ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Prepayments Rise on Recent Refinance Activity and Serious Delinquencies Increase as Cure Rates Slow

Key Terms

single-month mortality financial

A single-month mortality is the count or rate of deaths that occur within a specific one-month period, used as a short-term snapshot of how deadly a disease, treatment, facility, or event has been over that month. Investors use it to spot sudden changes in health outcomes that can affect demand for medical services, drug safety perceptions, insurance claims, or regulatory scrutiny—think of it as a monthly thermometer that helps detect spikes or improvements in public health and related financial risks.

basis points financial

Basis points are a way to measure small changes in interest rates or percentages, where one basis point equals 0.01%. For example, if a loan's interest rate increases by 50 basis points, it's gone up by 0.50%. They help people understand tiny differences in rates that can add up over time, making financial comparisons clearer.

bps financial

bps stands for "basis points," a unit equal to one hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%). Investors and analysts use bps to describe small changes in interest rates, yields, fees, or margins without confusing decimals — for example, a 50 bps move means a 0.50% change. Using bps makes it easier to compare and communicate tiny but meaningful shifts that can significantly affect bond prices, loan costs, or investment returns.

foreclosure starts financial

Foreclosure starts count the number of homes where the lender has begun the legal process to take back a property because the borrower missed mortgage payments. Like the first visible crack in a building, a rise in foreclosure starts signals growing trouble in a housing market and can warn investors about higher loan losses, weaker property values, and stress for banks or real-estate funds with mortgage exposure.

loan-level database technical

A loan-level database is a detailed record of each individual loan within a portfolio or securitized pool, listing attributes like original balance, remaining balance, interest rate, repayment history, and borrower credit indicators. Think of it as a car’s full service log for every loan: it lets investors see how each asset is behaving instead of relying on summary figures. That visibility helps investors judge risk, value securities more accurately, detect trends, and test what-if scenarios.

non-current financial

Non-current describes assets or obligations that a company does not expect to convert to cash or settle within the next year (or its normal business cycle), meaning they are long-term rather than short-term. For investors, non-current items—like long-term loans, buildings, or patents—signal commitments or resources that affect a company’s long-range financial health and liquidity, similar to planning for a mortgage rather than a monthly bill.

ATLANTA & NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE), one of the world's leading providers of financial market technology and data powering global capital markets, today released the February 2026 ICE First Look at mortgage delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment trends.

"February saw a clear rebound in prepayment activity, with speeds rising 14% month over month and 80% year over year as the wave of refinances triggered by lower rates in January reached closing,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. “Delinquencies also edged higher, driven by seasonal increases in early-stage delinquencies and a notable rise in seriously past-due loans, though overall delinquency rates remain below pre-pandemic levels. These dynamics bear watching in the coming months, as default activity continues to trend off recent record lows."

Key takeaways from this month’s findings include:

• Prepayments rebounded: The single-month mortality (SMM) rate, a measure of prepayment speed, increased by 10 basis points (bps) in February to 0.82% and was up 80% from the same time last year. The uptick follows a refinance wave driven by January rate drops.

• Delinquencies edged up in February: The national delinquency rate rose by 7 bps in February to 3.72%, driven by a 4% seasonal rise in early (30-day) delinquencies and a 3% rise in seriously delinquent (90-plus day) loans. The rate is up 20 bps from the same time last year but remains 12 bps below its February 2020 pre-pandemic benchmark.

• Combined serious delinquency and foreclosure volumes increased: At the end of January, 878,000 loans were in a state of severe delinquency or foreclosure. That figure is up 175,000 (25%) over the past four months, the highest since June 2022, and the highest since June 2018 when excluding the immediate effect of the pandemic. FHA loans account for roughly 80% of the recent increase.

• Cure rates have slowed: The rise in seriously delinquent loans is driven primarily by a decline in cure activity rather than a spike in new defaults. While the number of new loans that have become 90-plus days delinquent over the past four months has remained roughly flat on an annual basis, cure rates among 90-plus day delinquent mortgages are down by more than 40%.

• Foreclosure activity is rising off recent record lows: February saw 35,000 foreclosure starts, down 16% from January but up 7% year over year. Foreclosure sales declined 13% in the month but rose 25% year over year. The share of loans in active foreclosure remains 6 bps below pre-pandemic levels, though it rose by 4% in February and is up 25% from a year ago.

