjustment expenses, demand surge and losses arising from certain non-modeled perils such as landslide and fire following.

Verisk continues to monitor impacts from this event and may provide additional information.

About Verisk
Verisk (Nasdaq: VRSK) is a leading strategic data analytics and technology partner to the global insurance industry. It empowers clients to strengthen operating efficiency, improve underwriting and claims outcomes, combat fraud and make informed decisions about global risks, including climate change, catastrophic events, sustainability and political issues. Through advanced data analytics, software, scientific research and deep industry knowledge, Verisk helps build global resilience for individuals, communities and businesses. With teams across more than 20 countries, Verisk consistently earns certification by Great Place to Work. For more, visit Verisk.com and the Verisk Newsroom.

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Mary Keller
Verisk
339-832-7048
mary.keller@verisk.com

FAQ

What insured loss range did Verisk (VRSK) estimate for the July 28, 2026 Kumamoto earthquake?

Verisk estimated insured losses between JPY 220 billion and JPY 340 billion. According to Verisk, this range, roughly USD 1.4–2.1 billion, reflects uncertainty in fault slip, ground-motion intensity, damage levels and earthquake insurance take-up rates in Japan.

What types of losses are included in Verisk’s Kumamoto earthquake insured loss estimate for VRSK?

The estimate includes insured physical damage to residential, commercial, industrial and mutual properties. According to Verisk, it covers both structures and contents from ground shaking and liquefaction, but not uninsured assets or several other excluded risk categories.

Which losses are excluded from Verisk’s insured loss estimate for the 2026 Kumamoto earthquake?

The estimate excludes losses to uninsured properties, infrastructure, automobiles and business interruption. According to Verisk, it also omits workers’ compensation, marine and aviation risks, loss adjustment expenses, demand surge and some non-modeled perils like landslide and fire following.

How did the July 28, 2026 Kumamoto earthquake affect infrastructure and power according to Verisk (VRSK)?

Verisk reports significant disruption to transportation networks and power in Kumamoto Prefecture. According to Verisk, highways, bridges and rail infrastructure were damaged, and about 48,000 households experienced power outages immediately after the magnitude 6.8 event.

Did the 2026 Kumamoto earthquake impact manufacturing and supply chains according to Verisk’s analysis?

Yes, the event affected one of Japan’s key manufacturing hubs with temporary plant suspensions. According to Verisk, several semiconductor, electronics and automotive facilities halted operations for inspections and damage assessments, raising concerns about potential supply chain disruptions.

What geological characteristics did Verisk and USGS report for the July 2026 Kumamoto earthquake?

The earthquake was a magnitude 6.8 event at about 10 km depth. According to Verisk, citing USGS, it occurred south of Kumamoto and resulted from shallow strike-slip faulting within the Eurasian Plate in a region previously damaged in 2016.