Zillow's July Market Report shows a 7% sales surge, but leading indicators point to a slower second half
Rhea-AI Summary
Zillow (NASDAQ:Z) reports that July U.S. home sales rose 7% year over year to an estimated 382,898 transactions, the strongest annual gain of 2026, largely reflecting offers accepted in June when mortgage rates were near 6.5%.
Newly pending listings, a leading indicator of future closings, increased just 0.3% from a year earlier and fell 7.7% from June, suggesting softer sales ahead amid higher mortgage rates. The typical U.S. home value reached $371,757, up 0.4% month over month and 1.1% year over year. The typical monthly mortgage payment was $1,888, 0.9% lower than a year before, while nationwide inventory stood at 1.41 million homes, 1.5% above last year with new listings up 3.1%. Rents averaged $1,962, 2.3% higher than a year ago, and 39.8% of rental listings offered concessions.
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News Market Reaction – Z
In the Aug 6 session, Z declined 7.40%, reflecting a notable negative market reaction. Argus tracked a peak move of +3.9% during that session. Argus tracked a trough of -6.5% from its starting point during tracking. Our momentum scanner triggered 33 alerts that day, indicating elevated trading interest and price volatility. Trading volume was very high at 3.5x the daily average, suggesting heavy selling pressure.
Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.
AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.
Newly pending sales fell sharply from June as mortgage rates hit their highest point in a year, signaling that July's sales bump may not last
- Home sales rose
7% year over year in July, the strongest annual gain of the year, according to Zillow's July Market Report. This largely represents transactions in which an offer was accepted in June. - Newly pending listings, a leading indicator of future closings, grew just
0.3% from a year ago and fell7.7% from June. - Inventory sits
1.5% above year-ago levels, helped by3.1% annual growth of new listings, extending the 32-month streak of supply gains.
July's headline sales figure reflects contracts signed weeks earlier, when mortgage rates were hovering in the
The affordability edge that has been a silver lining to an otherwise disappointing home shopping season may disappear in the coming months.
"July was a strong month for existing home sales, but unfortunately it may represent the peak of what we can expect for the rest of the year," said Mischa Fisher, chief economist at Zillow. "Closed sales in July mostly reflect offers accepted in June, when underlying pent-up demand for housing, combined with an improving rate environment, drove strong activity. Unfortunately, the weak growth in newly pending sales in July and the worsening rate environment portend a weaker half of the year for sales growth, with flat to declining transaction volumes for the remainder of the year in some regions."
Home Values & Mortgage Payments
- The typical
U.S . home value is$371,757 - The Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) rose
0.4% month over month in July. Home values are1.1% higher than a year earlier. - The monthly mortgage payment on a typical
U.S . home is$1,888 20% down payment and excluding taxes and insurance. That is0.9% lower than last year.
Inventory
- There were 1.41 million homes for sale nationwide in July.
- Active inventory was
1.5% higher than a year earlier. Inventory rose0.9% from June. - New for-sale listings totaled 387,203 in July, up
3.1% from a year earlier and down4.2% from June.
Sales
- 382,898 homes were sold in July, according to the preliminary Zillow sales count nowcast. That is
7% higher than a year earlier but down2.7% from June. These figures will be revised mid-month. - Newly pending listings, which measures listings that changed from for-sale to pending status rather than closed sales, shows
0.3% growth from a year earlier and a7.7% decrease from June.
Competition
- Homes took a median of 25 days to go pending in July. That was five days longer than a year earlier and one day longer than June.
- The share of listings with a price cut in July was
27.1% . That was down from27.4% a year earlier and up from25.7% in June. 30.8% of homes sold above list price in June, the most recent data available. That's compared to30.9% a year earlier and30.2% in May.
Rents
- The typical rent nationwide is
$1,962 2.3% higher than a year earlier and up0.3% from June. 39.8% of rental listings on Zillow offered a concession in July. That's up from36% a year earlier and up from39.7% in June.39.8% of rental listings on Zillow offered a concession in July. That's compared to36% a year earlier and39.7% in June.
Local data can be found on Zillow's market explorer. The Zillow August Market Report is expected to be released September 8.
