Geopolitical alignment becomes essential for internationally exposed firms amid new trade paradigm
Rhea-AI Summary
Willis (NASDAQ: WTW) published a Political Risk Index report on Dec 11, 2025 titled "Mapping the new geopolitics of tariff deals" that maps how 2025 U.S. tariff deals are reshaping global trade.
The report finds tariff deals increasingly require signatories to align with U.S. national security policies: export controls in 13 deals and supply chain security in 10 deals. It highlights country pivots (Vietnam, Cambodia, Ecuador) toward the Western bloc and notes Argentina secured a bailout after a political pivot. Major economies (Brazil, India, South Africa) remain unsigned, creating alignment uncertainty. The report also flags "poison pill" clauses and limited retaliation so far (noting China and Canada as significant retaliators).
Positive
- Report quantifies policy terms: 13 deals include export controls
- Report quantifies policy terms: 10 deals include supply chain security
- Country pivots identified: Vietnam, Cambodia, Ecuador shifted toward Western alignment
Negative
- Major economies unsigned: Brazil, India, South Africa remain unaligned
- Tariff deals include poison pill provisions that can eject signatories
- West losing influence in Africa after non-renewal of trade preferences and aid reductions
Key Figures
Market Reality Check
Peers on Argus
WTW fell 2.24%, a larger decline than most close peers, which were mixed to slightly negative: AON -1.79%, BRO -0.9%, ERIE -0.9%, MMC -0.29%, while AJG ticked up 0.41%. This suggests a more company-specific move rather than a broad sector reaction to the geopolitical risk report.
Historical Context
| Date | Event | Sentiment | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 04 | Product launch | Positive | +1.0% | Launch of Radar Fusion cloud-native underwriting and analytics solution. |
| Dec 03 | Dividend declaration | Positive | +1.0% | Announcement of regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.92 per share. |
| Dec 01 | Strategic acquisition | Positive | -0.1% | Acquisition of FlowStone Partners to expand private markets capabilities. |
| Nov 17 | Strategic partnership | Positive | -1.1% | MOU with NATS to deliver integrated aviation risk and resilience services. |
| Nov 13 | Leadership recognition | Positive | +1.3% | CHRO recognized with 2025 N2Growth Leaders40 Top CHRO Award. |
Recent news has generally produced modest moves (around ±1%), with operational and strategic positives sometimes met with mild gains and occasionally with small pullbacks, indicating measured market reactions to announcements.
Over the past month, WTW has issued several operational and strategic updates. On Nov 13, recognition of its CHRO as a Leaders40 Top CHRO was followed by a 1.33% gain. A Nov 17 MOU with NATS on aviation risk services saw a 1.1% decline. The Dec 1 FlowStone acquisition news produced a nearly flat -0.07% move. A regular dividend announcement and the launch of Radar Fusion on Dec 3 and Dec 4 each coincided with a 0.99% gain. This new geopolitical risk report fits into a pattern of advisory and strategy-focused communications.
Market Pulse Summary
This announcement highlights WTW’s focus on geopolitical and tariff-related risk, emphasizing how national security alignment and tariff deals shape supply chains and market access. The report’s findings on export controls in 13 deals and supply chain security in 10 deals underline growing complexity for international firms. In context with recent product launches and strategic partnerships, it reinforces WTW’s advisory positioning. Investors may monitor client demand for such analytics and how evolving tariff regimes affect globally active companies.
Key Terms
tariffs financial
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
LONDON, Dec. 11, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The international trade landscape was altered beyond recognition in 2025, a year defined by U.S. tariff deals. As geopolitical dynamics shift, countries’ national security alignments have become central to risk management and long-term resilience for globally active businesses. The latest Political Risk Index by Willis, a WTW business (NASDAQ: WTW), aims to distinguish risk signals from noise and help globalised firms prepare for the emerging era of tariff geopolitics.
The report, titled "Mapping the new geopolitics of tariff deals" reveals how the U.S. is requiring trading partners to align with its national security interests or face punitive economic barriers. Through a series of maps, this report attempts to build a picture of the new trade landscape that will emerge as a result.
Drawing on research from Oxford Analytica’s country experts, the report finds that:
- Tariff deals are building a “moat” around the West. Many tariff deals require signatories to align with U.S. national security policies on key issues, most frequently export controls (included in 13 deals) followed by supply chain security (10 deals), enhanced rules of origin and trans-shipment monitoring. While these measures will take time to be implemented, companies may increasingly find it difficult to adapt to trade barriers by re-routing supply chains.
- Tariff deals are raising the stakes in East-West geopolitical competition. The 2025 deals appear to cement some surprising geopolitical realignments:
- Vietnam, Cambodia and Ecuador have pivoted towards the Western bloc, agreeing to enforce U.S. export controls to secure deal terms.
- Argentina secured a bailout and an aligned partner deal following a pivot to the political right.
- However, major economies, including Brazil, India and South Africa, have yet to sign deals, making their future alignment uncertain, which could have significant consequences for foreign companies operating in these countries.
- In addition, many tariff deals contain poison pill provisions that may lead to deal signatories being suddenly ejected from the Western moat.
- Tariff pressures have so far produced limited retaliation. While many countries retaliated against the tariffs introduced in President Trump’s first term, only two countries (China and Canada) have retaliated significantly against the 2025 tariffs. Both countries are still retaliating.
- Tariffs are often seen through a competitive lens. While initial reactions to tariffs in countries such as Brazil and Indonesia ranged from public outrage to diplomatic concern, many governments and business communities quickly shifted to competition: seeking deals that put their tariff rates below those of regional rivals, which could attract export-oriented investment.
The study also finds that the West is losing the contest for influence in Africa. With the non-renewal of key trade preferences and reductions in U.S. aid, many African countries appear to be realigning towards Russia and other non-Western partners – a trend with major implications for companies’ frontier-market strategies.
Sam Wilkin, director of political risk analytics at Willis, said: “Companies have been astonishingly adept at adjusting their supply chains to fast-changing tariff rates. But companies also need to manage the geopolitics of tariffs. Our latest research highlights how tariffs can no longer be treated as a compliance or operational issue but need to be embedded at the core of strategic planning.”
The complete report can be downloaded here.
About WTW
At WTW (NASDAQ: WTW), we provide data-driven, insight-led solutions in the areas of people, risk and capital. Leveraging the global view and local expertise of our colleagues serving 140 countries and markets, we help organizations sharpen their strategy, enhance organizational resilience, motivate their workforce and maximize performance.
Working shoulder to shoulder with our clients, we uncover opportunities for sustainable success—and provide perspective that moves you.
Learn more at wtwco.com.
Media contact
Jo Barrett
jo.barrett@wtwco.com / +44 7940703911
Lauren David
Lauren.david@wtwco.com / +44 7385947619
FAQ
What did Willis (WTW) report on Dec 11, 2025 about tariff geopolitics?
How many 2025 tariff deals include export controls according to the WTW report?
Which countries does the WTW report say pivoted toward Western alignment in 2025?
Which countries have significantly retaliated against the 2025 tariffs noted by Willis (WTW)?
What investor risks does the WTW Political Risk Index highlight for companies operating internationally?
How do unsigned major economies affect foreign firms, per the WTW report?
