GDP Report: US GDP Due Thursday as Atlanta Fed Model Puts Growth at 3.3%
Before Thursday’s GDP report, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model puts third-quarter US growth at 3.3%, up from 2.2% in the spring, yet consumer spending adds about the same as then. By our calculation, government, business investment and companies stocking up supply nearly all of the pickup, despite a bigger drag from trade.
The short answer. Thursday’s report is the government’s first read on growth from July through September, and the estimates we found, from the New York Fed’s model at 2.7% to the Atlanta Fed’s at 3.3%, sit above the spring’s 2.2%. A faster headline would not by itself mean Americans spent faster, since in the Atlanta Fed model shoppers add almost nothing to the pickup. The same report measures how fast prices rose across the economy, at a 6.1% annual rate in the spring, which the Fed weighs when it sets interest rates, and by our count its first growth figure moves by half a point on average by the third estimate.
Three numbers to know before Thursday’s GDP report
On this page
GDP report Thursday: what the Fed models show for Q3
Two Federal Reserve bank models put third-quarter growth between 2.7% and 3.3%, above the pace BEA reported for the spring. Either reading would mean the economy picked up speed over the summer, though Thursday’s number is only the first of three estimates.
The report covers July, August and September, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis lists it for 8:30 a.m. ET on October 29 on its release schedule.
Two regional Federal Reserve banks publish running estimates before the release. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow stood at 3.3% on October 28, and the New York Fed’s Staff Nowcast was 2.7% on October 23. Both are computer models fed with each month’s data as it comes out. The Atlanta Fed says GDPNow “is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed.”
All of these figures are annualized. Each one takes a single quarter’s growth and scales it up to a full year, so the spring quarter’s 2.2% was 0.6% over the three months themselves, as BEA’s release notes.
How GDP is calculated, and what drives the Atlanta Fed’s Q3 estimate
GDP adds up what households, businesses and government spend on things made in the US. In the Atlanta Fed model, consumer spending adds about what it did in the spring, so the faster total comes from government, business investment and stocking up.
BEA measures output by spending. It adds consumer purchases, business investment, government purchases and exports, then subtracts imports, since a phone made abroad is someone else’s production. Goods that a company makes and keeps in storage also count, as a change in private inventories.
Each part’s contribution is measured in points of the growth rate. In GDPNow’s October 28 estimate, consumer spending adds 2.55 points, against 2.51 in the spring, so shoppers supply almost none of the pickup.
Show the data
| Item | Q2 2026, BEA | Q3 2026, GDPNow Oct. 28 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer spending | 2.51 pts | 2.55 pts | +0.04 pts |
| Business and housing | 1.35 pts | 1.59 pts | +0.24 pts |
| Stockpiling and trade combined | -1.63 pts | -1.31 pts | +0.32 pts |
| Government | -0.01 pts | 0.44 pts | +0.45 pts |
Government swings from a small minus in the spring to plus 0.44 point, and business investment in equipment, software and buildings adds more than it did. Stockpiling turns from a drag into plus 1.64 points, which more than makes up for trade, whose drag grows from 1.10 to 2.95 points.
By our calculation, consumer spending accounts for 0.04 of the 1.05-point gap between the model and the spring. Stockpiling can also give growth back later, since goods stored now can be sold from the warehouse next quarter without new production.
For a steadier read on Thursday, BEA publishes final sales to private domestic purchasers, which counts only what US households and businesses spend on goods, services, equipment and buildings. It grew 4.6% in the spring, about twice the 2.2% headline, according to BEA’s September 30 release.
Show the data
| Part of GDP | Q2 2026, BEA | Q3 2026, GDPNow model on Oct. 28 |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer spending | 2.51 | 2.55 |
| Business investment (equipment, software and research, buildings) | 1.25 | 1.73 |
| Housing | 0.10 | -0.13 |
| Change in inventories | -0.53 | 1.64 |
| Net exports (exports minus imports) | -1.10 | -2.95 |
| Government | -0.01 | 0.44 |
| Real GDP growth, annual rate | 2.2% | 3.3% |
Source: contributions in points of the annual growth rate; BEA Historical Comparisons, Q2 2026 third estimate; Atlanta Fed GDPNow model data, October 28, 2026. Rows may not add to the total because of rounding.
