Lower mortgage rates extend housing momentum into fall

Rhea-AI Summary

Zillow (NYSE:ZG) reports that lower mortgage rates and a stock market uptick helped sustain unusually strong fall housing activity on Oct. 20, 2025.

Key data: new listings rose 3% year-over-year in September after a 3% decline in August; total inventory is 14% higher than a year ago; pending sales fell 5.4% month-to-month (a smaller-than-typical September drop); buyer's markets rose from 6 to 15 of the 50 largest metros. National ZHVI is $364,891 (0.0% YoY) and 26.2% of listings show price cuts.

Positive

• New listings +3% year-over-year in September
• Total inventory +14% year-over-year nationally
• Buyer's markets expanded from 6 to 15 of 50 largest metros
• Pending sales decline of 5.4% MoM — smaller-than-typical September drop

Negative

• 26.2% of listings have a price cut nationally
• ZHVI declines >5% in several metros: Austin -6.0% and Tampa -6.4%
• United States new listings month-over-month -2.0%

Insights

Housing market strategist

September showed sustained buyer-seller activity with modest price stability and rising inventory, keeping markets roughly balanced into fall.

The mechanics: Zillow reports national median values near $364,891 with 0.0% year-over-year change, inventory up 14%, and new listings up 3.3%, which together increase buyer choice and soften seller leverage. Pending sales fell modestly month-to-month but less than typical seasonal declines, indicating demand held up despite the usual autumn slowdown.

Dependencies and risks: These patterns depend on mortgage rate movements and equity markets remaining supportive, as noted in the summary for Oct. 20, 2025. Local outcomes vary sharply: some large metros (San Jose, San Francisco, New York) still favor sellers, while 15 of the 50 largest metros now favor buyers, so national averages mask regional divergence.

What to watch and horizon: Monitor mortgage-rate trends and monthly pending-sales and new-listings data over the next 3–6 months to see if the resilience persists into winter. Track inventory versus pending-sales in the 15 buyer-favor metros and ZHVI changes for high-cost coastal markets for early signs of shifting balance.

Buyers and sellers remained unseasonably active, bouncing back after an August lull

• The number of buyers markets more than doubled, rising from six to 15 over the past year.
• New listings from sellers rose 3% annually, emerging from a 3% annual decline in August.
• Buyers have 14% more options to choose from compared to a year ago. 

SEATTLE, Oct. 20, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- A September dip in mortgage rates paired with a stock market bump gave a boost to what is traditionally the start of the slow season in real estate. The latest market report¹ from Zillow^® shows activity from sellers and buyers is unseasonably resilient after a lackluster August.

"September's market showed surprising stamina," said Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow. "Typically, both buyers and sellers step back this time of year, but lower mortgage rates and stock market highs provided a second wind heading into fall. This time of year can be a sweet spot for buyers. There's often less competition than in the spring and more time to make sure the home's a perfect fit. Sellers who stay in the market into the holidays may be more open to negotiating."

Unexpected showing of sellers in September

More homeowners decided to list their properties in September after a particularly slow August. New listings, which were down 3% year over year in August, rebounded to show 3% annual growth in September. Typically, new listings drop off sharply heading into fall — they've fallen an average of 9% in September over the past seven years — making this year's mere 2% drop exceptional. 

Buyers also remained active in September. Pending sales fell 5.4% from August to September, a smaller drop than is typical for this time of year and less than half the usual monthly decline in September. 

Total inventory fell 1% from August to September, but is up 14% from last year. 

Buyer's markets more than double as competition eases

A year ago, six of the nation's 50 largest metros were buyer's markets; this September, buyers have the edge in 15 metros. Zillow's market heat index shows the strongest buyer's markets are Miami, New Orleans, Austin, Jacksonville and Indianapolis. That's due, in large part, to a surge of new construction in most of those areas in recent years. 

The hottest markets for sellers are in the Northeast and Bay Area: Buffalo, Hartford, San Jose, San Francisco and New York — places where builders face some of the most stringent land use restrictions.

Fall outlook for buyers & sellers
Fall can be a sweet spot for buyers, with lower competition than in the spring and more homes for sale than later in the year. Sellers who don't sell by the holidays may be more open to negotiating concessions on price, closing costs and mortgage rate buydowns. 