Data as of February 28, 2026
Total U.S. loan delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure): 3.72%
Month-over-month change: 2.00%
Year-over-year change: 5.61%

Total U.S. foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate: 0.48%
Month-over-month change: 4.03%
Year-over-year change: 24.63%

Total U.S. foreclosure starts: 35,000
Month-over-month change -15.86%
Year-over-year change: 6.46%

Monthly prepayment rate (SMM): 0.82%
Month-over-month change: 14.13%
Year-over-year change: 79.89%

Foreclosure sales: 7,000
Month-over-month change: -13.60%
Year-over-year change: 24.70%

Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 2,046,000
Month-over-month change: 40,000
Year-over-year change: 133,000

Number of properties that are 90 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 612,000
Month-over-month change: 17,000
Year-over-year change: 84,000

Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: 266,000
Month-over-month change: 10,000
Year-over-year change: 55,000

Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure: 2,312,000
Month-over-month change: 50,000
Year-over-year change: 188,000

Top 5 States by Non-Current* Percentage
Louisiana:		8.64%
Mississippi:		8.51%
Alabama:		6.39%
Arkansas:		6.08%
Indiana:		5.96%
Bottom 5 States by Non-Current* Percentage
Colorado:		2.41%
Hawaii:		2.39%
Montana:		2.35%
Washington:		2.26%
Idaho:		2.16%
Top 5 States by 90+ Days Delinquent Percentage
Mississippi:		2.59%
Louisiana:		2.47%
Alabama:		1.93%
Arkansas:		1.77%
Georgia:		1.71%
Top 5 States by 12-Month Change in Non-Current* Percentage
Hawaii:		-2.93%
South Dakota:		-0.39%
Florida:		1.96%
Montana:		2.21%
New York:		2.82%
Bottom 5 States by 12-Month Change in Non-Current* Percentage
Utah:		18.83%
Arizona:		14.90%
Maryland:		14.36%
Nevada:		12.96%
Minnesota:		12.05%

*Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a percent of active loans in that state.

Notes:

1) Totals are extrapolated based on ICE’s loan-level database of mortgage assets.

2) All whole numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand, except foreclosure starts and sales, which are rounded to the nearest hundred.

The company will provide a more in-depth review of mortgage performance data in its monthly Mortgage Monitor report, an in-depth analysis of mortgage and housing market trends that is supplemented by charts and graphs. The Mortgage Monitor report is available online at https://www.icemortgagetechnology.com/resources/data-reports.

For more information about gaining access to ICE’s loan-level database, email ICE-MortgageMonitor@ice.com.

About Intercontinental Exchange

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE) is a Fortune 500 company that designs, builds and operates digital networks that connect people to opportunity. We provide financial technology and data services across major asset classes helping our customers access mission-critical workflow tools that increase transparency and efficiency. ICE’s futures, equity, and options exchanges – including the New York Stock Exchange – and clearing houses help people invest, raise capital and manage risk. We offer some of the world’s largest markets to trade and clear energy and environmental products. Our fixed income, data services and execution capabilities provide information, analytics and platforms that help our customers streamline processes and capitalize on opportunities. At ICE Mortgage Technology, we are transforming U.S. housing finance, from initial consumer engagement through loan production, closing, registration and the long-term servicing relationship. Together, ICE transforms, streamlines and automates industries to connect our customers to opportunity.

Trademarks of ICE and/or its affiliates include Intercontinental Exchange, ICE, ICE block design, NYSE and New York Stock Exchange. Information regarding additional trademarks and intellectual property rights of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. and/or its affiliates is located here. Key Information Documents for certain products covered by the EU Packaged Retail and Insurance-based Investment Products Regulation can be accessed on the relevant exchange website under the heading “Key Information Documents (KIDS).”

Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 – Statements in this press release regarding ICE's business that are not historical facts are "forward-looking statements" that involve risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of additional risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, see ICE's Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, including, but not limited to, the risk factors in ICE's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, as filed with the SEC on February 5, 2026.

Category: Mortgage Technology

Source: Intercontinental Exchange

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260325046146/en/

ICE Media Contact

Johnna Szegda

johnna.szegda@ice.com

+1 (404) 798-1155

ICE Investor Contact:

Steve Eagerton

steve.eagerton@ice.com

+1 (904) 854-3683

investors@ice.com

Source: Intercontinental Exchange