AI Revenue Questions Pull Semiconductor Stocks Off October Highs

Micron's analyst price-target increase contrasted with falling memory stocks, while TSMC reported 54.6% year-over-year September revenue growth.

Rhea-AI Summary

Micron Technology (MU) shares declined alongside other memory producers as semiconductor stocks retreated during the week ended October 9. Rosenblatt raised its Micron price target to $1,900 from $1,500 on October 6. The sector pullback followed reporting that OpenAI's annualized revenue was nearing $50 billion at September's end, below approximately $70 billion cited in earlier media reports.

TSMC (TSM) reported September revenue of NT$511.86 billion, up 54.6% year over year and down 0.6% from August. Nine-month revenue reached NT$3.90 trillion, up 41.1%. TSMC and NVIDIA (NVDA) shares reached record highs on October 5. NVIDIA had announced a $150 billion buyback authorization on September 28. Intel (INTC) shares fell on October 5 amid uncertainty over its role in the planned Terafab complex; Intel says it will remain involved, but its scope is not finalized.

9 points · 0 major

PositiveiHow this balance works

How this balance works

Rhea-AI gives every point it takes from this document a weight. Minor counts 1, Moderate 3 and Major 9, so one Major point outweighs several Minor ones. The bar adds up the weights on each side, and when neither side holds more than 65% of the total the balance reads Mixed.

It reads the document as published, with the same rules for every company, and it does not look at what the market expected or at how the stock traded, so a point can be objectively good on a day the stock falls.

Rhea-AI Sentiment measures something else, the tone of the wording.

How the balance worksHow Sentiment works

0 major · 4 points

Hollow bars mark forward-looking points. How the balance works

Positive

• Moderate pointNVIDIA announced a $150 billion share buyback authorization on September 28. 13% of market cap
• Moderate pointTSMC September revenue rose 54.6% year over year to NT$511.86 billion, but fell 0.6% from August.
• Minor pointTSMC revenue for the first nine months of 2026 reached NT$3.90 trillion, up 41.1%.
• Minor point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.Rosenblatt raised Micron's price target to $1,900 from $1,500 on October 6.
• Minor pointTSMC shares reached a record high on October 5 following confirmation of early-stage Terafab discussions.

4 minor points

• Minor pointNVIDIA shares reached a record high October 5, gaining approximately 24.8% year to date.
• Minor pointNVIDIA shares advanced approximately 14% since its August 26 earnings report.
• Minor pointNVIDIA shares advanced September 28 while semiconductor shares declined.
• Minor pointIntel shares remained up approximately 215% year to date as of the October 5 close.

Negative

• Moderate pointIntel's Terafab role has not been finalized, although the company says it will remain involved.
• Minor pointMicron shares declined alongside other memory producers as sector sentiment weakened.
• Minor pointIntel shares declined October 5 after Musk indicated TSMC could participate in Terafab.
• Minor pointTSMC's potential Terafab participation remains early-stage discussions, not a confirmed partnership.

News Explained

Arm’s Qualcomm licensing dispute went to the jury after a five-day trial on October 9; the judge had not ruled whether a clause could let Qualcomm stop royalty payments for five years.

Key Figures

OpenAI annualized revenue: Nearing $50 billion

OpenAI annualized revenue

Nearing $50 billion

At the end of September; reported to investors

Key Terms

annualized revenue, share buyback authorization

2 terms

annualized revenue financial

"its annualized revenue was nearing $50 billion at the end of September"

Annualized revenue is a way to estimate how much money a company will earn in a year based on its current sales over a shorter period. It helps investors understand the company's consistent earning power, kind of like projecting your monthly earnings to see what you might make in a full year.

share buyback authorization financial

"announcing a $150 billion share buyback authorization"

A share buyback authorization is a formal approval that lets a company repurchase its own outstanding shares up to a specified amount or within a set time frame. Investors care because buying back shares reduces the number of shares available, which can raise earnings per share and concentrate ownership—similar to a company collecting and destroying extra tickets to increase the value of the remaining ones—and it signals how management prefers to deploy cash.

AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

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VANCOUVER, BC, Oct. 10, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Stock Preachers News Commentary - Semiconductor equities began October on firm footing, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF advancing for five consecutive sessions and the sector's largest company reaching a record high, before retreating through the week ended October 9. Sentiment shifted on Thursday, when the Financial Times reported that OpenAI had told investors its annualized revenue was nearing $50 billion at the end of September, below the approximately $70 billion figure that had been cited in media reports. Because semiconductor valuations are closely tied to expectations for AI infrastructure spending, the report weighed on the group, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index finished the week lower while the broader market was more resilient. Active Companies from around the markets with current developments this week include: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE: TSM), NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC), Arm Holdings plc (NASDAQ: ARM), Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU).

The pullback follows a period of substantial gains. The PHLX Semiconductor Index was up 73% year to date as of late September, and several of the sector's largest constituents have recorded triple-digit gains in 2026. Higher long-term Treasury yields and a rise in crude oil prices added pressure midweek, as higher discount rates tend to weigh most on companies valued on long-term growth expectations.

Company-specific developments shaped performance within the group. Two companies reported record milestones early in the week, while others faced open questions regarding a manufacturing partnership, ongoing litigation and the sustainability of AI-related demand.

CONTINUED... Read the full weekly market analysis in The Roadmap at: stockpreachers.com

In other industry developments and happenings in the market this week include:

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE: TSM)

TSMC shares reached a record high on October 5 after Elon Musk confirmed early-stage discussions about a role for the company in his planned Terafab chip complex in Texas, calling them "just discussions." On October 8 the company reported September revenue of NT$511.86 billion, up 54.6% from a year earlier and down 0.6% from August, bringing revenue for the first nine months of 2026 to NT$3.90 trillion, up 41.1%.

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA)

NVIDIA shares reached a record high on October 5, bringing their year-to-date gain to approximately 24.8% and their advance since the August 26 earnings report to approximately 14%. The company has also shown relative strength during recent sector weakness: on September 28, when semiconductor shares declined on AI safety concerns, NVIDIA advanced after announcing a $150 billion share buyback authorization and releasing two open-source tools designed to help control AI agents.

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC)

Intel shares declined on October 5 after Musk indicated that TSMC could participate in Terafab, a project Intel joined as a partner in April. On October 8 Musk said his companies will build and operate the Texas complex and that another chipmaker could at most sublease part of the site. Intel has said it will remain involved, although the scope of its role has not been finalized. Despite the decline, Intel shares were up approximately 215% year to date as of the October 5 close.

Arm Holdings plc (NASDAQ: ARM)

Arm shares declined during a five-day jury trial in federal court in Wilmington, Delaware, where Qualcomm alleges that Arm breached their licensing agreements and sought to undermine Qualcomm's dealings with Meta Platforms. Arm denies the claims. The case went to the jury on October 9, and the judge has not yet ruled on whether a clause that could let Qualcomm stop paying royalties for five years is enforceable. Arm reports earnings on November 4.

Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU)

Micron shares declined alongside other memory producers despite Rosenblatt raising its price target to $1,900 from $1,500 on October 6, citing a beat-and-raise quarter and the potential for buybacks. Memory producers had advanced with the broader group in early October before sentiment shifted later in the week.

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FAQ

AI-generated questions and answers. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

What was Rosenblatt's new price target for Micron (MU)?

Rosenblatt raised its Micron price target to $1,900 from $1,500 on October 6. The analyst cited a beat-and-raise quarter and the potential for buybacks. Micron shares nevertheless declined alongside other memory producers.

How much did TSMC's September 2026 revenue grow?

TSMC reported September revenue of NT$511.86 billion, up 54.6% from a year earlier and down 0.6% from August. Revenue for the first nine months of 2026 reached NT$3.90 trillion, up 41.1%.

What did Musk say about Intel's potential role at the Terafab complex?

Musk said on October 8 that his companies would build and operate the Texas complex and another chipmaker could at most sublease part of the site. Intel joined the project as a partner in April and says it will remain involved, although its role has not been finalized.