ADP National Employment Report Preliminary Estimate for January 24, 2026

Rhea-AI Summary

ADP (ADP) released the NER Pulse preliminary estimate for the four weeks ending January 24, 2026. U.S. private employers added an average of 6,500 jobs per week, up from 5,000 the prior week. The estimate uses a four-week moving average and is seasonally adjusted with a two-week lag.

The release notes the NER Pulse incorporates ADP's January benchmark to QCEW through March 2025, publishes weekly on Tuesdays at 8:15 a.m. ET, and the next update is scheduled for February 17, 2026.

Key Figures

Weekly job gains: 6,500 jobs Weekly job gains: 5,000 jobs Weekly job gains: 3,750 jobs +5 more

8 metrics

Weekly job gains 6,500 jobs Average per week, four weeks ending Jan 24, 2026

Weekly job gains 5,000 jobs Four-week moving average, week ending Jan 17, 2026

Weekly job gains 3,750 jobs Four-week moving average, week ending Jan 10, 2026

Weekly job gains 8,250 jobs Four-week moving average, week ending Jan 3, 2026

Historical window 12 weeks NER Pulse historical data included in release

Publication time 8:15 a.m. ET Weekly NER Pulse release time

Data lag Two weeks Lag used to improve estimate accuracy

Next release date February 17, 2026 Scheduled next NER Pulse

Market Reality Check

Price: $226.63 Vol: Volume 3,219,759 is 1.16x...

normal vol

$226.63 Last Close

Volume Volume 3,219,759 is 1.16x the 20-day average of 2,778,103, indicating elevated trading activity before this release. normal

Technical Shares at $226.63 are trading below the 200-day MA of $285.97 and sit 31.31% under the 52-week high.

Peers on Argus

ADP fell 2.05% while large software peers were mixed: ADBE (-0.06%), INTU (-0.27...

2 Up 1 Down

ADP fell 2.05% while large software peers were mixed: ADBE (-0.06%), INTU (-0.27%), CDNS (+2.62%), NOW (+3.87%). Momentum scanner shows MSTR down 4.86% with SHOP and SNOW up about 4%, supporting a stock-specific move rather than a sector-wide shift.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Feb 04 (Positive)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Feb 04	Employment report	Positive	-0.2%	Reported January 2026 private employment up 22,000 jobs and 4.5% pay growth.
Jan 28	Product launch	Positive	-1.5%	Announced ADP Assist AI agents to automate HR and payroll workflows.
Jan 28	Earnings results	Neutral	-1.5%	Released Q2 fiscal 2026 results and revised full‑year outlook via 8‑K and call.
Jan 27	Employment estimate	Neutral	-1.4%	NER Pulse showed 7,750 average weekly job gains with recent softening trend.
Jan 21	Corporate recognition	Positive	+0.7%	Named to Fortune’s World’s Most Admired Companies list for 20th year.

Pattern Detected

Recent ADP news, including employment reports, product launches and recognition, has often seen flat-to-negative price reactions, even when the underlying headlines were generally positive or neutral.

Recent Company History

Over the past few weeks, ADP has reported several notable developments. Employment reports on Jan 3 and Feb 4 highlighted modest private‑sector job gains and pay growth. On Jan 28, ADP released second‑quarter fiscal 2026 results and launched new AI agents to enhance HR and payroll workflows, yet shares fell about 1.5% on that day’s news. Corporate reputation was reinforced on Jan 21 with a 20th consecutive inclusion on Fortune’s Most Admired Companies list, which coincided with a small positive price reaction.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement provides a preliminary view of U.S. private‑sector job creation, with the NER Puls...

Analysis

This announcement provides a preliminary view of U.S. private‑sector job creation, with the NER Pulse showing an average of 6,500 jobs added per week over the four weeks ending January 24, 2026. Built on ADP’s seasonally adjusted, high‑frequency payroll data with a two‑week lag, it complements the monthly National Employment Report. In context of ADP’s recent employment releases and broader macro role, investors may track upcoming NER Pulse updates and revisions to gauge labor‑market momentum.

Key Terms

four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, high-frequency data, QCEW

4 terms

four-week moving average technical

"The NER Pulse is an estimate of the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average."

A four-week moving average takes the most recent four weekly values of a data series (like price, sales, or trading volume), averages them, and updates that average each week by dropping the oldest week and adding the newest. It smooths out short-term ups and downs—like looking at a smoothed path instead of every single bump—so investors can more easily see underlying trends, spot momentum changes, and avoid reacting to temporary noise.

seasonally adjusted technical

"The data is seasonally adjusted and have a two-week lag to allow for more complete and accurate estimates..."

Seasonally adjusted means that figures have been modified to remove the effects of regular and predictable changes that happen at specific times of the year, such as holidays or weather patterns. This adjustment helps reveal the true underlying trend by making comparisons across different periods more accurate. For investors, it provides a clearer picture of whether economic activity is genuinely improving or declining, without the noise of seasonal fluctuations.

high-frequency data technical

"These estimates are based on ADP's finely tuned, high-frequency data."

