Global Hiring Outlook Strengthens for Q4 as Workforce Transformation Drives Demand for New Skills

ManpowerGroup’s Q4 2026 Employment Outlook Survey shows stronger global hiring plans, driven largely by shifting roles and skills rather than simple expansion.

Rhea-AI Summary

ManpowerGroup (MAN) reports that global hiring momentum is expected to strengthen slightly in Q4 2026, with a Net Employment Outlook (NEO) of 29%, up two points quarter-over-quarter and six points year-over-year, based on a survey of 39,878 employers in 42 countries.

Among employers planning to add staff, 62% say changing roles and skills are the main reason, while 39% cite company expansion and 32% are backfilling positions. Overall, 43% of employers plan to increase headcount between October and December, 14% expect reductions and 41% foresee no change, with cuts driven more by a soft economy than by AI or automation. Entry-level demand remains resilient, with 45% of employers increasing early-career hiring versus 20% reducing it. Construction & Real Estate and Finance & Insurance show the strongest sector outlooks at 36%, while the Americas lead regions with a 36% NEO and India tops all countries at 54%.

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Market Context

At publication, MAN was up 0.76% pre-headline while BBSI, NSP and KFRC were up 1.44%, 1.54% and 2.83...

Analysis

At publication, MAN was up 0.76% pre-headline while BBSI, NSP and KFRC were up 1.44%, 1.54% and 2.83%, respectively, providing sector-aligned market context for the survey.

Key Figures

Q4 2026 Net Employment Outlook: 29% Survey scope: 39,878 employers across 42 countries Employers increasing staffing: 43% +5 more

Q4 2026 Net Employment Outlook

29%

Up 2 points from Q3 2026 and 6 points year-over-year

Survey scope

39,878 employers across 42 countries

Q4 2026 Employment Outlook Survey

Employers increasing staffing

43%

October–December 2026

Employers reducing staffing

14%

October–December 2026

Changing roles and skills

62%

Primary hiring driver among employers planning to add staff

Entry-level hiring increases

45%

Employers adding early-career talent compared with 2025

Entry-level hiring reductions

20%

Employers pulling back early-career hiring compared with 2025

Time-to-hire unchanged

41%

Compared with 2025

Historical Context

2 past events · Latest: Jul 16

2 events

1. Jul 16

   Q2 earnings report

   24h Move

   +32.4%

   Revenue increased and ManpowerGroup returned to profitability during the second quarter.

2. Jul 22

   AI workforce research

   24h Move

   -0.0%

   Research found limited leadership readiness for AI-enabled work and substantial employee resistance.

24h Move is the share-price change in the day after each event; other market factors may also have contributed.

Key Terms

net employment outlook (neo), time-to-hire

2 terms

net employment outlook (neo) technical

"The global Net Employment Outlook (NEO) for Q4 2026 stands at 29%"

Net Employment Outlook (NEO) is a survey-based measure that reports the difference between the percentage of employers who say they plan to hire and the percentage who expect to reduce staff over a coming period, usually a quarter. It matters to investors because it functions like a “net score” of hiring sentiment: a positive NEO signals more firms planning to add jobs than cut them, which can indicate stronger consumer demand, upward pressure on wages, and implications for company costs and economic growth.

time-to-hire technical

"employers are not yet seeing a universal improvement in time-to-hire"

Time-to-hire is the average number of days between when a job opening is posted or a candidate enters the recruitment process and when an offer is accepted or the position is filled. It’s a hiring speed metric that shows how quickly a company can add needed people. Like the time it takes to get a contractor to start a home project, shorter time-to-hire can indicate smoother operations and lower recruiting costs, while longer times can signal bottlenecks or scaling challenges.

AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

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Employer hiring intentions rise six points year-over-year, with nearly two-thirds of those expanding headcount hiring for new capabilities and just one third replacing like-for-like skills

MILWAUKEE, Sept. 8, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Employers expect Global hiring momentum to strengthen slightly heading into the final quarter of 2026, according to ManpowerGroup's latest Employment Outlook Survey of 39,878 employers across 42 countries. The global Net Employment Outlook (NEO) for Q4 2026 stands at 29%, up two points from the previous quarter and six points from the same period last year.

