ADP National Employment Report Preliminary Estimate for January 3, 2026
Rhea-AI Summary
ADP (ADP) released the NER Pulse preliminary estimate for the four weeks ending January 3, 2026, reporting that U.S. private employers added an average of 7,750 jobs per week (four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted).
Job gains have edged down for a third consecutive week from 8,000 the prior week and 11,000 two weeks earlier. The NER Pulse uses ADP's high-frequency payroll data, is seasonally adjusted with a two-week lag, and publishes weekly on Tuesdays at 8:15 a.m. ET. The next NER Pulse will be released February 10, 2026.
Positive
- 7,750 jobs/week four-week moving average for period ending 1/3/2026
- Weekly cadence provides high-frequency, seasonally adjusted employment insight
Negative
- Job gains down three straight weeks from 11,000 on 12/20/2025 to 7,750 on 1/3/2026
- Preliminary data may change as new inputs are added
News Market Reaction
On the day this news was published, ADP declined 1.42%, reflecting a mild negative market reaction.
Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.
Key Figures
Market Reality Check
Peers on Argus
ADP rose 0.12% with peers showing mixed but mostly positive moves (e.g., ADBE +1.1%, NOW +1.33%, INTU -0.42%). No peers appeared in the momentum scanner, and sector data do not confirm a synchronized move.
Historical Context
| Date | Event | Sentiment | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21 | Reputation recognition | Positive | +0.7% | Fortune named ADP a World’s Most Admired Company for 20th year. |
| Jan 20 | Employment data update | Negative | -2.0% | NER Pulse showed 8,000 weekly jobs and a modest hiring slowdown. |
| Jan 15 | Conference call notice | Neutral | +0.7% | Announcement of upcoming HII Q4 earnings call and webcast schedule. |
| Jan 14 | Share repurchase plan | Positive | +0.7% | Board authorized repurchase of $6B in common stock, replacing 2022 plan. |
| Jan 14 | Dividend declaration | Positive | +0.7% | Declared regular quarterly dividend of $1.70 per share with April payment. |
Recent ADP headlines have been mostly positive (buyback, dividend, recognition), with stock reactions showing modest, generally aligned moves. Employment report updates have coincided with a mild negative reaction.
Over the past few weeks, ADP issued several shareholder- and reputation-focused updates. On Jan 14, a new $6 billion repurchase authorization and a regular quarterly dividend of $1.70 per share coincided with a 0.66% gain. On Jan 21, recognition as one of Fortune’s Most Admired Companies for the 20th straight year aligned with a 0.74% rise. In contrast, the prior NER Pulse employment update on Dec 27, 2025 saw the stock fall 2.05%.
Market Pulse Summary
This announcement provides a preliminary view of private-sector job creation, with an average of 7,750 jobs per week over the four weeks ending Jan 3, 2026, and continues the NER Pulse series of 12 weeks of high-frequency, seasonally adjusted data. In recent months, ADP also highlighted shareholder returns via a $6 billion repurchase authorization and a $1.70 quarterly dividend. Investors tracking this series may watch subsequent revisions and upcoming releases, including the next update on Feb 10, 2026.
Key Terms
four-week moving average technical
seasonally adjusted technical
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Job gains edged down for a third straight week. These numbers are preliminary and could change as new data is added.
Week ending | Change |
1/3/2026 | 7,750 |
12/27/2025 | 8,000 |
12/20/2025 | 11,000 |
12/13/2025 | 10,500 |
12/6/2025 | 8,750 |
11/29/2025 | 13,250 |
11/22/2025 | 3,750 |
11/15/2025 | -8,500 |
11/8/2025 | -11,750 |
11/1/2025 | -7,500 |
10/25/2025 | -4,750 |
10/18/2025 | 11,500 |
The NER Pulse is an estimate of the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average. These estimates are based on ADP's finely tuned, high-frequency data. The data is seasonally adjusted and have a two-week lag to allow for more complete and accurate estimates of real-time employment trends.
The NER Pulse, including 12 weeks of historical data, publishes every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m. ET, except weeks when ADP Research publishes the monthly National Employment Report which is built on a reference week that includes the 12th day of the month. The press release is available Tuesdays at 8:15 a.m. ET in the ADP Media Center. The NER Pulse is also available shortly after 8:15 a.m. ET on release days at ADP Research and in Main Street Macro.
The next NER Pulse will be released February 10, 2026. For upcoming release dates please refer to the calendar on the NER website.
The ADP National Employment Report and the NER Pulse are produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
About ADP Research
The mission of ADP Research is to make the future of work more productive through data-driven discovery. Companies, workers, and policy makers rely on our finely tuned data and unique perspective to make informed decisions that impact workplaces around the world.
To subscribe to monthly email alerts or obtain additional information about ADP Research, including employment and pay data, methodology, and a calendar of release dates, please visit https://www.adpresearch.com.
About ADP (NASDAQ: ADP)
ADP has been shaping the world of work with innovation and expertise for more than 75 years. As a global leader in HR and payroll solutions, ADP continuously works to solve business challenges for our clients and their workers, from simple, easy-to-use tools for small businesses to fully integrated platforms for global enterprises – and everything in between. Always Designing for People means we're focused on just that – people. We use our unmatched AI-driven insights and proven expertise to design innovative solutions that help people achieve greater success at work. More than 1.1 million clients across 140+ countries rely on ADP's exceptional service to support their people and drive their business forward. HR, Talent, Time Management, Benefits, Compliance, and Payroll. Learn more at ADP.com.
ADP, the ADP logo, and Always Designing for People, ADP National Employment Report, and ADP Research are registered trademarks of ADP, Inc. All other marks are the property of their respective owners.
Copyright © 2025 ADP, Inc. All rights reserved.
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SOURCE ADP, Inc.
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