High-frequency data are streams of very frequent, time-stamped information about market activity — for example prices, trade sizes, and order flow updated many times per second. Investors use it like a high-speed camera to see short-lived patterns and reactions that slower reports miss, helping with rapid trading decisions, measuring market liquidity, and detecting unusual activity that can affect short-term risk and execution costs.

QCEW technical

"This week's NER Pulse reflects our January benchmark to March 2025 QCEW data."

The QCEW is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, a comprehensive count of payroll jobs and total wages by industry and location. Think of it as an official payroll snapshot that shows how many people are employed and how much they are paid in specific sectors and regions; investors use it to gauge local and industry hiring trends, wage growth, and the health of the labor market that can drive consumer demand and corporate earnings.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

ROSELAND, N.J., Feb. 10, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- For the four weeks ending January 24, 2026, U.S. private employers added an average of 6,500 jobs per week, according to the NER Pulse, a weekly update of the monthly ADP National Employment Report (NER). 

Job gains edged up from the previous week. These numbers are preliminary and could change as new data is added.

This week's NER Pulse reflects our January benchmark to March 2025 QCEW data.

Week ending	Change (Four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted)
1/24/2026	6,500
1/17/2026	5,000
1/10/2026	3,750
1/3/2026	8,250
12/27/2025	4,250
12/20/2025	8,000
12/13/2025	9,500
12/6/2025	2,500
11/29/2025	17,000
11/22/2025	20,000
11/15/2025	18,250
11/8/2025	1,000

The NER Pulse is an estimate of the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average. These estimates are based on ADP's finely tuned, high-frequency data. The data is seasonally adjusted and have a two-week lag to allow for more complete and accurate estimates of real-time employment trends.

The NER Pulse, including 12 weeks of historical data, publishes every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m. ET, except weeks when ADP Research publishes the monthly National Employment Report which is built on a reference week that includes the 12^th day of the month. The press release is available Tuesdays at 8:15 a.m. ET in the ADP Media Center. The NER Pulse is also available shortly after 8:15 a.m. ET on release days at ADP Research and in Main Street Macro.

The next NER Pulse will be released February 17, 2026. For upcoming release dates please refer to the calendar on the NER website.

The ADP National Employment Report and the NER Pulse are produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.

About ADP Research 
The mission of ADP Research is to make the future of work more productive through data-driven discovery. Companies, workers, and policy makers rely on our finely tuned data and unique perspective to make informed decisions that impact workplaces around the world.

To subscribe to monthly email alerts or obtain additional information about ADP Research, including employment and pay data, methodology, and a calendar of release dates, please visit https://www.adpresearch.com.

About ADP (NASDAQ: ADP)
ADP has been shaping the world of work with innovation and expertise for more than 75 years. As a global leader in HR and payroll solutions, ADP continuously works to solve business challenges for our clients and their workers, from simple, easy-to-use tools for small businesses to fully integrated platforms for global enterprises – and everything in between. Always Designing for People means we're focused on just that – people. We use our unmatched AI-driven insights and proven expertise to design innovative solutions that help people achieve greater success at work. More than 1.1 million clients across 140+ countries rely on ADP's exceptional service to support their people and drive their business forward. HR, Talent, Time Management, Benefits, Compliance, and Payroll. Learn more at ADP.com.

ADP, the ADP logo, and Always Designing for People, ADP National Employment Report, and ADP Research are registered trademarks of ADP, Inc. All other marks are the property of their respective owners.

Copyright © 2026 ADP, Inc. All rights reserved.

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SOURCE ADP, Inc.

FAQ

What did ADP (ADP) report for the four weeks ending January 24, 2026?

ADP reported an average gain of 6,500 jobs per week for the four weeks ending January 24, 2026. According to ADP, this preliminary NER Pulse figure is seasonally adjusted, based on a four-week moving average and may change as new data is added.

How does the January 24, 2026 NER Pulse compare to the prior week for ADP (ADP)?

The NER Pulse rose from 5,000 to 6,500 jobs per week week-over-week in the latest estimate. According to ADP, the increase reflects the four-week moving average and is based on high-frequency payroll data with a two-week lag for accuracy.

When will ADP (ADP) publish the next NER Pulse after January 24, 2026?

ADP will publish the next NER Pulse on February 17, 2026. According to ADP, the NER Pulse is released every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m. ET, except when the monthly National Employment Report is published using a reference week.

What methodology does ADP (ADP) use for the NER Pulse estimates?

ADP uses a four-week moving average, seasonal adjustment, and a two-week lag for the NER Pulse estimates. According to ADP, the measure draws on high-frequency payroll data and is benchmarked to QCEW through March 2025 for improved accuracy.

Where can investors access the ADP (ADP) NER Pulse releases and historical data?

Investors can access the NER Pulse at ADP media channels and research sites, with 12 weeks of historical data published. According to ADP, releases appear at 8:15 a.m. ET on release days and are posted to ADP Research and Main Street Macro.