Beneath the headline, the data points to a workforce in transition. Among employers planning to add staff, 62% cite changing roles and skills as the primary driver, including branching into new areas, new expertise demanded by advancing technology, and shifts in the skills their services require.

"This data demonstrates employers continue to place high value on human skills, even as the nature of work shifts with technological advancements," said Jonas Prising, ManpowerGroup Chair & CEO. "Nearly two-thirds of employers tell us they are hiring because the roles and skills their organizations need are changing – many are reconsidering the tasks within jobs rather than displacing full positions. Over the next five years, the defining challenge will be redesigning work at scale. The most forward-thinking employers are building the skills they need from both within and outside their companies – shaping agile workforces that can adapt as organizations seek to realize the true value of AI."

Forty-three percent of employers globally plan to increase staffing between October and December, compared with 14% anticipating reductions, while 41% expect staffing levels to remain unchanged. Expected decreases are driven more by a soft economic environment as opposed to AI or automation.

Entry-Level Hiring Holds Firm as AI Reshapes Early-Career Work
The survey also points to a more surprising finding on early-career hiring. Across every industry surveyed, more employers report increasing entry-level hiring than cutting it, with 45% adding early-career talent compared with 2025 against 20% pulling back. Where employers are scaling back, cost pressure and a lack of experience weigh more heavily than AI, suggesting automation is reshaping early-career roles rather than eliminating the need for them.

Changing Roles and Skills Drive a Growing Share of Hiring
While company expansion (39%) remains the single most common reason employers are adding staff, the survey shows that hiring is increasingly about transformation rather than growth alone. At the same time, 21% of organizations increasing headcount pointed to advancing tech, while 16% cite adapting to shifts in the skills their services require.

At the same time, 32% of employers adding staff say they are backfilling positions. Together, the findings describe a labor market in which employers are hiring to reshape their workforces, not simply to enlarge them, as the composition of roles and the skills behind them continue to change.

AI Has Yet to Make Hiring Consistently Faster
Despite increasing use of AI across recruitment, employers are not yet seeing a universal improvement in time-to-hire. Twenty-eight percent say their average time-to-hire has become faster compared with 2025, while 41% say it has remained about the same and 30% say it has become slower.

Sector and Regional Highlights

Sector Insights

• Construction & Real Estate and Finance & Insurance report the strongest hiring intentions for Q4 2026 at 36%, followed by Information at 35%.
• Construction & Real Estate posted the largest year-over-year improvement among sectors, rising 13 points.

Regional Hiring Plans

• The Americas posts the strongest regional hiring outlook at 36%, up two points quarter-over-quarter and 11 points year-over-year.
  • Brazil (53%), Panama (49%), Mexico (41%) and the United States (36%) report some of the strongest hiring intentions in the region, with employers in Panama posting the largest year-over-year improvement worldwide, up 26 points.
    
    
• Asia Pacific reports a 34% NEO, up six points quarter-over-quarter and three points year-over-year.
  • India leads all 42 countries surveyed at 54%, followed by Vietnam at 36% and China at 34%.
    
    
• Europe and the Middle East reports a 22% NEO, up five points quarter-over-quarter and five points year-over-year.
  • Employers in The United Arab Emirates (41%), Sweden (39%) and Israel (34%) report the region's most optimistic hiring plans.
  • Among the region's largest economies, the United Kingdom (23%) leads, followed by Germany (15%), and France (13%).

To explore global hiring trends in detail, explore the complete Q4 2026 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey.

The next survey will be released in December 2026, reporting hiring expectations for Q1 2027. The 2027 cycle marks the 65th anniversary of the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey.