Zillow July Market Report | ||||||||
Metro Area* | Typical | Home | Home | Inventory | Sales | Typical | Rent | Rent |
0.4 % | 1.1 % | 1.5 % | 7 % | 0.3 % | 2.3 % | |||
0.8 % | 4.6 % | 1.9 % | -0.8 % | 0.8 % | 4.5 % | |||
0.1 % | 0.9 % | -2.8 % | 2.1 % | 0.1 % | 1.5 % | |||
0.9 % | 4.8 % | 1 % | 7.2 % | 0.4 % | 5.1 % | |||
0.1 % | -2.2 % | -4.7 % | 5.1 % | 0 % | 0.1 % | |||
0.1 % | -1.9 % | 3 % | 6.5 % | 0.1 % | 0 % | |||
0.1 % | 0.1 % | 10.8 % | 4.5 % | 0.3 % | 0.4 % | |||
0.5 % | 2.4 % | 8.6 % | 2.3 % | 0.4 % | 3.4 % | |||
0.4 % | -0.2 % | -14.9 % | 15.8 % | 0.2 % | 1.4 % | |||
0.1 % | -1.5 % | -0.5 % | 2.8 % | 0.5 % | 2.1 % | |||
0.4 % | 2 % | 12.4 % | 13 % | -0.1 % | 2.6 % | |||
0 % | -1.1 % | -1.1 % | 5.9 % | 0.2 % | 0.3 % | |||
0.1 % | 2.1 % | -15.8 % | 7.9 % | 1.8 % | 9.7 % | |||
0.2 % | -0.1 % | -7.2 % | 1.3 % | 0.1 % | 2.5 % | |||
0.5 % | 1.8 % | 11.7 % | -2.7 % | 0.4 % | 3.6 % | |||
-0.3 % | -1.5 % | 17.2 % | -4.4 % | 0.5 % | 1.4 % | |||
0.5 % | 1.6 % | 19 % | 14 % | 0.4 % | 3.5 % | |||
0 % | 0.6 % | -7.7 % | 9.6 % | 0.3 % | 1.8 % | |||
0.3 % | -1.2 % | -8.9 % | 10.7 % | 0.1 % | -0.5 % | |||
-0.1 % | -1.7 % | -3.9 % | 7.8 % | 0.3 % | -0.9 % | |||
0.2 % | 0.5 % | 12.2 % | 13 % | 0.6 % | 2.5 % | |||
0.5 % | 3.3 % | 9.7 % | -0.6 % | 0.5 % | 4.3 % | |||
0.1 % | -1.7 % | -4.8 % | 11 % | -0.1 % | 0.6 % | |||
0 % | -0.6 % | 11.6 % | 7.2 % | 0.2 % | 0.6 % | |||
0 % | -1.9 % | 4 % | 8.2 % | 0.2 % | -1.8 % | |||
0.2 % | -0.3 % | 2.1 % | 5.5 % | 0.2 % | 0.3 % | |||
0.2 % | -0.3 % | -7.1 % | 9 % | -0.1 % | 1.7 % | |||
0.3 % | -0.2 % | 15.7 % | 2 % | 0.3 % | 3.4 % | |||
0.3 % | 2.2 % | 11.4 % | 9.6 % | 0.3 % | 2.7 % | |||
0.1 % | -4.5 % | -4.6 % | 19.7 % | 0.3 % | -0.9 % | |||
0 % | -2.8 % | 0.5 % | 6.3 % | -0.1 % | 0.2 % | |||
0.5 % | 3.7 % | 2.5 % | 11.9 % | 0.6 % | 3.7 % | |||
0.3 % | 1.2 % | 12.3 % | 18.2 % | 0.5 % | 1.9 % | |||
0.3 % | 0.9 % | 12.7 % | 8.4 % | 0.6 % | 2.7 % | |||
0.7 % | 3.5 % | 14.3 % | 7.3 % | 0.6 % | 4.3 % | |||
-0.6 % | -0.4 % | 0.4 % | 3.2 % | 1.4 % | 7 % | |||
0.2 % | -0.5 % | 8.7 % | 8.5 % | 0.4 % | 0.6 % | |||
0.5 % | 2.8 % | 4.8 % | 7.8 % | 0.8 % | 5.9 % | |||
0.7 % | 3.6 % | 5.3 % | -1.5 % | 0.2 % | 3.6 % | |||
0.2 % | -0.4 % | -14.3 % | 5.2 % | 0.3 % | 1.4 % | |||
0.8 % | 5.3 % | 9.7 % | 15.7 % | 0.5 % | 4.7 % | |||
0.2 % | 0.9 % | 5.9 % | 4.1 % | 0.2 % | 2.4 % | |||
0.1 % | -1.6 % | 12.1 % | 1.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.5 % | |||
0 % | 0 % | 11.5 % | 5.4 % | 0.3 % | 1.2 % | |||
0.4 % | 2.6 % | 4.5 % | 8.2 % | 0.2 % | 2.7 % | |||
0.2 % | 1.4 % | 17.4 % | 10.8 % | 0 % | 1.8 % | |||
0.2 % | 2.2 % | -2.1 % | 8.1 % | 0.2 % | 1.2 % | |||
0.2 % | 1.1 % | 0.9 % | 19.9 % | 0.1 % | 0.5 % | |||
0.8 % | 5 % | 5.5 % | 1.2 % | 0.3 % | 2.8 % | |||
0.9 % | 3.9 % | 16.8 % | 7.1 % | 0.6 % | 3.3 % | |||
0.4 % | 2.4 % | 6.4 % | 8.8 % | 0.3 % | 1.4 % | |||
*Table ordered by market size |
Forward-looking statements
This press release includes forward-looking statements about future housing market conditions, mortgage rates, rental trends and other economic factors. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to change. Actual outcomes may differ materially due to changes in economic and market conditions. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this release, and Zillow Group undertakes no obligation to update them.
About Zillow Group
Zillow Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: Z and ZG) is reimagining real estate to make home a reality for more and more people.
As the most visited real estate app and website in the United States, Zillow connects hundreds of millions of consumers with innovative technology, trusted agents and loan officers, and seamless digital solutions. With industry-leading tools and resources, Zillow supercharges real estate professionals so they can grow their businesses and deliver exceptional client experiences. For renters and housing providers, Zillow offers not only a robust marketplace but a set of end-to-end products and services to streamline applications, leases, payments and more.
Zillow's ecosystem spans the entire home journey — from dreaming and shopping to renting, buying, selling and financing.
Zillow Group's affiliates, subsidiaries and brands include Zillow®, Zillow Premier Agent®, Zillow Home Loans®, Zillow Rentals®, Zillow® New Construction, Trulia®, StreetEasy®, Out East®, HotPads®, Follow Up Boss®, ShowingTime®, dotloop® and Zillow® Closing.
All marks herein are owned by MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow affiliate. Zillow Home Loans, LLC is an Equal Housing Lender, NMLS #10287 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). © 2026 MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow affiliate.
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SOURCE Zillow