US GDP growth by quarter since 2023
The spring quarter’s 2.2% was slightly below the recent norm. Since the start of 2023, quarterly growth averaged 2.66% by our calculation from StockTitan’s data, though single quarters swung a lot around that.
StockTitan’s GDP growth page keeps BEA’s quarterly series, and the last two years jump around more than the average suggests. Growth was 4.0% in the second quarter of 2025 and 0.2% in the last quarter of that year.
Show the data
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Q1 2023 | 3.4% |
| Q2 2023 | 2.2% |
| Q3 2023 | 4.5% |
| Q4 2023 | 3.6% |
| Q1 2024 | 1.4% |
| Q2 2024 | 3.6% |
| Q3 2024 | 3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | 2.4% |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1% |
| Q2 2025 | 4.0% |
| Q3 2025 | 3.9% |
| Q4 2025 | 0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | 2.5% |
| Q2 2026 | 2.2% |
If Thursday’s figure came in near the Atlanta Fed model’s 3.3%, it would be the fastest quarter since the third quarter of 2025, when the economy grew 3.9%.
How much the first GDP estimate gets revised
Thursday’s number is a first draft, built before all of September’s data are in. By our count, BEA’s first estimate has moved by half a point on average by its third estimate since 2002, and by 0.3 point since 2021, with bigger moves once years of updates are counted.
BEA calls the first estimate the advance estimate, and its vintage history keeps every version it has published since 2002. Across 96 quarters, the third estimate differed from the advance one by 0.5 point or more in 41 of them.
Recent quarters moved less over the same two months, 0.3 point on average since 2021. The later gap is larger, about 1.1 points since 2002 against BEA’s latest figures. Those include BEA’s periodic benchmark updates, which its vintage history notes say bring “improvements in concepts and methods.”
Show the data
| Item | First estimate | Third estimate | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | 1.6% | 1.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Q2 2024 | 2.8% | 3.0% | +0.2 pts |
| Q3 2024 | 2.8% | 3.1% | +0.3 pts |
| Q4 2024 | 2.3% | 2.4% | +0.1 pts |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3% | -0.5% | -0.2 pts |
| Q2 2025 | 3.0% | 3.8% | +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4% | 0.5% | -0.9 pts |
| Q1 2026 | 2.0% | 2.1% | +0.1 pts |
| Q2 2026 | 1.5% | 2.2% | +0.7 pts |
The spring quarter shows how it happens. BEA first put growth at 1.5% on July 30 and raised it to 2.2% on September 30, mostly on investment, consumer spending and government spending. Data center construction was among the upward revisions named in the release’s technical notes.
The end of 2025 went the other way. BEA’s advance estimate, published on February 20, said 1.4%. The third estimate in April put it at 0.5%, and BEA’s figure after its September annual update is 0.2%.
The same September release carried BEA’s annual update, which reworked figures from 2021 through early 2026. It lifted growth in the first quarter of 2026 from 2.1% to 2.5%.
What the GDP report means for inflation and interest rates
The report also measures how fast prices rose across everything the economy produces. That gauge rose at a 6.1% annual rate in the spring quarter, the fastest since 2022, so Thursday’s price figures are a second headline for anyone following interest rates.
Measured in dollars, the economy grew 8.5% at an annual rate in the spring quarter. Once price increases are taken out it grew 2.2%, and BEA’s GDP price index rose at a 6.1% annual rate, the fastest since the second quarter of 2022, per its historical comparisons.
The Federal Reserve raised its target range for overnight interest rates to 3.75% to 4% on September 16 and said in its statement that “Inflation remains elevated.” Its October decision, announced on October 28, comes a day before the GDP report, and our Fed rate decision article covers what it weighed.
Longer-term borrowing costs have climbed over the past year. The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.00% on October 26 in StockTitan’s macro data, against 3.99% on October 28, 2025.