ABOUT THE SURVEY
The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, now in its 64th year, is the most comprehensive, forward-looking employment survey of its kind, used globally as a key labor market indicator. The Net Employment Outlook (NEO) is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting a decrease in hiring activity.

SURVEY METHODOLOGY
The data for the fourth quarter was collected between July 1–31, 2026. The findings are based on interviews with 39,878 public and private employers across 42 countries to measure anticipated employment changes and trends. The results reflect employer sentiment at the time of data collection and may not capture the potential impact of subsequent events. Size of organization and sector are standardized across all countries and territories to allow international comparisons.

ABOUT MANPOWERGROUP
ManpowerGroup^® (NYSE: MAN), the leading global workforce solutions company, helps organizations transform in a fast-changing world of work by sourcing, assessing, developing, and managing the talent that enables them to win. We develop innovative solutions for hundreds of thousands of organizations every year, providing them with skilled talent while finding meaningful, sustainable employment for millions of people across a wide range of industries and skills. Our expert family of brands – Manpower, Experis, and Talent Solutions – creates substantially more value for candidates and clients across more than 70 countries and territories and has done so for more than 75 years. We are recognized consistently as a best place to work for Women, Inclusion, Equality, and Disability, and in 2026 ManpowerGroup was named one of the World's Most Ethical Companies for the 17th time; all confirming our position as the brand of choice for in-demand talent.

For more information, visit www.manpowergroup.com, or follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook, and Bluesky.

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This report contains forward-looking statements, including statements regarding labor demand in certain regions, countries and industries, and economic uncertainty. Actual events or results may differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements, due to risks, uncertainties and assumptions. These factors include those found in the Company's reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including the information under the heading "Risk Factors" in its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, whose information is incorporated herein by reference. ManpowerGroup disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking or other statements in this release, except as required by law.

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SOURCE ManpowerGroup

FAQ

What is the Net Employment Outlook (NEO) and how is it calculated?

The Net Employment Outlook (NEO) is calculated by taking the percentage of employers expecting to increase hiring and subtracting the percentage expecting to decrease hiring. It is used as a forward-looking indicator of labor market conditions.

How is AI currently affecting hiring speed according to the survey?

Despite greater use of AI in recruitment, 28% of employers say time-to-hire is faster than in 2025, 41% say it is about the same and 30% report it has become slower, indicating that AI has not yet produced a consistent reduction in hiring times.

What does the survey reveal about entry-level hiring trends?

Across all industries surveyed, 45% of employers are increasing early-career hiring compared with 2025, while 20% are pulling back. Where entry-level hiring is reduced, cost pressures and lack of experience are cited more often than AI, suggesting automation is changing early-career roles rather than eliminating them.

Which sectors show the strongest hiring intentions for Q4 2026?

Construction & Real Estate and Finance & Insurance report the strongest Q4 2026 hiring intentions with NEOs of 36%, followed by the Information sector at 35%. Construction & Real Estate also records the largest year-over-year sector improvement, rising 13 points.

Which regions and countries have the most optimistic hiring outlooks?

The Americas post the strongest regional outlook with a 36% NEO, up two points quarter-over-quarter and 11 points year-over-year. Asia Pacific records a 34% NEO, and Europe and the Middle East report 22%. Among countries, India leads at 54%, followed by Brazil at 53%, Panama at 49%, Vietnam at 36% and the United Arab Emirates at 41%, with Panama showing the largest year-over-year improvement, up 26 points.

When was the Q4 2026 Employment Outlook Survey conducted and what is its scope?

Data for the Q4 2026 survey were collected between July 1 and July 31, 2026. The findings are based on interviews with 39,878 public and private employers across 42 countries, with organization size and sector standardized to support international comparisons. Results reflect employer sentiment at the time of data collection and may not include the impact of later events.

When will the next ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey be released?

The next Employment Outlook Survey is scheduled for release in December 2026 and will cover hiring expectations for Q1 2027. The 2027 cycle will mark the 65th anniversary of the survey.