Sellers, meanwhile, should present their listings in the best possible light to help them stand out to buyers. Home sellers in a buyers or neutral market should be prepared for buyers asking for concessions on closing costs and rate buydowns.

Metro Area*	Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI)	ZHVI Year over Year (YoY)	Share of Listings With a Price Cut	Market Favors (Zillow Market Heat Index)	Inventory Change YoY	New Listings Change YoY	New Listings Change Month over Month
United States	$364,891	0.0 %	26.2 %	Neutral	14.0 %	3.3 %	-2.0 %
New York, NY	$712,114	2.8 %	16.4 %	Strong Seller	7.6 %	4.8 %	24.1 %
Los Angeles, CA	$948,924	-1.3 %	23.0 %	Seller	18.5 %	-4.9 %	-2.9 %
Chicago, IL	$342,600	3.4 %	29.4 %	Seller	-2.5 %	0.2 %	-0.8 %
Dallas, TX	$363,788	-4.1 %	32.8 %	Neutral	15.6 %	-3.1 %	-9.5 %
Houston, TX	$306,359	-2.2 %	28.7 %	Buyer	25.0 %	-2.5 %	-10.6 %
Washington, DC	$576,227	0.3 %	29.3 %	Seller	30.5 %	7.7 %	20.2 %
Philadelphia, PA	$381,306	2.8 %	26.7 %	Neutral	10.4 %	6.6 %	11.2 %
Miami, FL	$471,301	-5.0 %	20.1 %	Buyer	13.6 %	-7.9 %	3.3 %
Atlanta, GA	$381,717	-3.0 %	29.7 %	Buyer	18.4 %	-1.7 %	-5.9 %
Boston, MA	$724,620	1.0 %	24.4 %	Seller	17.8 %	8.5 %	62.8 %
Phoenix, AZ	$446,616	-3.5 %	31.3 %	Neutral	16.2 %	1.5 %	12.6 %
San Francisco, CA	$1,102,769	-3.5 %	20.8 %	Strong Seller	8.8 %	0.2 %	35.8 %
Riverside, CA	$579,795	-2.6 %	22.8 %	Seller	15.7 %	-4.0 %	-2.1 %
Detroit, MI	$263,008	3.3 %	28.2 %	Buyer	11.7 %	5.2 %	-9.1 %
Seattle, WA	$744,272	-1.1 %	31.7 %	Neutral	20.7 %	3.6 %	14.5 %
Minneapolis, MN	$384,177	2.0 %	29.2 %	Seller	7.0 %	3.1 %	-1.7 %
San Diego, CA	$917,590	-2.8 %	28.0 %	Seller	19.6 %	-6.6 %	-11.5 %
Tampa, FL	$357,862	-6.4 %	31.1 %	Buyer	13.1 %	4.7 %	-4.4 %
Denver, CO	$572,214	-3.0 %	36.0 %	Neutral	15.8 %	-4.4 %	3.0 %
Baltimore, MD	$397,496	1.6 %	29.4 %	Seller	22.1 %	10.0 %	1.5 %
St. Louis, MO	$267,715	2.3 %	28.6 %	Seller	7.1 %	5.4 %	0.9 %
Orlando, FL	$386,342	-4.7 %	28.0 %	Neutral	15.4 %	-4.6 %	-6.0 %
Charlotte, NC	$386,142	-0.7 %	29.3 %	Buyer	20.2 %	7.0 %	-1.1 %
San Antonio, TX	$279,011	-3.1 %	29.6 %	Buyer	11.8 %	0.0 %	-7.7 %
Portland, OR	$545,908	-1.1 %	31.4 %	Neutral	11.9 %	-3.5 %	-9.6 %
Sacramento, CA	$575,319	-2.5 %	28.6 %	Seller	13.4 %	-6.9 %	-9.2 %
Pittsburgh, PA	$225,624	1.8 %	31.1 %	Buyer	8.8 %	8.1 %	-0.5 %
Cincinnati, OH	$300,755	2.9 %	31.8 %	Neutral	16.5 %	10.6 %	-5.4 %
Austin, TX	$428,956	-6.0 %	29.5 %	Buyer	11.2 %	-3.0 %	-10.5 %
Las Vegas, NV	$430,992	-1.2 %	30.0 %	Neutral	27.8 %	-7.9 %	-9.5 %
Kansas City, MO	$317,274	2.6 %	32.1 %	Neutral	13.4 %	4.9 %	-1.1 %
Columbus, OH	$324,608	1.5 %	34.2 %	Neutral	18.2 %	1.9 %	-12.2 %
Indianapolis, IN	$288,729	1.5 %	36.4 %	Buyer	18.2 %	11.4 %	-3.0 %
Cleveland, OH	$244,289	4.6 %	27.1 %	Seller	11.7 %	8.7 %	-2.3 %
San Jose, CA	$1,563,966	-1.7 %	19.6 %	Strong Seller	7.9 %	-3.6 %	19.4 %
Nashville, TN	$452,379	-0.2 %	34.1 %	Buyer	19.5 %	3.1 %	-12.8 %
Virginia Beach, VA	$362,433	1.7 %	26.2 %	Neutral	16.6 %	6.1 %	-10.8 %
Providence, RI	$507,577	2.3 %	24.2 %	Seller	10.9 %	1.5 %	10.1 %
Jacksonville, FL	$349,829	-3.4 %	29.0 %	Buyer	9.9 %	-5.0 %	-7.2 %
Milwaukee, WI	$374,084	3.5 %	22.4 %	Neutral	1.0 %	6.9 %	0.3 %
Oklahoma City, OK	$241,588	1.0 %	30.1 %	Neutral	14.8 %	1.8 %	-10.7 %
Raleigh, NC	$439,652	-2.5 %	36.8 %	Neutral	36.2 %	11.6 %	4.5 %
Memphis, TN	$241,573	-0.6 %	30.0 %	Buyer	8.9 %	-3.9 %	-14.0 %
Richmond, VA	$384,103	1.3 %	30.1 %	Seller	17.3 %	6.5 %	12.6 %
Louisville, KY	$271,220	3.4 %	32.7 %	Buyer	19.8 %	11.2 %	-3.9 %
New Orleans, LA	$255,808	0.6 %	24.7 %	Buyer	4.9 %	15.6 %	3.3 %
Salt Lake City, UT	$559,991	2.2 %	33.9 %	Neutral	19.8 %	6.2 %	-2.5 %
Hartford, CT	$387,227	4.1 %	20.9 %	Strong Seller	3.5 %	1.3 %	-1.1 %
Buffalo, NY	$280,447	3.6 %	23.0 %	Strong Seller	8.8 %	7.8 %	-3.1 %
Birmingham, AL	$255,704	0.4 %	24.5 %	Neutral	16.3 %	14.2 %	3.2 %
*Table ordered by market size