For stock investors, the economy-wide measure of company profits is not in Thursday’s report. In the spring, profits from companies’ current operations were 20.8% higher than a year earlier, and BEA adds third-quarter profits with its second estimate on November 25.
Thursday’s GDP release also reports the PCE price index for the whole quarter, which tracks the prices of what consumers buy (personal consumption expenditures). It rose at a 5.0% annual rate in the spring, and 3.3% without food and energy. BEA’s monthly personal income report, with the same index for September alone, comes out at the same minute. For the consumer side of prices, our September CPI report breaks down the latest monthly reading.
So on Thursday two figures sit beside the headline growth rate. One is what consumer spending adds, which the Atlanta Fed model puts near the spring’s pace, and the other is how fast prices rose across the economy.
| Measure, Q2 2026 | Annual rate |
|---|---|
| GDP in dollars (current-dollar GDP) | 8.5% |
| Real GDP, after price changes | 2.2% |
| GDP price index | 6.1% |
| Prices paid by US buyers (gross domestic purchases price index) | 5.6% |
| PCE price index | 5.0% |
| PCE price index without food and energy | 3.3% |
| Corporate profits from current production, change from a year earlier | 20.8% |
Source: BEA Historical Comparisons, Q2 2026 third estimate, September 30, 2026. Percent changes at annual rates, with normal seasonal swings removed, except profits.
What to watch
- Whether consumer spending adds about what it did in the spring, as the Atlanta Fed model has it: BEA’s advance estimate, October 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET
- How far the first figure moves, and what companies earned in the summer: BEA’s second estimate, with third-quarter corporate profits, on November 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET
- The third estimate of the quarter: BEA, December 23
- What the Fed makes of the summer’s growth and prices: its statement after the December 8 to 9 meeting
Our numbers
- 0.04 of 1.05 points: the part of the gap between the Atlanta Fed model’s October 28 estimate and BEA’s spring growth that consumer spending supplies, from the two sources’ contribution tables
- 0.5 point, and 41 of 96 quarters at half a point or more: the average move from BEA’s advance estimate to its third estimate, for the 96 quarters since 2002 with an advance estimate (2018Q4 and 2025Q3 had none), from BEA’s vintage history
- 0.3 point: the same average for the 21 quarters since 2021
- 1.1 points: the average move from the advance estimate to BEA’s latest figure, same 96 quarters
- 2.66%: the simple average of StockTitan’s 14 quarterly growth readings from the first quarter of 2023 to the second quarter of 2026
Frequently asked questions
When is the GDP report released?
BEA releases the advance estimate of third-quarter 2026 GDP on Thursday, October 29, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET. BEA updates the figure on November 25 and again on December 23, according to its release schedule.
What quarter does the October 29 GDP report cover?
It covers the third quarter of 2026, which is July, August and September. BEA publishes the first estimate about a month after a quarter ends.
What does annualized GDP growth mean?
It is the growth of one quarter scaled up to a full year, so quarters can be compared with each other and with yearly figures. The spring quarter’s 2.2% annualized growth was 0.6% over the three months themselves, according to BEA.
Are GDP and PCE inflation released at the same time?
Yes, this time both come from BEA at 8:30 a.m. ET on October 29. The GDP report carries price indexes for the whole quarter, while the separate personal income report gives the PCE price index for September alone.
What is the GDP forecast for the third quarter?
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model stood at 3.3% on October 28 and the New York Fed’s Staff Nowcast at 2.7% on October 23, both model estimates published by the two banks. StockTitan’s GDP growth page keeps BEA’s quarterly series, and the economic calendar lists each release time.
Sources
- StockTitan GDP growth page
- StockTitan economic calendar
- StockTitan economy dashboard
- StockTitan, Fed rate decision preview
- StockTitan, September 2026 CPI report
- BEA release schedule
- BEA, GDP (Third Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026, September 30, 2026
- BEA Historical Comparisons, Q2 2026
- BEA Vintage History of GDP and GDI
- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, GDPNow
- GDPNow commentaries
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Staff Nowcast listing
- Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
- Federal Reserve, FOMC meeting calendar
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