¹ The Zillow market report is a monthly overview of the national and local real estate markets. The report is compiled by Zillow Research. For more information, visit zillow.com/research.

About  Zillow Group
Zillow Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: Z and ZG) is reimagining real estate to make home a reality for more and more people. As the most visited real estate app and website in the United States, Zillow and its affiliates help people find and get the home they want by connecting them with digital solutions, dedicated real estate professionals, and easier buying, selling, financing, and renting experiences. 

Zillow Group's affiliates, subsidiaries and brands include Zillow^®, Zillow Premier Agent^®, Zillow Home Loans℠, Zillow Rentals^®, Trulia^®, Out East^®, StreetEasy^®, HotPads^®, ShowingTime+℠, Spruce^®, and Follow Up Boss^®. 

All marks herein are owned by MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow affiliate. Zillow Home Loans, LLC is an Equal Housing Lender, NMLS #10287 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). © 2025 MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow affiliate.

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SOURCE Zillow

FAQ

What did Zillow's Oct. 20, 2025 report say about US housing inventory for ZG investors?

Zillow reported national inventory is +14% year-over-year, giving buyers more options compared with last year.

How did new listings change in September 2025 according to Zillow (ZG)?

New listings rebounded to +3% year-over-year in September after a 3% annual decline in August.

What metro shifts should ZG shareholders note from Zillow's Oct. 20, 2025 market heat index?

Buyer's markets rose from 6 to 15 of the 50 largest metros; strongest buyer markets include Miami, New Orleans, Austin, Jacksonville and Indianapolis.

Does Zillow's report show sellers are making concessions as of Oct. 20, 2025?

Yes — Zillow shows 26.2% of listings nationally had a price cut, and sellers may offer concessions like closing-cost help and rate buydowns.

How did national home values perform in Zillow's Oct. 20, 2025 release relevant to ZG?

The national ZHVI was reported at $364,891 with 0.0% year-over-year change.